At The Races

BLIND LUCK

Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer | Set to run in the Juvenile Fillies

A Calder maiden claimer in June isn’t the most obvious place to look for eventual favourite for the Juvenile Fillies. However, this girl started her career from the barn of James Hatchett with a $40,000 price tag. No one saw her as a bargain and there may have been a few regretting not putting in a ticket, as she bounded home by 13¼ lengths, not a bad winning distance over a full field at four and half furlongs! That qualified her for one of those (usually) weak starter allowances for one time winners. Making her first start for Jerry Hollendorfer, she again enjoyed a facile success going five and half furlongs at Del Mar, but even that score didn’t make too many waves. However, on her first start in stakes ranks, she put up a cracking effort up in Grade 1 company in the seven furlongs Darley Debutante, closing well to take second place behind Mi Sueno, who was subsequently injured in a workout session, which brought her season to a close. However, Blind Luck’s last race put her right at the top of the class. Tackling the Grade 1 Oak Leaf Stakes, over the same course and distance as the Juvenile Fillies, she proved well suited to the two-turn trip, showing the kind of physicality that will come in useful on the big day. This superbly named filly, by the one-eyed Pollard’s Vision, out of Lucky One, should certainly give her supporters a run for their money.

CARELESS JEWEL

Trained by Josie Carroll | Set to run in the Ladies' Classic

Josie Carroll has set her charge a real test for her first go against her elders in stakes company, assuming Zenyatta stays with her own gender, rather than tackling the boys in the Classic. Careless Jewel has been brought along steadily this year winning five of her six starts. She finished third on debut, when she failed to settle and got steadied going six furlongs on the Polytrack at Woodbine in April. However, she was soon in the winner’s circle, breaking her maiden over the same trip in the following month and adding an entry level allowance, going eight and half furlongs in June. She accomplished each of those victories with the minimum of fuss but, even allowing for that, an entry in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks appeared a bold move, particularly as it marked her debut on conventional dirt. Sent off at over 10-1 she made every pole a winning one, romping home by 7¼ lengths off strong fractions over a decent looking group. At the time some thought it may have been a fluke but she despatched that theory when taking the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in August. At the wire she had a cushion of 11 lengths over her nearest rival, which was all the more impressive because she got steadied sharply at the first turn of the ten furlongs trip. At the beginning of October she was shipped to Philadelphia Park to run in the Grade 2 Fitz Dixon Cotillion and again she enjoyed a straightforward victory. Rider Bob Landry had her in the five path all the way round and as she won unchallenged by 3½ lengths. Ashado prepped at Philly before she won the equivalent race at Lone Star Park in 2004 and, with her undoubted class and synthetic track form, Careless Jewel is an interesting contender at least.

CONNIE AND MICHAEL

Trained by Ken McPeek | Set to run in the Juvenile Fillies (has 2nd preference in the Juvenile Fillies Turf)

Connie And Michael has already been dismissed by some Californian commentators because her maiden breaker, on her only start so far, came in an all the way manner. The theory propounded being that such brilliant speed nearly always equates to certain defeat on the Pro-Ride. For me, the main flaw with that analysis is that we have only one race on which to make that judgement; there is no evidence that this lass would not be equally adept if asked to adopt a stalking style. As is often the case, even on the front end, it all depends on the pace of the race. What is not in doubt is that she has talent, but that was hardly a secret when she went to the seven furlongs start at Keeneland just nineteen days before her big day. Sent off as 5-2 favourite she came home 7¾ lengths clear of a full field of juveniles, getting the best Beyer speed figure in the race, and the only one that matches the par for the Juvenile Fillies — her first preference.

D'FUNNYBONE

Trained by Richard Dutrow | Set to run in the Juvenile

D’Funnybone joined Richard Dutrow after making a couple of starts from the barn of Joseph Calascibetta at Calder. He broke his maiden first time up, by 7¼ lengths in special weight company, going four and half furlongs on the slop. His next assignment was a listed stakes event over six furlongs, again at Calder, in July and he put up a decent effort to take second place, getting caught close to the wire having taken the lead late. He was shipped to New York after that run and made his first start in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special in August. Sent off as third choice in the betting, he blew away the opposition in a 10½ lengths romp, at the end of the six and half furlong trip. It was certainly a visually impressive performance but I wondered whether he had beaten much and was not convinced of the merit of the effort. So, many were quite happy to oppose him at the 4-9 he was sent to post in the Grade 2 Futurity, going seven furlongs at Belmont. Not for the first time, we were completely wrong, as he put up another exciting effort, finishing 4¾ lengths clear of his nearest pursuer, who was a further eight lengths ahead of the rest. He was originally expected to tackle the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont but Dutrow left that to his barn companion Homeboykris, who is reportedly not going to Santa Anita, which is a pity, but D’Funnybone, certainly looks to be classy enough. The big question is the surface. On dirt, I’d be all over this one, on Pro Ride, I’m hesitant.

FATAL BULLET

Trained by Reade Baker | Set to run in the Sprint

Fatal Bullet put up a cracking performance in last year’s sprint, doing everything that a sprinter isn’t supposed to do on the Pro Ride, and very nearly getting the job done. Blasting through half a mile in 43.85 seconds, he didn’t quite have enough left to hold off the late charge of Midnight Lute, as that lad hurtled to his follow up victory. However, he comfortably held the rest of that field. He was given a long time to get over his exertions and returned after a lay off of just shy of nine months in a listed contest, going six and half furlongs on the Polytrack at his home base of Woodbine. He showed he still retained his ability on that occasion, winning as a short priced favourite, while never having to be asked for an effort but earning his best Beyer speed figure yet. After that, he tried conventional dirt, at Saratoga in the Grade 2 Alfred Vanderbilt Stakes in August, his first run on that surface since he ran a clunker in the Woody Stephens on Belmont Stakes Day last year. Again, he proved ineffective on the strip and trailed the tails, 17¾ lengths behind Fabulous Strike, who will not be travelling to California. However, he is a totally different proposition on synthetic surfaces, and he made it nine wins from eleven starts when he collected the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland last time out, holding off a closing Captain Candyman Can by a diminishing ½ a length. Fatal Bullet is likely to be trying to drive the engine again and any runner that gets past him will need guts and class in equal measure.

FOREVER TOGETHER

Trained by Jonathan Sheppard | Set to run in the Filly & Mare Turf

Question: Who is the only US bred distaffer to win the Filly & Mare Turf?
Answer: Forever Together.
Last season she went to Santa Anita after a defeat in the Just A Game G1 Stakes, a victory in the Diana (Saratoga), defeat in the Canadian (Woodbine) and a win in the First Lady (Keeneland). This year she took in the same races. She was outsprinted by Diamondrella in the first of them, nipped Caribbean Sunset and Rutherienne at the wire in the Diana, before getting outnodded by Princess Haya in Canada. She then headed to Kentucky trying to repeat her victory of last year. Prior to the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes, it appeared that her defeat at Woodbine owed as much to her jockey’s apparent overconfidence in his mount’s ability to run a blazing final quarter, than the quality of the opposition. The soft turf may not have been in her favour in Kentucky but, again, she was beaten by Diamondrella, who had a three quarters of a length margin over Tizaqueena in second, with a similar distance back to Forever Together. She may get tougher competition from the local group this year and I am sure the contestants from the European side of the ocean will be much stronger than in 2008.

GAYEGO

Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor | Set to run in the Sprint

The Godolphin operation has had a rewarding time of it so far in 2009 particularly on the American side of the pond, and it could get a whole lot better in the next few weeks. This son of Gilded Time was one of the early contributors when putting Big City Man is his place over the straight six furlongs in the Group 3 Mahab Al Shamaal at Nad Al Sheba at the beginning of March. That race was a prep for both of them for their main targets on the Dubai World Cup card. The ill-fated Big City Man paid a huge compliment to that form with a storming score in the Group 1 Golden Shaheen on World Cup night, while this lad was unable to get past Two Step Salsa in the Godolphin Mile, taking second place, 2¾ lengths adrift. He was rested after that effort and returned to competitive action in an allowance event, sprinting at Saratoga in August. He checked and bobbled at the gate there but put up a very pleasing effort to close, getting home for a length success. After another eight weeks away, he returned in the Group 1 Ancient Title Stakes, over the Sprint course and distance. The front enders went off at a strong pace, but Garrett Gomez was content to keep his mount at the back of the field, before making his move off the final turn, closing strongly as the pacemakers ran out of gas. At the wire he got home for a comfortable 1¼ lengths victory, with barely a flick from the persuader. The pace was solid but should be even stronger on the big day, and that can only be in his favour.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY

Trained by Bob Baffert | Set to run in the Juvenile

Bob Baffert is looking for back to back winners in the Juvenile, following his success with Midshipman last year. Lookin at Lucky, a Smart Strike colt, has won all his four starts so far, all in Southern California and, therefore, all on synthetic surfaces. He broke his maiden going six furlongs at Hollywood Park in July, and followed that with a pair of graded stakes successes at Del Mar. In August he picked up the Grade 2 Best Pal over half a furlong further and the following month he added the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs. He was chased home by Make Music For Me in both those races, three quarters of a length back on the first occasion but a length behind last time. That rival hardly advertised the quality of the form when beaten 4¾ lengths fourth behind Noble’s Promise, in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland earlier in October. However, Lookin At Lucky went on to take the main prep race in California, when annexing the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes over the same course and distance as the Juvenile. He heads the ante-post market in Britain at around 2-1 but be warned; so far, his exploits have not impressed the speed figure boys.

MIDSHIPMAN

Trained by Saeed bin Suroor | Set to run in the Dirt Mile

As mentioned above, Godolphin's stateside operation has had a stellar year so far in 2009 and they could be loaded in this division with Girolamo, Pyro and Regal Ransom also under consideration for the ‘Boys in Blue’. However, this is the horse that excited me the most. He won three of his four juvenile runs last year, culminating in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita over eight and a half furlongs. He was just about the only front end winner last year, but that was most likely due to the relatively gentle early pace; the first half mile was run in a time was over a second slower than the juvenile fillies went. However, he did show commendable courage to dig in late to hold off Square Eddie. That was the last seen of him until he reappeared in a third level allowance at Saratoga in August. He wasn’t particularly well away there but was soon stalking a hot pace, before taking over and drawing off in the final furlong for to win by 3¼ lengths, despite drifting in the lane. He faces a real test if he lines up for this event, but he clearly has the class, and we know he handles the surface and that gives him an edge on many who will turn up.

SUMMER BIRD

Trained by Tim Ice | Set to run in the Classic (has 2nd preference in the Turf)

There would be no doubt that this lad would be a major contender for the Classic if it was at Belmont. Unfortunately it isn’t, and it was reported that he was switched from the barn of John Shirreffs to Tim Ice after he had reportedly failed to handle the synthetic surfaces in training. One thing that we do know is that the ten furlongs trip will hold no terrors. He first showed his liking for a distance of ground when winning the Belmont Stakes, where he ran down Dunkirk and Mine That Bird in the lane. At the time it looked likely that he was the best of a pretty average crop of three-year-olds colts and, when he was beaten by six lengths by Rachel Alexandra in the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth Park in August, another piece of evidence was added to the case file. However, I have revised my view recently as this lad has added the Grade 1 Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup to his CV. The latter event was the first time he had faced older runners and he put up his best effort yet. Tim Ice has taken him to Santa Anita and will be working him on the Pro Ride and, if his new handler decides to allow his charge to take his chance, I think we should take the hint and put him in the exotics at least.

ZENSATIONAL

Trained by Bob Baffert | Set to run in the Sprint

Oh dear what do we do with this one? Bob Baffert has compared him favourably with all his superstars of the past and this three-year-old looks guaranteed to get hammered in the pools. However, I am sure he could be one of THE underlays of the meeting. Not that his 2009 campaign hasn’t been impressive; he has won five of his six starts, picking up a trio of graded stakes events on his last three starts. He started his trio of wins in Grade 1 company by taking the Triple Bend over seven furlongs on the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park in July. The next month came the first of two wins on the Polytrack at Del Mar. Cutting back in trip to six furlongs in the Bing Crosby G1, the outcome was the same and, at the beginning of September, he added the Pat O’Brien Stakes over seven furlongs. In each of those three runs he wasn’t headed at any call, but he wasn’t required to blaze the quick early fractions that are likely in the Sprint. There isn’t much doubt that he is very talented runner but he will face much tougher opposition on the first Saturday in November and, at the odds currently available in Britain, I’d rather take Fatal Bullet, Gayego and Captain Candyman Can, whose combined odds are more slightly generous that the 3-2 offered on Zensational.

ZENYATTA

Trained by John Shirreffs | Set to run in the Classic (has 2nd preference in the Ladies' Classic)

Ladies Classic or Classic? That is the question. I have read elsewhere that she should go for the Classic because she is a lock to win the race and then, she would be voted horse of the year. To my mind there are two fatal flaws with this argument. First, even if she were to win, I doubt that she will garner the necessary votes to topple Rachel Alexandra. Zenyatta would have won five races, all on the ‘new fangled’ synthetic surfaces in California, and only one against the boys. Rachel Alexandra won eight races at eight different racetracks, all on conventional dirt, winning for fun against her own age group and gender, and beating the lads three times in top grade company, including a useful older group in the Woodward. I’d be astonished if Zenyatta prevailed in the Horse of the Year voting in those circumstances. And secondly, I think it is unlikely she would beat the colts in any case. The group of rivals she has regularly outmuscled in California are way below the class of the males she would meet in the Classic.

Last year she Zenyatta enjoyed a comfortable success over the Godolphin duo of Cocoa Beach and Music Note, who had both prepped at Belmont, making the Ladies' Classic the most productive event for runners arriving with dirt preps. This year, she has raced just four times, but it has been a case of continuing where she left off. In May she beat six overmatched rivals at 1-5 in the Grade 2 Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park; the following month the price was 3-10, the win just as easy in the Grade 1 Vanity at the same track. However, she made her supporters sweat in August when scrambling home at 1-5 in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar. Mike Smith very nearly paid for his supreme confidence is his mounts ability, and his winner’s circle quip, “Did I scare ya’?” may have carried more anxiety than his demeanour suggested. Last time out, she completed the same prep programme as last year, when adding the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret at Santa Anita. Although she hasn’t given us any more information than we already had by beating overmatched rivals in four races this year, let me say right off that I think she is one of the great racemares and I’ll be shouting loud and long if, as I hope, she makes it fourteen from fourteen in the Ladies' Classic.