At The Races

PAUL'S ANALYSIS FOR  Belmont Park
Wednesday 22 May 2013

Belmont Park Race 2 (6.36pm)
The Gygistar - A stake for 3 year olds - 7 Furlongs - Dirt

Declan's Warrior (5) showed improved form to win The Grade 3 Bay Shore at Aqueduct in April. He was aided by having a fast pace to chase down but he did beat some nice 3 year olds in the process. The race flow in this stake isn't likely to be anywhere near as favourable but he does meet on paper a weaker bunch.

Declan's Warrior and Battier (1) were both scratched from the 9 furlong Grade 2 Peter Pan 10 days ago. Maybe both sets of connections considered this trip to be better. This will be Battier's first run for Todd Pletcher who was a private purchase from another barn. He's really improved this year and won a small stake across town on his latest run.

Happy My Way (2) might be the one to catch. The Gulfstream winner needs a turnaround as he flunked in a recent Calder stake. David Cohen on Tenango (3) may try to sit close up early. His latest dozen length allowance victory may have been down to the sloppy going. Taken on face value and he's a live contender.

The consistent Duke Of The City (4) cuts back from route racing. He did break his maiden going one turn.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Declan's Warrior (5)

EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

Belmont Park Race 5 (8.09pm)
Claiming $25,000 - Fillies and Mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 6 Furlongs - Turf

None of these gals look watertight and backers should be very price conscious. Heiressofthecrown (5) is in form finishing 3rd against slightly higher priced claimers this month. That was on dirt but she shaped nicely on the grass at Gulfstream in February. She shouldn't be too far back off the early speed. One of the likely front end brigade is Hold It (7). She faded badly when behind the selection last time.

Tapit To Me (2) is also in form. She ran a close up 2nd over course and distance 3 weeks ago. Guyana Star (10) was only a neck behind in 3rd. Both fillies warrant consideration in a wide open event.

Rodinia (1) lacks a recent race and may be better over a furlong or two more. She does make a meaningful drop in class. Turf debutant Miss Sweet Afleet (4) has had a more recent outing. She had a poor trip at Keeneland last time and still almost won.

City Vice (11) has the form to win this and is in fair nick at present. The trouble is it's over a year since she won her only race and is 1 for 54 lifetime.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Heiressofthecrown (5)

EXOTIC BETS
Combination Exacta (6 bets): Miss Sweet Afleet (4), Heiressofthecrown (5) and Hold It (7)

Belmont Park Race 6 (8.41pm)
Claiming $20,000 (split conditions) - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 Mile - Dirt

Most Happy Fella (7) has been hot property in the claiming box recently. In fact, he's been the subject of a claiming war between David Jacobson and Jamie Ness this year. He runs for the latter here and enters this event in good form. For all his fine efforts, he's not won since October. The drop in class doesn't mean automatic success.

Regal Warrior (8) ran poorly in the slop recently. It's not the first time the 6 year old has thrown in a clunker in the wet. He does have tons of back class and rates a big chance if you ignore his last.

David Jacobson may have lost Most Happy Fella but he still has a contending entry in this line up. Artie Luvsto Party (1) comes off a couple of good runs at Aqueduct. The move to Belmont seems to be in his favour. He's 2 from 4 here and 1 from 19 anywhere else. He's very playable but so too is barn mate Equivocation (1A). He gets a massive trainer and rider change. He was only just behind his new barn mate last time and looks a move up type.

Tycoon Cat (3) has a good local record. Assured Victory (4) may bounce back after a poor run in the mud.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Equivocation (1A)

EXOTIC BETS
Combination Exacta (6 bets): Equivocation (1A), Most Happy Fella (7) and Regal Warrior (8)

Belmont Park Race 7 (9.13pm)
Maiden Special Weight - New York bred 3 year olds and upwards - 1 Mile - Dirt

The lightly raced Jade Run (1) was a fine runner up in a similar spot over course and distance last month. He charged late on chasing down fast fractions and narrowed the gap to less than 2 lengths at the wire. That form looks very decent. The winner had looked a well above average maiden for the level and the 3rd horse has won since. He may be vulnerable in what looks to be an evenly run event here. The chances are he just has too much for this group.

Thnxtomyuncle (4) ran as good as he's ever done when a close up 4th in the same maiden as Jade Run. He too closed late on after being some way behind early on. That's been his trouble in his 7 race career. He's often passed many in the stretch but so far has never passed them all.

The turf bred M Six (3) makes only his 2nd start on dirt. His only previous try was on a wet track. Trainer Todd Pletcher reaches for lasix and blinkers for the first time. It may make a difference and turn his dull form around.

Bernardo (2) is getting better. He was 2nd albeit a well beaten one in a maiden claimer only a week ago. Here He Fitz (5) races with blinkers on. The son of War Chant may be forwardly placed in a race without any speed. Interesting.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Jade Run (1)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Jade Run (1) and Here He Fitz (5)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Jade Run (1) and Thnxtomyuncle (4)

Belmont Park Race 8 (9.45pm)
Starter Optional Claiming - 3 year olds - 1 1/16 Miles - Turf

Pontus (5) has looked a new horse since blinkers were applied in January. He's run a trio of sharp races. He broke his maiden and has run a pair of close 2nds in fair company. Although those runs were on dirt, he's turf bred. There seems no reason to think he won't show at least the same sharp form now getting back on grass.

Unbridled Logic (6) is another in good form on dirt. On pedigree, he may be capable of upping his game on the lawn. He looks a different horse now to the one who ran on turf in December. He has some upside. So too has Saved The Best (7). He beat Exporter (2) by a length in a claimer here this month.

Brickyard Kitten (9) looked good in winning when getting back on turf at Gulfstream in March. He was claimed out of the Mike Maker barn that day. Mixed feelings.

The turf debutant Beeliner (1) has a sibling who was successful on the surface. Much Stronger (12) and Bedouin Now (11) are leading players if the race is rained off the grass.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Pontus (5)

EXOTIC BETS
Combination Exacta (6 bets): Pontus (5), Unbridled Logic (6) and Brickyard Kitten (9)

Belmont Park Race 9 (10.17pm)
Claiming $15,000 (split conditions) - Fillies and Mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 Mile - Dirt

Dahteste (4) faded late on when trying higher priced claimers at Pimlico last month. She looks the logical favourite now dropping in class and cutting back in trip. Her 3rd at Laurel and 1st at Penn National prior to that make her the gal to beat. She'll be no bargain on her first try in New York as the locals don't look a great group.

Bozique (6) goes for winless jockey and barn at this meet. That's never a good handicap angle, for backers at least. In fairness, her trainer has turned her around in a couple of runs since he claimed her. She's at least an exacta chance under her 7lb apprentice.

Trainer David Jacobson has an interesting entry. As Junior Alvarado is tabbed to ride both, the likelihood is one of the fillies will be scratched. Pure Afleet (1) was just behind Bozique when favourite last time. Prior to that, she was in front of her barn mate Go Olivia Go (1A).

PAUL'S SELECTION
Pontus (5)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Pure Afleet (1) and Dahteste (4)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Dahteste (4) and Bozique (6)