At The Races


Race Cards, Odds & Results Sun 3rd May

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Next 5 Races
  1. 18:49 - Philadelphia Park, 5f 110y
  2. 18:51 - Belmont Park, 1m 110y
  3. 19:00 - Prairie Meadows, 1m 70y
  4. 19:00 - Woodbine, 7f
  5. 19:12 - Tampa Bay Downs, 1m 39y
Latest Replays
  1. 17:40 - Sligo, 1m 2f 110y
  2. 17:10 - Sligo, 1m 2f 110y
  3. 16:40 - Sligo, 1m 4f 110y
  4. 16:05 - Sligo, 1m 4f 110y
  5. 15:30 - Sligo, 6f 200y
Hamilton
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. 13:40 - 5f 4y (8 ran)
  3. 14:10 - 6f 5y (13 ran)
  4. 14:45 - 1m 5f 9y (11 ran)
  5. 15:20 - 1m 3f 16y (8 ran)
  6. 15:55 - 5f 4y (6 ran)
  7. 16:30 - 1m 65y (10 ran)
  8. 17:05 - 1m 65y (5 ran)
Newmarket
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. 13:50 - 1m 4f (13 ran)
  3. 14:25 - 1m 1f (8 ran)
  4. 15:00 - 6f (22 ran)
  5. 15:40 - 1m (13 ran)
  6. 16:15 - 5f (11 ran)
  7. 16:50 - 1m 2f (9 ran)
  8. 17:25 - 1m 2f (7 ran)
Salisbury
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. 13:35 - 6f (11 ran)
  3. 14:05 - 1m 6f 21y (9 ran)
  4. 14:40 - 5f (6 ran)
  5. 15:15 - 1m 1f 198y (8 ran)
  6. 15:50 - 1m 4f (8 ran)
  7. 16:20 - 6f 212y (10 ran)
  8. 16:55 - 6f 212y (11 ran)
Sligo (IRE)
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. 14:20 - 6f 200y (6 ran)
  3. 14:55 - 6f 200y (7 ran)
  4. 15:30 - 6f 200y (9 ran)
  5. 16:05 - 1m 4f 110y (4 ran)
  6. 16:40 - 1m 4f 110y (8 ran)
  7. 17:10 - 1m 2f 110y (5 ran)
  8. 17:40 - 1m 2f 110y (9 ran)
Kenilworth (RSA)
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  2. 11:20 - 5f 212y (7 ran)
  3. 11:55 - 6f 211y (8 ran)
  4. 12:30 - 4f 214y (13 ran)
  5. 13:05 - 4f 214y (10 ran)
  6. 13:40 - 4f 214y (7 ran)
  7. 14:15 - 1m 4f 95y (10 ran)
  8. 14:50 - 6f 211y (12 ran)
  9. 15:25 - 7f 210y (9 ran)
  10. 16:05 - 7f 210y (9 ran)
Longchamp (France)
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. 13:00 - 1m 3f 204y (4 ran)
  3. 13:30 - 6f 211y (8 ran)
  4. 14:08 - 7f 209y (12 ran)
  5. 14:40 - 1m 1f 43y (5 ran)
  6. 15:10 - 1m 2f 96y (7 ran)
  7. 15:50 - 1m 7f 90y (8 ran)
  8. 16:20 - 7f 209y (8 ran)
  9. 17:00 - 7f 209y (8 ran)
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  • Archived race video footage available
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Albuquerque (USA)
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. R1 (20:30) - 1f 130y (10 run)
  3. R2 (20:58) - 3f 210y (8 run)
  4. R3 (21:26) - 1f 80y (9 run)
  5. R4 (21:54) - 1f 180y (10 run)
  6. R5 (22:22) - 4f 120y (8 run)
  7. R6 (22:50) - 7f (7 run)
  8. R7 (23:18) - 5f (9 run)
  9. R8 (23:46) - 6f (7 run)
  10. R9 (00:14) - 5f (8 run)
  11. R10 (00:42) - 5f (10 run)
Arlington (USA)
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  2. R1 (19:15) - 6f (8 run)
  3. R2 (19:43) - 6f (8 run)
  4. R3 (20:11) - 1m (7 run)
  5. R4 (20:41) - 6f (6 run)
  6. R5 (21:11) - 1m 110y (7 run)
  7. R6 (21:41) - 5f (8 run)
  8. R7 (22:11) - 6f (8 run)
  9. R8 (22:41) - 1m 110y (9 run)
Belmont Park (USA)
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  2. R1 (18:20) - 1m 110y (6 ran)
  3. R2 (18:51) - 1m 110y (7 run)
  4. R3 (19:22) - 6f (5 run)
  5. R4 (19:53) - 7f (11 run)
  6. R5 (20:24) - 1m 110y (10 run)
  7. R6 (20:55) - 7f (7 run)
  8. R7 (21:26) - 1m 110y (7 run)
  9. R8 (21:57) - 6f (8 run)
  10. R9 (22:28) - 7f (12 run)
Emerald Downs (USA)
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  2. R1 (22:15) - 5f 110y (6 run)
  3. R2 (22:47) - 6f (6 run)
  4. R3 (23:21) - 6f (6 run)
  5. R4 (23:55) - 6f (6 run)
  6. R5 (00:30) - 5f 110y (6 run)
  7. R6 (00:56) - 1m (7 run)
  8. R7 (01:22) - 6f (6 run)
  9. R8 (01:48) - 5f 110y (5 run)
  10. R9 (02:14) - 5f (6 run)
Hastings Racecourse (USA)
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. R1 (21:50) - 6f (6 run)
  3. R2 (22:20) - 6f (6 run)
  4. R3 (22:50) - 6f (10 run)
  5. R4 (23:20) - 6f 110y (6 run)
  6. R5 (23:50) - 6f (9 run)
  7. R6 (00:20) - 6f 110y (8 run)
  8. R7 (00:50) - 6f 110y (9 run)
  9. R8 (01:20) - 6f (10 run)
Mountaineer Park (USA)
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. R1 (00:00) - 5f (10 run)
  3. R2 (00:22) - 5f (10 run)
  4. R3 (00:44) - 7f (10 run)
  5. R4 (01:06) - 6f (7 run)
  6. R5 (01:28) - 5f 110y (8 run)
  7. R6 (01:50) - 6f (7 run)
  8. R7 (02:12) - 1m (8 run)
  9. R8 (02:34) - 5f 110y (6 run)
  10. R9 (02:56) - 6f (8 run)
Philadelphia Park (USA)
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. R1 (17:55) - 6f (4 ran)
  3. R2 (18:22) - 6f 110y (8 ran)
  4. R3 (18:49) - 5f 110y (12 run)
  5. R4 (19:16) - 6f 110y (10 run)
  6. R5 (19:43) - 1m 70y (6 run)
  7. R6 (20:10) - 6f (10 run)
  8. R7 (20:37) - 6f 110y (8 run)
  9. R8 (21:04) - 6f (9 run)
  10. R9 (21:31) - 1m 70y (11 run)
Prairie Meadows (USA)
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  2. R1 (19:00) - 1m 70y (7 run)
  3. R2 (19:27) - 1m 70y (6 run)
  4. R3 (19:54) - 6f (7 run)
  5. R4 (20:21) - 5f (8 run)
  6. R5 (20:48) - 6f (6 run)
  7. R6 (21:15) - 6f (9 run)
  8. R7 (21:42) - 6f (8 run)
  9. R8 (22:07) - 6f (6 run)
  10. R9 (22:32) - 6f (11 run)
Remington Park (USA)
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. R1 (19:30) - 1f 30y (10 run)
  3. R2 (19:56) - 1f 30y (10 run)
  4. R3 (20:22) - 1f 80y (10 run)
  5. R4 (20:48) - 1f 30y (10 run)
  6. R5 (21:14) - 1f 30y (10 run)
  7. R6 (21:40) - 1f 110y (10 run)
  8. R7 (22:06) - 1f 110y (10 run)
  9. R8 (22:32) - 1f 110y (10 run)
  10. R9 (22:58) - 1f 110y (10 run)
  11. R10 (23:24) - 1f 130y (10 run)
Tampa Bay Downs (USA)
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  2. R1 (17:40) - 1m 39y (5 ran)
  3. R2 (18:10) - 6f (5 ran)
  4. R3 (18:41) - 1m 110y (7 ran)
  5. R4 (19:12) - 1m 39y (9 run)
  6. R5 (19:43) - 1m 110y (9 run)
  7. R6 (20:14) - 1m 39y (10 run)
  8. R7 (20:45) - 1m (9 run)
  9. R8 (21:18) - 7f (11 run)
  10. R9 (21:51) - 1m (10 run)
  11. R10 (22:23) - 1m 110y (11 run)
Woodbine (USA)
  1. ALL - View all races at this meeting
  2. R1 (18:00) - 5f (5 ran)
  3. R2 (18:29) - 1m 110y (6 ran)
  4. R3 (19:00) - 7f (7 run)
  5. R4 (19:31) - 5f (13 run)
  6. R5 (20:05) - 5f (7 run)
  7. R6 (20:37) - 6f 110y (7 run)
  8. R7 (21:09) - 5f (10 run)
  9. R8 (21:41) - 7f (8 run)
  10. R9 (22:13) - 5f (5 run)
  11. R10 (22:45) - 5f (7 run)

Paul Quigley's US Racing Preview
02 May 2015

It's the 141st Kentucky Derby on Saturday. It is thought by many to be one of the deepest for some years now. Bob Baffert has two outstanding candidates in Dortmund and American Pharoah who have been excelling in California and Arkansas. Todd Pletcher is now three handed with the scratching of Stanford. His contenders Carpe Diem and Materiality have won the key trials in Florida and Kentucky. They will be joined by Godolphin's Frosted who won The Wood in New York and UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij who adds interest and depth to the event.

The Kentucky Derby is the final of 10 graded stakes previewed below. Seven come from a fabulous card in Kentucky that includes Breeders' Cup Classic winner Bayern. In addition, there are a trio from Belmont. One of the stakes from The Big Apple sees the last two Belmont Stakes winners Palace Malice and Tonalist pitched against each other.

PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM  Belmont Park and Churchill Downs
Saturday 2 May 2015


Churchill Downs Race 5 (5.38pm)
The Pat Day (Grade 3) - 3 year olds - 1 Mile - Dirt

Despite him being a dual winner of The Breeders' Cup Sprint, many of Midnight Lute's progeny seem to excel at a mile or more. That may be the case with Gimme Da Lute (2) who looked a future star when winning a sprint stake at Santa Anita a month ago. Although he added ground should suit, what may not is if he has pace partners. Recent Oaklawn stakes runner up Hillbilly Royalty (4) may be one speed rival. Another is likely to be Todd Pletcher's unbeaten Competitive Edge (6). The Grade 1 Hopeful winner last September made short work of three rivals on his return.

If the speed duel is destructive, Lord Nelson (5) may get a nice trip. He was second recently in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct but resented the kick back and the inside post. That was his first loss in four attempts over one turn.

If the early fractions are really contested, Olly Stevens Peace And War (8) may be a late player. He was the beneficiary of a similar tear up when winning a Grade 1 at Keeneland last October.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Lord Nelson (5)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Gimme Da Lute (2) and Lord Nelson (5)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Lord Nelson (5) and Competitive Edge (6)

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
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Churchill Downs Race 6 (6.19pm)
The American Turf (Grade 2) - 3 year olds - 1 1/16 Miles - Turf

This stake plots to be run at decent fractions with the inside drawn quartet all likely to be forwardly ridden. Conquest Typhoon (8) doesn't need a speed duel up front to win this but it certainly helps. He's ran two fine races in graded stakes on synthetics this year but has two victories on turf as a juvenile. At Del Mar in November, he closed to win a Grade 3. Jockey Mike Smith knows him well.

Conquest Typhoon did finish behind Luck Of The Kitten (1) in The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Wes Ward's colt has claims but may get no breathers in a pace battle with Wireless Future (2), Granny's Kitten (3) and Royal Son (4). The former wired a stakes field at Turfway in February. He didn't look anywhere near as effective from stalk mode when behind Conquest Typhoon a month later.

A Lot (6) and Nun The Less (7) are improvers who may benefit from patient rides. Firespike (9) was only a neck behind Conquest Typhoon at Turfway running by far a career best.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Conquest Typhoon (8)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Luck Of The Kitten (1) and Conquest Typhoon (8)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): A Lot (6) and Conquest Typhoon (8)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Nun The Less (7) and Conquest Typhoon (8)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Conquest Typhoon (8) and Firespike (9)

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
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Belmont Park Race 4 (6.44pm)
The Sheepshead Bay (Grade 2) - Fillies and Mares - 4 year olds and upwards - 1 3/8 Miles - Turf

Riposte (1) took this race last year and another Grade 2 before having her season curtailed from June. The Juddmonte trained mare reappeared in a Gulfstream Grade 3 in February and finished second. In her only start since, she was a disappointing fifth in another Florida stake. She did seem to over-race resenting the waiting tactics and was in tight.

The winner of Riposte's last race was Beauty Parlor (4). The former French trained filly was making a winning US debut and there seemed no fluke in her victory. She had been racing in The Provinces and not at the big Paris tracks. The four year old was progressive and looked like she was a Stateside stakes filly in the making.

Rosalind (5) is a Grade 1 winner on Polytrack. Her form isn't quite as good on turf.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Beauty Parlor (4)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Riposte (1) and Beauty Parlor (4)

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
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Churchill Downs Race 7 (7.08pm)
The Humana Distaff (Grade 1) - Fillies and Mares - 4 year olds and upwards - 7 Furlongs - Dirt

Reigning Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Champion Judy The Beauty (8) is the gal to beat here. Her victory at Santa Anita in November was the culmination of an almost perfect season. Interestingly, the only time she lost in 2014 was in this race. She has a big run here to her name so The Churchill track is not an issue. She also won on her return last year so lack of a race may not beat her. The fact is she will be a skinny price and isn't miles clear of the best of the rest.

The comebacking Sweet Reason (1) is one of them. She draws the rail again just as she did when not running to form behind Judy The Beauty at Santa Anita. Last summer she won back to back Grade 1's at Belmont and Saratoga. In the first, she outstayed Sweet Whiskey (7). Todd Pletcher's filly has had a prep this year. Just as importantly, she looks lone speed here. Although she's likely to get uan down, maybe one in six or seven times she hangs on. If her price gives the odds for a gamble, she looks worth risking.

Pletcher also runs Dame Dorothy (3). She is a lightly raced and progressive four year old. In March, she was a well held runner up in a Grade 1 over nine furlongs. Prior to that, she ran a career best when winning over today's distance.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Sweet Whiskey (7)

EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

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Belmont Park Race 6 (7.52pm)
The Westchester (Grade 3 - 4 year olds and upwards - 1 Mile - Dirt

This Grade 3 sees the return to the races of the last two Belmont Stakes winners. 2013 winner Palace Malice (4) proved himself much better than a 12 furlong plodder. He was successful in this race a year later before winning The Grade 1 Met Mile in June. He was retired after a loss in September but has been back in training for some time. He's proven fresh and Todd Pletcher had him working forwardly in Florida before shipping up here.

Tonalist (1) also had success over a shorter distance following his Belmont victory He won the 10 furlong Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last September. Like his market rival, he excels on this race track. He's reported to be very forward by his trainer Christophe Clement. The question with him is this one turn mile and whether it's an insufficient test of stamina.

As the front two in the betting are making their seasonal reappearances, the race fit Confrontation (4) and Juba (2) may be worth a look at prices. The former is another with a fine record at Belmont. Juba gets a severe class test for his hat-trick bid but may be on a soft lead.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Palace Malice (4)

EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
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Churchill Downs Race 8 (7.59pm)
The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Grade 2) - Fillies and Mares - 4 year olds and upwards - 1 Mile - Turf

Most of the contenders here come out of the same Grade 2 run at Gulfstream in March. Lady Lara (4) closed to win by a neck from Sandiva (8) who was bumped at the start. The returning Coffee Clique (5) was just over a length back in third with Kitty Wine (12) fifth. The first two are ex UK trained fillies who are progressing nicely Stateside. The winner and Coffee Clique were having their first runs of 2015. In the latter's case, she'd been away since a Belmont Grade 1 victory last June. She looked really progressive last year and may be worth siding with second time back. She may sit closest to likely pacesetter Maid On A Mission (10) in what may be a steadily run affair.

Of the rest, the lightly raced Tepin (3) comes off a personal best when winning an allowance event at Gulfstream. Just as interesting is the former John Gosden trained Water Hole (11). She won a handicap and was placed in a Grade 3 mid-summer before losing her way a little. Her new trainer Chad Brown could have easily found a softer US introduction. If he thinks she's worth her place in this line up, that's probably good enough for price players.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Coffee Clique (5)

EXOTIC BETS
Combination Exacta (6 bets): Lady Lara (4), Coffee Clique (5) and Water Hole (11)

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
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Churchill Downs Race 9 (8.43pm)
The Churchill Downs (Grade 2) - 4 year olds and upwards - 7 Furlongs - Dirt

It would be very unfair to call current Breeders' Cup Classic Winner Bayern (2) a fraud. It is true that he got an easy lead at Santa Anita just as he did when winning The Grade 1 Haskell in July. He is the very essence of dirt racing in America. Put him in the driving seat going his fractions and he's almost impossible to catch. If he's not on the lead or has company like in The Preakness and Travers and he strikes out in style. This is his seasonal reappearance and Bob Baffert has shortened him up to seven furlongs. He is 2 from 2 at the distance and did win over a one turn mile here last April. The worry is he'll have plenty of company if Martin Garcia wants the front or he'll have to show a new dimension to his game by being rated.

Brewing (3) and Gentlemen's Bet (6) have fine speed. That may be a problem for Private Zone (4). Last year's Grade 1 Vosburgh and Cigar Mile winner almost won on his 2015 debut at Gulfstream. He reverts to regular rider Martin Pedroza for his second start back. Although most of his success has come on the engine, he has got a stalking gear in him.

With potentially a ton of early speed signed on, there is a possibility a stalker/closer could get there late. The evergreen Pants On Fire (5) looked as good as ever on his return. He coped well with the cut back to seven furlongs and may be a late player.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Private Zone (4)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Private Zone (4) and Pants On Fire (5)

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
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Churchill Downs Race 10 (9.44pm)
The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Grade 1 - 4 year olds and upwards - 1 ¼ Miles - Turf

This is the 2015 reappearance for Seek Again (9). He beat Grand Arch (12) and Jack Milton (7) in a Grade 2 at Saratoga before trying the best one mile turf events in America. In The Breeders' Cup and The Shadwell Turf Mile he didn't help his chances by being slowly away. He gave Wise Dan a real fright in this race last year when coming off a similar lay off.

It is quite rare for an older filly or mare to take on the boys in America. That's what Stephanie's Kitten (8) is doing here. The consistent six year old won a Grade 1 at Belmont in September and then ran second in The Filly and Mare Turf at The Breeders' Cup. She defied a lay off to beat a deep field at Tampa in March. She has a strong late kick and doesn't have to have a fast pace to chase down.

Jack Milton (7) won a Grade 1 in the soft at Keeneland last month. Finnegans Wake (5) brings over some sharp form from California. Chocolate Ride (10) might try to steal this. He's gone wire to wire in back to back stakes at The Fair Grounds. In the latter, he narrowly held on from Slumber (11) with Coalport (6) a below form fifth. Grade 2 winner and Grade 1 runner up Grand Arch (12) beat Sky Captain (2) narrowly on his reappearance.

There is a strong possibility that the 30/1 morning line of Umgiyo (3) is way bigger than he'll be in the real market. Mike de Kock's runner ran some fine races at The Dubai Carnival until a below par effort when slowly away in The Grade 1 Dubai Turf. Interesting this five year old and his Kentucky Derby runner Mubtaahij race without lasix. He's definitely a price chance worth considering.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Stephanie's Kitten (8)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Stephanie's Kitten (8) and Seek Again (9)

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
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Belmont Park Race 10 (10.35pm)
The Fort Marcy (Grade 3) - 4 year olds and upwards - 1 1/8 Miles - Turf

Chad Brown runs entrymates Hyper (1) and Big Blue Kitten (1A) for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey. The former hasn't raced since November 2013. He did win a Grade 2 that year and was second in The Grade 1 Canadian International. Barn mate Big Blue Kitten did a similar feat in Canada last year as well as running some fine races in New York and New Jersey. He is proven fresh winning a stake at Saratoga last summer off a longer lay off than this one.

V. E. Day (7) won The 2014 Travers (on dirt) but has an allowance victory on turf to his name. That was before he improced so may have a graded stakes victory on grass in him. He is very unexposed and could have too much class for this field.

Divine Oath (6) and Mr Speaker (5) both have had the benefit of a race in 2015. In the former's case, he's had two starts. He may be capable of improving off decent efforts in defeat at Gulfstream and The Fair Grounds. Mr Speaker shaped like he retains all his ability at Keeneland last month. He won a Grade 1 here last July as a three year old and is very playable today.

The hat-trick seeking Middleburg (2) is dangerous if he gets a soft lead. He may be pressed early on by Howe Great (4).

PAUL'S SELECTION
Blue Kitten (1A)

EXOTIC BETS
Combination Exacta (6 bets): Blue Kitten (1A), Mr Speaker (5) and V. E. Day (7)

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
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Churchill Downs Race 11 (11.34pm)
The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade 1) - 3 year olds - 1 ¼ Miles - Dirt

The Bob Baffert trained pair of Dortmund (8) and American Pharoah (18) look leading contenders. The former has never lost in six career starts culminating in a four length victory in The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He had Bolo (9) back in third that day although that colt pushed him close the time before. Dortmund has been on the lead in all three starts this year. As a juvenile, he showed the ability to rate. That may be important as there's tons of early speed in this year's renewal. He doesn't mind a scrap and shapes like he'll stay this extra furlong. Odds of 4/1 are probably a fair reflection of his chances.

If anything, American Pharoah (18) has been more eye-catching this year. He's destroyed overmatched competition at Oaklawn twice in graded stakes. In The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, he beat Far Right (20) and Mr. Z (17) by eight lengths. He stalked the pace that day but like his barn mate, will be ridden forwardly to at least get a good early position. His brilliance at three is only a continuation of what he showed as a juvenile. He was the best two year old in California if not America but had to miss The Breeders' Cup with a training set back. A super five furlong work out here last Sunday probably means 3/1 is the biggest price you're likely to see on race day.

If there is a superstar in this line up, The Baffert pair and Materiality (3) are the most likely to be it. He's unbeaten in three career races for Todd Pletcher. His latest victory, a length a half battling display over Upstart (19) was a massive improvement. That was in the nine furlong Grade 1 Florida Derby. The runner up is a talented and improving type who gives plenty of credence to that form. Materiality will find the fractions here faster than he is used to and he lacks experience. He's only faced 20 runners total in his career. Interestingly, John Velazquez had the choice of mounts between him and Carpe Diem (2) and has chosen the latter. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner up has won both his preps this year. In Keeneland's Grade 1 Bluegrass, he sauntered around at 2/5 beating Danzig Moon (5) by three lengths with Ocho Ocho Ocho (1) back in third. The knock on him is he lacks a brilliant display but this race is often won in a workmanlike manner.

Frosted (15) was a decent juvenile but promises to be a much better three year old. He looked like he was going to beat Upstart (15) at Gulfstream but faltered late on. A problem was subsequently diagnosed and he an operation on his throat. To say it was a success is an understatement based on his victory in Aqueduct's Grade 1 Wood Memorial in March. He had two lengths to spare over Tencendur (4) who was in turn clear of El Kabeir (7) . He's not as flashy nor as talented as a few of these but he's improving and should be suited by this distance. If the favourites get involved in a pace battle, he may be the one to run passed them late on. He's as big as 16/1 on this side of the pond. That's a very fair price in my opinion.

Firing Line (10) has fine speed but may need a perfect storm of a trip to last home. By contrast, International Star (12) may need a total pace meltdown to get there. He's looked good closing to win stakes at The Fair Grounds. Similar comments apply to old rival War Story (16) .

Mubtaahij (6) is interesting, not just because he brings an international flavour to this event. He was a brilliant winner of The UAE Derby on the dirt at Meydan. Mike de Kock's runner may have beaten a modest lot but he couldn't have done it any better. He's hard to assess compared to the Americans and runs without lasix. He's only about 10/1 over here but may be a lot bigger in America.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Frosted (15)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Dortmund (8) and American Pharoah (18)
Combination Exacta (6 bets): Dortmund (8), Frosted (15) and American Pharoah (18)

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