PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Will Rogers Downs races 1 to 6
Tuesday 28 March 2017
Will Rogers Downs Race 1 (7.05pm)
Claiming $7,500 - Fillies and Mares - 3 year olds and upwards - Non winners of 3 races lifetime - 5 Furlongs - Dirt
Little Treat (1) showed improved form on her comeback on her first start for her current trainer. She beat a field of one time career winners here by over seven lengths. If it wasn't just the muddy track that improved her, she has decent claims of doubling up. The worry is she is likely to be overbet bearing in mind that caveat.
Sugarshaking (3) who ran a fine second at this level on her return is one alternative. Another is Own the Night (4). On face value, a dozen length beating on her first start 2017 is hardly an encouraging sign. It did come in a lot tougher event at Oaklawn. She ran a trio of fine races at this meet last year and is likely to improve second time back after a six month absence.
Performance Writer (5) has been running well at Sam Houston. Based on the speed figures she's been running, The Texas invader is a contender on her local debut.
Own the Night (4)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Sugarshaking (3) and Own the Night (4)
Will Rogers Downs Race 2 (7.33pm)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 - 3 year olds and upwards - 1 Mile 7 yards - Dirt
Storm Express (4) was no match for a maiden special weight field last week. Prior to that, he ran second at this level on his local debut. On that form he holds Wildwood's Prize (3) and Quiet and Elusive (2). Both those runners have angles in. The first named ran below his Oaklawn form after a poor start. Quiet and Elusive was making his first start in over four months.
Codeslinger (1) showed nothing on debut at Oaklawn earlier this month. It was in a much better maiden and over six furlongs. He is bred top and bottom for this sort of distance. In addition, he's been recently gelded and has joined a trainer on fire in the early weeks of this meet. There are enough angles to think he could come to life second time out.
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Codeslinger (1) and Wildwood's Prize (3)
Will Rogers Downs Race 3 (8.01pm)
Maiden Special Weight - 3 year olds and upwards - Furlongs - Dirt
Over two lengths separated Snowcone Bob (3) and Danny Paycheck (4) when they were second and fourth in a maiden here on opening week. The final time was good and the winner had previously shaped well in Arkansas. Both three year olds showed improved form with the twice raced Snowcone Bob taken to confirm the form.
Gospel Cruiser (6) was a shock runner up at 100/1 at Remington in August. He ran nowhere near that form on his only subsequent start in November. Typha (2) went to the sidelines after fading in a swiftly run event at Canterbury last July.
Snowcone Bob (3)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Snowcone Bob (3) and Danny Paycheck (4)
Will Rogers Downs Race 4 (8.27pm)
Claiming $7,500 - Fillies and Mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 6 Furlongs - Dirt
Behind Closeddoors (6) had Liquor Lies (1) over a length back in second when winning a slightly cheaper claimer at Sam Houston last month. Both mares have operated at this and higher levels in the recent past. They are contenders in a tight event.
Exy Xanadu (2) hasn't been out since wiring a field of two-time career winners in December. Steva La Diva (3) has a similar lay off to defy. The last time she ran in a claimer, she was a winner in October.
Cookin Sue (5) gets a class test after an open length victory over three time career winners. Zan Creek (4) gets class relief after being overmatched in a starter allowance event at Oaklawn 12 days ago. She may not get the respect in the market she deserves and could be the risks/rewards play.
Zan Creek (4)
Will Rogers Downs Race 5 (8.53pm)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 - Oklahoma bred fillies and mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 6 Furlongs - Dirt
Bombshell Brown (6) ran an encouraging fourth in a maiden special weight just over a fortnight ago. She looks interesting running again for sale and now facing fellow Oklahoma breds. Preference is for Blueskygreengrass (1). She showed glimpses of ability in better maidens at Remington last year. The 'in' with her as well as the class drop is running first time for a trainer on fire at this meet.
Strolling Pippa (8) has been away eight months when gradually fading in a swiftly run event on her comeback eight days ago. This is a better spot and she is likely to be fitter.
Pride of Ellerton (4) and Catawba's Cube (5) both were slowly away in their respective debuts. The former's came here and she was noted making steady late headway. Catawba's Cube faced much tougher competition in Arkansas. In a weak maiden claimer, both fillies are worth a look at likely big prices.
Will Rogers Downs Race 6 (9.19pm)
Claiming $7,500 - 3 year olds and upwards - 5 ½ Furlongs - Dirt
A couple of these faced stakes company last time. The late running Yonaguska Boy (3) rounded out 2016 in a trio of such events and is more realistically spotted on his comeback. Valid Nick (7) has a recency edge. He ran fifth in a stake at Sam Houston after wiring claimers at Delta Downs. His trainer places his horses where they can win. He looks the horse to beat plunging in class.
Valid Nick is arguably better at five furlongs. If he is softened up, the likes of Yonaguska Boy may be able to run him down. Peacenquiet (6) could be late player. He gets a class test after drawing away from a field of two-time winners on his local debut 15 days ago.
Dust 'Em Early (1) drops in class for this, his third start back after a long absence. The last time Daring Artax (5) ran for Curtis Alpers, he was a winner last summer.
Valid Nick (7)