PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Aqueduct races 3 to 8
Thursday 1 December 2016
Aqueduct Race 3 (6.18pm)
Maiden Claiming $30,000 - 2 year old fillies - 6 Furlongs - Dirt
Haveaniceweekend (6) has had nine starts and her form is only modest. The positives are she showed improved form since joining Bruce Brown and this maiden claimer has come up soft. Her three length runner up on her local debut makes her the standard setter.
A pair of fillies who last raced at Laurel are likely dangers. The class dropping Axe Capital (7) races in a career low spot. In her only start on dirt, she faded in a maiden special weight. Late Night Kiss (5) went close in a slightly cheaper maiden claimer second time out.
Simplylucky (4) finished almost seven lengths behind Haveaniceweekend last time. It was only her second start and a big improvement on her debut.
Aqueduct Race 4 (6.47pm)
Maiden Claiming $40,000 - New York bred 2 year olds - 1 Mile - Dirt
Ethan Hunt (3) is likely to be warm order here. He runs first time for sale for Todd Pletcher who is never afraid of dropping a horse in class in an effort to gain a victory. He's been placed in a pair of stakes and ran well in some decent maidens in half a dozen starts so far. His only poor run was when fading over today's distance but that effort was too bad to be true.
Save The Tigers (7) improved massively second time at the races. He ran third at this claiming level at Belmont in late October. He's stoutly bred on both sides of his pedigree so the step up from six and a half furlongs should suit. His trainer Linda Rice is in red hot form at this meet.
Troubled Lover (1) and Barnacle Bill (2) both run in a maiden claimer for the first time on career start number three. The last named has recently been gelded too. Undercover Agent (5) was a close third on his career debut. It was a slowly run event but his trainer Mike Hushion has a brilliant record with second time starters.
Single Heist (6) may get very brave if he makes the lead on his own.
Ethan Hunt (3)
Aqueduct Race 5 (7.16pm)
Claiming $25,000 - Fillies and Mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 7 Furlongs - Dirt
What to do with My Savannah Belle (9) is key to backers here. The five year old runs first time for sale since being claimed on her career debut in 2014. Since then, she's kept very good company including winning a stake last year. She's winless in five starts this term but has shaped well in stakes and allowance events. With that in mind, the big drop in class off a couple of months lay off is a slight worry. In addition although her jockey Jacqueline Davis is competent, a solitary victory in her last 40 rides can't do her confidence any good.
Those who possibly foolishly want to take My Savannah Belle on have a number of possibilities. Mastic (2) drops in class from the allowance ranks. She won back to back races when last in claiming company in August and September. Doinwhatshelikes (6) was also successful when last running for sale. A fast workout since her comeback is a positive.
Pure Lemon (1) is another who has been tackling better. She retains the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. and she may be all the better for her first run in a couple of months. Likewise Just Got Out (5). She was claimed off a neck defeat on her return. Her new trainer Linda Rice has a fine record with recent acquisitions. Her form is a little bare but she is likely to get pace to chase down.
Just Got Out (5)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Just Got Out (5) and My Savannah Belle (9)
Aqueduct Race 6 (7.45pm)
Maiden Special Weight - 2 year olds - 6 Furlongs - Dirt
There are angles in for all of these maidens. In form trainer David Cannizzo has entered a pair. Both Steamroller (5) and Hardened (3) faded badly on their debuts. The former now races with lasix for the first time. Hardened (3) attended quick fractions and was 'wrapped up' by Manuel Franco once his chance had gone. He could be a different proposition second time out.
Driven By Thunder (6) may have won on his career debut but for being away slowly. Off that runner up try, he is upped in class to a maiden special weight by Todd Pletcher. If this maiden comes up soft, that level of form may be good enough. Similarly Lunaire (1). He faded badly over a mile second time out and now races with lasix as well as cut back in distance.
Small Bear (2) has been gelded since his debut in September. Maybe more interesting are the pair of first time startersBeasley (4) and Zip Van Winkle (7). The former is bred to need further but Zip Van Winkle has a fine series of workouts and the booking of Jose Ortiz is a big hint he's live.
Aqueduct Race 7 (8.14pm)
Claiming $25,000 - 3 year olds and upwards - 6 Furlongs - Dirt
Monster Mash (2) will be the deserving favourite here. He's held his form well despite three trainer changes since he returned in July. He followed up a victory at this level with a close up second in a $32,000 claimer in late October. Off that run, he holds a trio of these. Sir Bond (3) was beaten just over a length. Old rival Metaurus (1) was almost two lengths behind him and Royal Saint (6) further adrift. Sir Bond may be set for his best on his third run back. Royal Saint was hemmed in on the inside. He should do better drawn wider and has the back races to win this.
Wireless Future (4) was a stakes calibre turf three year old who has lost his way. His form has been inconsistent and a bit below that since. He is unexposed in dirt sprints.
Monster Mash (2)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Monster Mash (2) and Sir Bond (3)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Monster Mash (2) and Royal Saint (6)
Aqueduct Race 8 (8.43pm)
Allowance Optional Claiming - New York bred 3 year olds and upwards - 6 ½ Furlongs - Dirt
Being lone speed especially on the dirt is one of the most powerful angles in racing, particularly Stateside. That's what True Bet (4) appears to be here. The problem with this four year old is he's on a long losing run and has been afforded the front to himself a few times in that sequence. Last time out, he set the pace and was reeled in late. He did finish a head in front of John's Island (2) with the comebacking Celtic Chaos (3) a length and a half behind. John's Island is on a long losing run himself. Celtic Chaos may come on for the outing. He can get behind in his races and in a pretty paceless affair, that is likely put him at a tactical disadvantage.
David Jacobson runs a pair here. Steve's Image (1) was claimed off a victory in a $25,000 claimer last time. He needs to improve a little. Saratoga Heater (1A) improved at Saratoga winning back to back races. They were on off tracks and he hasn't raced since late August.
Hurry Up Alan (2B) is in the same ownership as John's Island. He was claimed off a runner up try in a turf route. He is proven on dirt although he's an unknown in sprints.
True Bet (4)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): John's Island (2) and True Bet (4)