Paul Quigley's American Racing Preview

    Paul has selections with analysis for Saturday night's Stateside action on June 16th from Belmont Park, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Woodbine - live on At The Races.
  • Friday 15 June 2018
  • Tipsters

PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Belmont Park, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Woodbine
Saturday 16 June 2018


Last Saturday’s Stateside racing was terrific. The card at Belmont was choc-full of quality events and top of the bill Justify didn’t disappoint in The Belmont Stakes. He’s obviously a super horse and his trainer Bob Baffert is one of The Greats. The bad news is us racing fans can’t have Belmont Stakes, Breeders’ Cups or multiple Grade 1 cards every weekend. This Saturday is one of the lesser days. That doesn’t mean the sport is mundane or there’s not the possibility of some decent plays. I have previewed eight races from four venues, most of them stakes events. From a timing point of view, all bar one take place after The UK night racing and the final whistle of the last World Cup qualifier.


Gulfstream Park Race 5 (7.47pm)
The Ginger Punch – A stake for Florida bred fillies and mares – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 1/16 Miles - Turf

Madame Uno (2) has really been turned around since returning to Florida and joining trainer David Fawkes. She rattled up a hat-trick, the last was a similar stake to today’s. Her win streak ended when beaten three lengths in an open stake here. She’s been freshened up since that race in April. Now back with her fellow Florida breds, she looks the gal to beat. Madame Uno can front-run or stalk the pace. She may have to do the latter if the pacey Magalie (7) is ridden aggressively early on.

Warranty (4) beat Madame Uno at Belmont in September before winning back to back starts at Gulfstream. At her best, she’s very dangerous. The worry is an absence since January and leaving trainer Chad Brown. Admiral's Win (1) finished just behind her in December. She narrowly touched off Bitacora (3) when they met in March. That filly has held her form well since and comes off an allowance victory last month. She has a fine late kick given the right conditions.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Madame Uno (2)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Santa Anita Race 3 (9.30pm)
The Rainbow – A stake for 3 year olds – 1 1/8 Miles - Turf

The former Gordon Elliott trained River Boyne (4) has looked a useful colt since moving to California. He rattled up a hat-trick including a local stakes victory in March. Off the back of that, he was made 3/1 favourite for a prestigious turf Grade 2 for three year olds on The Kentucky Derby undercard. He ran below form but was only beaten three lengths. His trainer Jeff Mullins is adamant the very soft ground was against him. He is likely to be all the rage to rebound and make if four from four on the Santa Anita turf track.

Doug O’Neill runs a pair here. A literal interpretation of his last run makes him the one to beat as he finished a length in front of River Boyne in that Churchill Grade 2. That after being steadied into the first turn. He may be on the lead or more likely stalk barn mate Blame the Rider (3). He’s looked improved since trying the turf. A maiden win in April was followed by a head victory in a stake.

The former Richard Hannon trained Move Over (2) lost narrowly to Blame the Rider in that stakes event. He franked the form by winning an allowance event next time.

PAUL'S SELECTION
River Boyne (4)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Belmont Park Race 7 (9.46pm)
Claiming $25,000 – 3 year olds and upwards – 6 Furlongs - Turf

The former Charlie Hills trained Dancetrack (10) had been campaigned as a miler Stateside but has run two fine races since being cut back to six furlongs. In the latest on his seasonal debut, he beat Saratoga Heater (12) by two lengths here in April. He was claimed out of that event and his new trainer has waited out his ‘jail time’ and runs him back at the same level.

Dancetrack is a late runner who should get speed to chase down with a quartet of front-end types entered. The best of them may be Anytime Anyplace (8) who has form in better races. His only run on turf came over shorter. So has Gulfstream invader Our Independence (1). His form in Florida makes him a player.

All Star Red (7) may be a price after two below par efforts on dirt since he returned in April. He is unexposed on turf. On his last run on the grass, he was beaten less than three lengths in a stakes calibre allowance event. He gets the vote on the class drop.

PAUL'S SELECTION
All Star Red (7)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Woodbine Race 8 (9.57pm)
The Steady Growth – A state bred stake – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 1/16 Miles – Tapeta

Keen Gizmo (3) won this race last year on his seasonal debut with Nipigon (8) back in third. He only raced twice more in 2017, running poorly both times. His comeback less than a fortnight ago was a modest one also. He has questions to answer and others in here make more appeal.

Mr Havercamp (9) had a super first season. He won four starts either side of a decent effort in a Grade 3 at Saratoga. He won a stake by seven lengths on turf in October before running second in a stake on Polytrack in December. He may have gone close there but for ducking out in the straight. He looks a prime contender on his four year old debut.

Mr Havercamp will have to beat the runner that beat him in that stake in December. Kingsport (1) ended a long, losing run with a two and a half length victory. He made a fine return to the races last month, running fourth in a deep allowance event.

Stretch out sprinter Singandcryindubai (7) may be loose on the lead. He’s untested at this distance and his form is shy of the best of these. When a trainer like Norman McKnight is winning at over 40% at this meet, it would be unwise to think he can’t wire these.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Kingsport (1)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Belmont Park Race 8 (10.18pm)
Allowance (entry level) – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 Mile - Turf

Lunaire (3) is stepped back up in distance after staying on fourth over six furlongs last month. He is a one run closer who is far from guaranteed to get fast fractions to chase down. Similar comments apply to his old rival Kulin Rock (2) who is less exposed. The in form The J Y (12) is far less pace dependent. He upset fellow New York breds on his 2018 return. His wide post over this one mile configuration is not ideal.

Catch a Cab (4) is improving and on a roll. He made it a hat-trick of victories over course and distance a fortnight ago. It’s hard to argue his claims based on speed figures although he’s had perfect set ups on his last two where they’ve gone mad up front.

Compagno (7) was switched to turf to some effect beating claimers easily last month. Maybe Slot (6) will do the same. He broke his maiden on dirt last time but is bred to handle grass. What makes him especially playable is he has speed in a pretty paceless affair. Manuel Franco could have him on a soft lead.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Slot (6)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) Slot (6) and Compagno (7)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Woodbine Race 9 (10.30pm)
Allowance Optional Claiming – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 1/16 Miles – Tapeta

Many of these ran in a similar event over course and distance last month. Decorated Soldier (4) went wire to wire, running first time after a claim by the meet’s leading trainer Norman McKnight. He could do so again as the five year old looks lone speed here. Of the beaten horses U S Marshal (2) and Ethical Funds (7) may come on for their first runs of the year and Tale of the Nile (6) has better back races.

The dangers to Decorated Soldier may be runners who he didn’t face last time. The most obvious one The Mark Casse trained Keep Quiet (5). He was a Grade 3 winner as a juvenile before missing all of his three year old season. He’s ran well in deep races on turf since he returned and now makes his debut on Tapeta. That’s not the case with his former barn mate Florida Won (1) He was claimed by Norman McKnight on his local return last month. Not only does his new trainer win at an amazing rate but he excels with recent acquisitions. Bearing in mind the back class of Florida Won, he could be worth siding with.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Florida Won (1)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Belmont Park Race 9 (10.50pm)
The Dancin Renee – A stake for New York bred fillies and mares – 3 year olds and upwards – 6 Furlongs - Dirt

Holiday Disguise (5) has had a diet of stakes since winning back to back starts in the spring of 2017. Her record since then has been excellent. She has won a Grade 3 and perfect in a trio of stakes events against fellow New York breds. Last month she was a winner over a mile but has form over six and seven furlongs. Provided she has pace to chase down, this shorter distance won’t beat her. If old rival Bluegrass Flag (1) and Cozzy Spring (2) both run, the early fractions should be at least honest. The last named comes off a fine effort in defeat in open company. She lost to her barn mate Absatootly (7) in a stake last October. That five year old has had some time away since a poor run in January. She has been working really well for her return. Like Holiday Disguise, at her best she is one of the leaders in this division in New York.

Picco Uno lost badly to Holiday Disguise in April. She had Absatootly back in third when winning a stake at Saratoga last August. She has price appeal. So too may the unbeaten Still There (4). She slammed nine rivals by seven lengths to win an allowance event here last month. If she takes another step forward on only career start number three, she will be right there.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Holiday Disguise (5)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


Santa Anita Race 6 (11.00pm)
The Summertime Oaks (Grade 2) – 3 year old fillies – 1 1/16 Miles - Dirt

Thirteen Squared (1) was stepped up to two turns for the first time in a local Grade 3 in March. The result was a fine runner up try. The winner went on to take The Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. Thirteen Squared finished a well held third then but paid the price for setting quick fractions. Bob Baffert shortened her up next time to seven furlongs. Again she attended a very swift pace and again ran below her best. The first quarter here won’t be run in 44 and change but she does have a likely pace partner of if Tyler Baze wants to lead. Ollie's Candy (6) has won both her career starts at Golden Gate Fields. She is now stepped up in distance and class.

Ollie's Candy is bred to handle today’s distance but she and the rail drawn filly may set things up for something else. The obvious one is Chocolate Martini (5). She won The Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks with a string late surge. Next time, she was a never dangerous fifth in The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She will take money on the class drop.

Exuberance (3) may be a late threat at a price. She has excuses for her last two runs.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Chocolate Martini (5)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets


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