PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Belmont Park races 3 to 8
Wednesday 28 September 2016
Belmont Park Race 3 (7.32pm)
Maiden Special Weight - New York bred fillies and mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 1/16 Miles - Turf
Virtually no throw outs in this maiden. Talkn Til Midnight (5) and Preying Mantis (1A) have the best form at this level with placed efforts in the summer. Jennifer's Legacy (2) and Brass Cat (7) finished close up in a maiden claimer last month with the latter showing her first form. That quartet can win this but it may be an idea to look for a new face.
The Chad Brown trained Cashconsiderations (6) is a likely improver getting on the turf. She's been working well lately. Town Fair (1) and Amber Dancer (4) have showed ability in sprints. Both are bred to be routers. The former has the better form but Amber Dancer has had only two starts and improved from her debut to be an even running fourth on her first try on grass.
Amber Dancer (4)
Belmont Park Race 4 (8.04pm)
Claiming $25,000 - 3 year olds and upwards - Non winners of 2 races lifetime - 6 Furlongs - Turf
Virga (5) has run a trio of fine races since trying the turf. He was dropped from maiden special weights a fortnight ago and broke his maiden over course and distance easily. His connections have resisted the temptation to run him as an outside chance in an allowance event and instead keep him in a claimer. The good news is his chances of victory are far greater but they may end up losing him as a result. He made all last time but has a stalking gear in him.
Canarsie Kid (2) is back in New York after a couple of placed efforts at Monmouth. They were over shorter distances than today but has run well in both his previous starts over six furlongs. His form is at a similar level to Virga but may not the improvement in him that is less exposed rival has. That may also be the case with Bow Tie Affair (12) and Stormin Stephen (11). Both drop in class with the latter having a troubled trip last time.
Belmont Park Race 5 (8.36pm)
Allowance Optional Claiming - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 Mile - Turf
Many ways to go here. If in doubt, go with Chad Brown may be the best policy. America's top turf trainer runs Intensity (6) here. He broke his maiden on his lone start as a juvenile and didn't reappear until early this month. He ran fourth in a decent race for the level, fading late on as lack of a race may have took its toll. There is a good chance he improves off that run. He will have to as some of these have slightly better form.
Cloontia (4) goes from strength to strength. The New York bred has been first past the post in four of his last five starts. The only exception was at Saratoga in early August when he paid the price for being too close to a fast pace and faded a little late on. The winner of that event was Forever In Love (9). He will benefit if his old rival hooks up with Toughest 'ombre (3) early. He ran poorly in blinkers last time. Take out that run and he is a player now running without headgear. He has form in stakes events. So too does Mighty Mo (1) who had a troubled trip in his last start.
Mr. Magic (7) was dropped to a maiden claimer second time out and wired a field by four lengths. He may have better to come. Todd Pletcher could have easily ran him back to be claimed so his appearance in an allowance event is a positive sign.
Belmont Park Race 6 (9.09pm)
Claiming $25,000 - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 1/16 Miles - Turf
The class plunging Xaverian (9) is clearly the horse to beat here. He was claimed by David Jacobson for $62,500 and now he runs first time back at a 60% discount. It is not an unusual move by his trainer and many a time it has been successful. He gets the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. suggesting the wheels are not likely to fall off. The bigger worry with him is this distance. He did win a stake at Gulfstream in June over a mile. That event was run at fast fractions and there is a lack of pace in this event. He may be simply too good for this field but it is a worry at a short price.
Many of Xaverian's inferior rivals have similar form but most of them are late runners who also may not be suited by the way this race is run. The best of them could be Frogman Mel (2) who may be able to be positioned forwardly. More chancy but arguably more dangerous is Little Jerry (4). He's ran below form in a trio of better events since wiring a field here in May. He makes a quick reappearance after a fading runner up try on dirt less than a fortnight ago. He's likely to be loose on an easy lead here. That may be enough for a big effort.
Little Jerry (4)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Little Jerry (4) and Xaverian (9)
Belmont Park Race 7 (9.41pm)
Allowance (entry level) - Fillies and Mares - New York bred 3 year olds and upwards - 6 ½ Furlongs - Dirt
Ginned Up (8) was a fair third at this level on her last start on dirt. She finished just in front of the less exposed B Three (1) with Love You Babe (4) and Even Bette (5) further drift. The last named did have a troubled trip but only B Three may have any improvement in her.
As those that have raced at this level are beatable, it looks a race to give a long look to the new faces. Cahirciveen (3) broke her maiden by 10 lengths on just her second start. It did come in an event taken off the turf against only three rivals and in a route. The speed figure she ran puts her right in this if she copes with the cut back in distance.
Trappe Play (6) broke her maiden at first asking over course and distance last September. She faded badly in a stake for juveniles over a mile a month later. She's been working really well for her comeback and she obviously fires fresh. If she avoids a speed duel with E Warfare (7), she may go close here.
Trappe Play (6)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Cahirciveen (3) and Trappe Play (6)
Belmont Park Race 8 (10.13pm)
Allowance Optional Claiming - New York bred fillies and mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 Mile - Dirt
Katniss The Victor (1A) won an allowance event in March. She's only had one start since and a fine one too. She lost a tight one when third in a stake at Finger Lakes in July. Now running in blinkers first time, she looks a big player. Her barn mate Tahoe Tigress (1) has claims too. She steps up to her best distance after being claimed at Saratoga.
Highway Star (8) may be worth siding with here. She represents a low percentage trainer but he has done little wrong with her in three starts on dirt. After winning her first two races, she tried a stake on dirt (after a poor effort on turf. The result was a decent third over a trip that may have stretched her stamina. Not only is she dropped in class here but gets a massive rider switch to John Velazquez.
Hot House Rose (2) is another stakes race class dropper. Lutheran Miss (5) goes in a different direction after a hat-trick of claiming victories by open lengths. Bella Joy (6) and Conquest Superstep (7) are better than their recent form suggests.
Highway Star (8)
Combination Exacta (6 bets): Katniss The Victor (1A), Lutheran Miss (5) and Highway Star (8)