Only two stakes events on Saturday but plenty of good action from a trio of venues in the Stateside Preview below. The feature at Belmont is The Wild Applause, a stake on the turf for fillies over a mile. Chad Brown's Rubilinda is likely to be a warm order here. She's only had one race but it was a super introduction. She is a daughter of Frankel. There is a chance like over here, that hype gets more attention than substance when it comes to his sire. His daughter may be much the best. If she wins at even money or shorter, she'll win without me.
Ironically, I have gone with promise rather than form in the feature stake at Monmouth, The Jersey Shore. Fair Grounds stakes winner Proforma is probably the horse to beat but I sided for the twice-raced Space Shuttle. His maiden win was a taking effort and he could be lone speed on a track that favours frontrunners.
PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Belmont Park, Monmouth Park and Gulfstream Park
Saturday 24 June 2017
Monmouth Park Race 8 (9.21pm)
Allowance (entry level) New Jersey bred 3 year olds and upwards - 6 Furlongs - Dirt
The speedy Phone My Posse (10) has run two big races since he returned last month. He ran really well when a nose runner up at this level in the latest. He reversed the form with Lucky Six (5) and Guinness Spice (7) who filled the places when he was fourth on his comeback. All of them have claims here but there are others in here worth a look too.
Follow the Rainbow (9) was off slowly on his three year old debut finishing behind Phone My Posse and co earlier this month. Having placed in a Stakes as a juvenile, he is likely to be competitive if he breaks on terms. He gets the services of Joe Bravo who did ride Chub Scout (3) to victory in a maiden on his comeback. That was a much improved effort, his first start since a trainer change.
Best Choice (4) has shown improved form at Parx twice since being trounced here. If there is a pace meltdown, he may be the one to benefit.
Follow the Rainbow (9)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Chub Scout (3) and Follow the Rainbow (9)
Belmont Park Race 7 (9.46pm)
Allowance (entry level) New York bred 3 year olds and upwards - 1 1/8 Miles - Turf
If rained off the turf, last time maiden winner Broken Engagement (3) looks the one to beat. If run as advertised, another recent graduate Elenzee (1) will be to the head of the market. He went wire to wire over a mile last month. This furlong longer distance may be an issue particularly as he is likely to have pace partners. His barn mate Inheritthewind (6) made steady late headway to run fifth when favourite for a similar event last time. He now runs in blinkers today. Nutzforboltz (8) and Vintage Matters (9) filled the places in that contest. The former has looked much improved since trying turf. Vintage Matters is a staying type who should get decent fractions to chase down.
Voodoo Song (4) and Dynamax Prime (5) look interesting making the dirt to turf move. The first named broke his maiden on the grass and has not raced on it since. Dynamax Prime has been one paced in a series of races at this level on the dirt. His running style should be suited to the turf and connections thought that was his surface in his early career. He is a player no matter what the footing today but has price appeal on the grass.
Dynamax Prime (5)
Monmouth Park Race 9 (9.53pm)
Claiming $16,000 (split conditions) - Fillies and Mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 1/16 Miles - Turf
The conditions of this race normally favour three year olds or lightly raced older horses. Not runners like Justenufflaughter (3), Shades of Grey (7) and Madame Barbarian (9) who have had many chances to win career race number two. Postino's Idol (1) who lacks a start since October and last time maiden breaker Tevere (5) have more upside. But they and the rest seem to be up against it facing Stella Street (4). She has run well in much better company since joining Chad Brown from Ireland. Even her last two efforts in mid-range claimers are better than her rivals. Now plunged in class, she is without question the mare to beat at a skinny price.
Dangerous Woman (8) has a little to find even with the established runners at this level. She is a lightly raced three year old who shaped well when making a rare start on turf earlier this month.
Stella Street (4)
Gulfstream Park Race 8 (10.02pm)
Claiming $30,000 (split conditions) - Fillies and Mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 Mile - Turf
Sistine Sista (2) is probably the gal to beat here. She's ran a close third getting back on the turf last month. Her record shows a solitary career victory and many near misses in 14 career races. However, she only broke her maiden in March so it's not like she's forgotten how to win.
Devilish Romance (6) finished just behind Sistine Sista the last time she raced on turf. She has a chance at a likely fair price. Hotty Toddy (5) will be shorter. She's had excuses for not running to her best in two starts since she returned.
The twice raced Natrona Girl (4) is likely big improver in here. Peart (10) has claims but has a tricky draw.
Sistine Sista (2)
Belmont Park Race 8 (10.18pm)
The Wild Applause - A stake for 3 year old fillies - 1 Mile - Turf
Despite her lack of experience, the once raced Rubilinda (6) is likely to be all the rage here. She gave a field of maidens a big start and a three length beating on debut over six furlongs last month. To the eye, she was visually impressive. That was backed up by the clock. She ran 1-08 and change, much faster than an allowance winner on the same card. She's already run a speed figure similar to the best of these and is likely to improve with experience and getting more ground to race over.
Lull (2) has a stakes penalty to carry so giving 6lbs to Rubilinda may be very difficult task. Value seekers have some powerful angles in their favour. She comes off a career best when a nose runner up in a stake to a decent filly. That was over seven furlongs. She plots to be on the lead on her own over a mile. She is taken to wire this field.
Bellavais (3) closed strongly last time and finished only half a length behind Lull. She has to be reckoned with. And the remaining trio are not out of this also. Rum Go (1) ran a career best first time for Brad Cox in May. She was a clear cut winner of an allowance event at Indiana. Talaaqy (5) did likewise locally but only by a neck. She did well to get there, hung very wide. Super Marina (4) has run creditably in a trio of stakes since winning in February.
Monmouth Park Race 10 (10.25pm)
The Jersey Shore - A stake for 3 year olds - 6 Furlongs - Dirt
Proforma (4) is one of a trio of previous stakes winners in here that are all have 7lb penalties to carry. He had some time away after a three length score at The Fair Grounds in December. His comeback in a deep event on The Preakness Day undercard wasn't too bad considering he broke awkwardly. His form on dirt is stronger than Gulfstream turf stakes winner Derek's Smile (1). In fairness, he did win on debut on his only other completed start on dirt. Both he and barn mate Cohen's Kat (1A) have been working well lately. He won back to back starts over today's distance before fading late on in a stake over a mile.
Philadelphia based John Servis has two entered. Alex Again (6) has been runner up in two events over a mile since breaking his maiden in a sprint. Even Thunder (5) won a stake as a juvenile. He ran second in back to back stakes earlier this year before a poor run, finishing well behind Proforma at Pimlico.
Based on speed figures, last time out Parx allowance winner Storming My Way (2) has at least place claims here. Maybe more interesting is the twice raced Space Shuttle (3). He wired maidens by open lengths on his first start for Derek Ryan nearly three weeks ago. A nice workout since suggests that comeback effort has bottomed him out. He looks to be the dominant speed of this event. On a track like Monmouth, that's a massive positive.
Storming My Way (2)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Storming My Way (2) and Proforma (4)
Gulfstream Park Race 9 (10.34pm)
Claiming $10,000 (split conditions) - 3 year olds and upwards - 5 Furlongs - Turf
Morning line favourite Right Up My Alley (7) was a clear cut winner in the slop earlier this month. His form on turf is even better, running a big speed figure for the level the time before. The horse he beat last time Ultimate Dude (2) has stronger form on grass too. He and another out of that race Whooo Here We Go (4) are likely to improve with the surface switch.
For a five furlong sprint, there is little early speed in here. That makes Francesco Fishing (5) interesting. He survived a pace duel to break his maiden second time out and first time on turf. The one worry is a big one. He now runs for a trainer who is winless in 2017.
Gods Greatness (10) gained a well overdue maiden win last time. Policy Portfolio (9) made an encouraging return earlier this month. Rosebud's High (6) may outrun his odds making a rare start in a turf sprint.
Right Up My Alley (7)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Francesco Fishing (5) and Right Up My Alley (7)
Belmont Park Race 9 (10.50pm)
Allowance optional Claiming - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 ¼ Miles - Turf
This is a stakes quality allowance contest and a wide open one to boot. It's never a bad idea in a turf event to start off with any Chad Brown's entrants. Converge (8) defied a nine month absence to beat a field of New York breds last month. He runs as if he'll stay this longer distance. Barn mate Call Provision (7) has won over further. He's not been out since winning back to back allowance events at Aqueduct in November. His workouts are more steady than spectacular but his trainer can get them fit without drilling them.
Many of these ran in an event at this level over a mile and a half last month. Altar Boy (5) and Munjaz (4) filled the places. Soluble (13) and Montclair (1) weren't beaten far. Tashreeh (2) faded late on after setting the pace. He is an interesting longshot cutting back two furlongs.
The class dropping Eirigh (9) and Gio's Calling (12) have claims in a race with many chances.
Call Provision (7)
Gulfstream Park Race 10 (11.06pm)
Allowance optional Claiming - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 1/16 Miles - Turf
Former stakes runner Hammers Terror (2) has found his level at the age of eight. He beat Global Entry (8) by half a length with Terry's Charm (5) not far away in fourth last time. His trainer Mike Maker gives him every chance to win again by keeping him at the same level and once more in for a claim. It is how the sharp operators win at a healthy rate. The same applies to Little Baltar (6). He beat Hammers Terror by a nose in May. New connections have sat out their time 'in jail' with him and have opted to run him below the price they claimed him at.
Regal Kitten (3) is a former barn mate of Little Baltar. He's on a five timer today. This is his toughest task to date but based on his speed figures, he's not out of this.
Hammers Terror (2)