Paul Quigley's American Racing Preview

    Paul has selections with analysis for Saturday night's Stateside action on April 21 from Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, Keeneland and Santa Anita - Live on At The Races
  • Friday 20 April 2018
  • Tipsters

PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, Keeneland and Santa Anita
Saturday 21 April 2018


There are stakes events from four venues live on Attheraces Stateside on Saturday. There is an intriguing staying event at Keeneland. As a rule turf racing in California is not as strong as in Kentucky and New York. The Jeff Mullins trained Itsinthepost is one glaring exception. The West Coast invader won last year’s Grade 2 Dixiana Elkhorn at Keeneland beating some of the best US staying turf horses around. He’s likely to be favourite to double up as the six year old has looked at least as good in a trio of starts in 2018.

The featured Grade 2 at Santa Anita is named after The 2000 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Kona Gold. Morning line favourite Ransom the Moon could only finish fifth at The Big Show last November but this is a far more winnable opportunity. That said he gives away a recency edge to his rivals and a couple of them look Grade 1 calibre horses themselves.


Aqueduct Race 3 (7.29pm)
The Woodhaven – A stake for 3 year olds – 1 1/16 Miles - Turf

The highlight of a four race juvenile campaign for Archaggelos (2) was a clear cut victory in a Grade 3 at Woodbine last October. That was on Tapeta at Woodbine but he broke his maiden at Delaware on the turf prior to that. The Michael Dickinson trained colt made his three year old debut in a Grade 3 at Turfway last month. He faded out of contention running well below his best. Maybe he needed the outing but the fact that his trainer now runs him in blinkers first time suggests there is more to it than that.

Archaggelos is also entered for a stake at Woodbine on Saturday. The waters don’t become less muddy in his absence. The locally based pair of Nine Route (3) and Fifty (4) have form on dirt. The first named won a stake for New York breds in February. His only try on turf was a poor one but it came on his career debut. Fifty has never raced on grass or over a route distance. He was claimed out of a blow out maiden win and wired a starter allowance field running first time for Linda Rice subsequently.

Sand Dancer (5) broke his maiden at Belmont and ran some nice races in allowance company at Gulfstream subsequently. He’s a one time career winner with a few near misses which is a worry. This on paper is not a strong stake and he may have the right late running style to win this.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Sand Dancer (5)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Gulfstream Park Race 5 (7.37pm)
The Roar – A stake for 3 year olds – 7 Furlongs - Dirt

This event is for three year olds who have never won a stakes event. Some like Millionaire Runner (1) and Hazit (7) have faced stiff tasks in graded events previously. The last named has the better overall form and is trained by Todd Pletcher. He ran no race in a Grade 3 over nine furlongs on Polytrack last time. Prior to that, he ran a decent second on dirt over today’s distance at Tampa. This is his best chance to date to win a stakes event.

The unbeaten King Humor (8) is a tough read. He won by four lengths on debut running a very swift time in the process. Although he was successful next time, he wasn’t that impressive. He won by a length with Tudox Expectations (3) back in third. With a good attacking post, he gets the vote to run more to his first run of his career.

Transistor (4) was a closing runner up against Florida breds last time. He may have been a bit flattered as the pace seem to collapse up front. Aequor (6) was stakes placed either side of New Year. He ran better than his beaten lengths suggested last time.

PAUL'S SELECTION
King Humor (8)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Santa Anita Race 5 (10.00pm)
The Kona Gold (Grade 2) – 3 year olds and upwards – 6 ½ Furlongs - Dirt

Ransom the Moon (5) won this race during a light campaign in 2017. He won a Grade 1 in July and was far from discredited in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The six year old is best on paper here although he’s not raced since Del Mar in November. He’s been working really well for his comeback and did win first time back last April.

Bobby Abu Dhabi (2) may challenge Ransom the Moon for favourtism here. He’s a lightly raced four year old who ran second in a Grade 1 last month. He may be sent for the lead being drawn inside the other runners who have speed. Barn mate Calculator (4) did make all to win a stake in January but is just as capable running from a few lengths off the pace. He’s been running on turf but is a two-time winner on dirt. He ran below his best when behind Ransom the Moon in last year’s renewal.

Ten Blessings (3) ran third in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on career start number five in December 2016. He missed all of the next year and didn’t reappear until last month. He’s ran two nice races since he returned including an allowance victory last time. Based on the speed figures he’s been running, he’s not far off his best and is entitled to go close here.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Ransom the Moon (5)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Keeneland Race 9 (10.30pm)
The Dixiana Elkhorn (Grade 2) – 4 year olds and upwards – 1 ½ Miles - Turf

Itsinthepost (10) beat a decent field of stayers to win this race in 2017. He’s had exactly the same preparation but this time comes into this event on a four timer. He’s narrowly beaten Hayabusa One (12) in back to back Grade 2’s at Santa Anita. The first occasion, the runner up appeared to be unlucky. Not so last time and the winner is better off at the weights here. He has a turn of foot and doesn’t need a fast pace to be effective.

One Go All Go (7) could be pressed early by Dot Matrix (5) but may be loose on the lead. The six year old has looked much improved since being stepped up to long distances. He was only run down late by the useful Saddlers Joy in a Grade 2 at Gulfstream early last month. He again found one too good four weeks later in another. Good yardstick Oscar Nominated (2) finished just behind in the first. He won a Grade 3 the time before. Bullards Alley (9) finished behind them both in recent starts. He’s not running badly but not at the same level when winning The Grade 1 Canadian International by 10 lengths. Maybe he needs soft ground to be at his very best.

As in many turf stakes in America, Chad Brown has a contender. He relies on only Call Provision (3) here. He progressed last year culminating in a narrow loss in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct in November. The late runner has not raced since but his trainer often has his comebackers ready to run big. Brown is winning at over a 50% strike rate at this meet.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Itsinthepost (10)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Aqueduct Race 9 (10.49pm)
The New York Stallion – A state bred stake for 3 year old fillies – 6 ½ Furlongs - Dirt

Pure Silver (4) is the most accomplished of these fillies. She won three times as a juvenile including a Grade 2 at Saratoga. She should have been a cinch in a trio of tries in a state bred stakes after that but lost each time. Maybe a winter with Todd Pletcher’s Florida string will have rejuvenated her. If that is the case, she’ll be tough to beat. Alternatively she may be a typical early maturing two year old who is vulnerable now meeting later developers.

Pure Silver lost by a neck to Aunt Babe (2) in December with Wegetsdamunnys (1) fourth. Since then Aunt Babe has won another stake for New York breds before being one paced in an open stake last month. My Roxy Girl (6) has only a neck to find with her from that stakes win in February. The late runner filled the same position in an allowance event over course and distance last time.

Our Super Nova (7) and Baby Boss (5) are closely matched off a run in an allowance event last Month. The first named franked the form by winning a stake next time. They have upside here. So too does Orchid Party (9). She broke her maiden third time of asking in February looking no more than a modest filly. A month later, she ran an improved race to beat a starter allowance field. Only on Wednesday she reappeared and beat some pretty promising New York bred fillies in an allowance optional claimer. She is the sort of progressive filly who is worth keeping on the right side of.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Orchid Party (9)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Gulfstream Park Race 11 (10.56pm)
The Game Face – A stake for 3 year old fillies – 7 Furlongs - Dirt

Alter Moon (5) broke her maiden second time out over today’s course and distance in January. She’s faced tough tasks in a pair of Grade 2’s subsequently. In the latest, she was used up in a speed duel over an extended mile. Even the run before, she seemed to find a flat mile a tad too far, at least when ridden aggressively. She now races with blinkers off and is cut back in distance. Just as importantly, she drops significantly in class after meeting some of the best of her generation.

My Favorite Gift (4) ran well in a pair of Grade 3’s on turf before being tried again on dirt earlier this month. The result was an allowance victory over a mile. Like Alter Moon, she runs as if the cut back to seven furlongs will be in her favour. She will rightly have her backers.

Luzmimi Princess (6) and Toni Ann's Miracle (10) finished well clear of the third when dead heating in an allowance optional claimer early this month. Starcloud (1) has won back to back allowance events over today’s course and distance. The unbeaten Miss Jak (3) improved second time out to win a starter optional claimer last time. She is one of a few possible improvers in here.

Alliya's Story (8) and American Frolic (9) are interesting closers in a speed laden affair.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Alter Moon (5)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Santa Anita Race 8 (11.30pm)
The American (Grade 3) - 3 year olds and upwards – 1 Mile - Turf

There is plenty of speed signed on here. What a View (2), Sawyer's Hill (6) and Free Rose (7) are pace types and there are others in here that won’t be far off likely quick early splits. The race should be run to suit horses coming off the pace. Blackjackcat (5) is an effective stalker/closer. He came from well back to run third in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile last November. That big effort came after rattling up a four timer in stakes in Southern California. He ran below form on his comeback but has worked well since then.

Colonist (3) faded behind Itsinthepost in a Grade 2 over a mile and a half last time. Prior to that, he’d run some nice race from off the pace over a mile. The four year old is unexposed on turf and may be a fair price given his last run. Kenjisstorm (9) has slightly better form but will be a shorter price. He defied a long absence to beat Free Rose (7) and Fabozzi (1) easily last month. Provided he’s not part of the likely pace duel, he’s a big player here.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Colonist (3)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) Colonist (3) and Blackjackcat (5)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


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