Paul Quigley's American Racing Preview

    Paul has selections with analysis for Wednesday night's Stateside action from Keeneland races 1 to 8 - live on At The Races
  • Wednesday 26 April 2017
  • Tipsters

PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM  Keeneland races 1 to 8
Wednesday 26 April 2017


Keeneland Race 1 (6.05pm)
Claiming $40,000 - 4 year olds and upwards - 6 Furlongs - Dirt

Wes Ward has his team in fine form at this meet. Many have been running big after long absences. That augurs well for the chances of his Royal Asset (6). He's a lightly raced five year old who hasn't been out since fading in an allowance event at Saratoga last August. He makes his return running first time for sale and after some encouraging local workouts.

Wildwood Dancer (3) and Ikerrin Road (4) also have been working well. The last named started off his career in Britain. He plunges in class and runs first time as a gelding. He's yet to prove himself on a dry dirt track.

The returning Whyruawesome (2) was a winner on his last visit here. Stormy Pacific (1) and Double Ours (5) have been running well at Oaklawn. They have claims in an event with no throw outs.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Royal Asset (6)

EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
Bet 365 | William Hill | Sky Bet | Betfair | RaceBets


Keeneland Race 2 (6.39pm)
Maiden Special Weight - 2 year olds - 4 ½ Furlongs - Dirt

Those that have raced did not show much on their respective debuts. The one exception possibly is Jersey Town Cat (5). He stalked the pace and lost most of his beaten nine lengths in the closing stages. The wide margin winner of that maiden was a well touted firster trained by Wes Ward. He runs Day of Reckoning (3) here. He is bred to go twice around the track and not to sprint but he has speed judging by his workouts.

Direct Dial (6) shows only three public workouts but he's likely to have been extensively prepared at one of Steve Asmussen's farms. He drilled swiftly over four furlongs locally form the gate last week. He's from a winning family and his trainer has a decent record with newcomers. As The Wes Ward runner may be overbet, he may be worth siding with.

Pete Marwick (8) has shown plenty of ability in the mornings. He does make his career debut without lasix.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Direct Dial (6)

EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
Bet 365 | William Hill | Sky Bet | Betfair | RaceBets


Keeneland Race 3 (7.12pm)
Starter Allowance - Fillies and Mares - 4 year olds and upwards - 7 Furlongs - Dirt

Rhodium (6) has won three times already this year including a four length victory over Mango's Muse (7) at Oaklawn in February. She made a successful return to Keeneland, wiring a similar field at the start of the month. If she makes the lead on her own, she could win her first race in five tries over seven furlongs.

I Am Miss Brown (5) and Gotit Todo (4) are late runners who may be able to run Rhodium down. The former is a claim back by trainer Chris Hartman and is on a hat-trick. Gotit Todo ran some big races at The Fair Grounds this winter. That includes a victory and a runner up try in allowance company. A lay off since February may mean she's one run short but she has plenty of upside dropping in class for her return.

Delusional K K (1) and Snuggle Struggle (3) come off claiming victories. The former's came locally. She has been competitive at higher levels in the past.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Gotit Todo (4)

EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
Bet 365 | William Hill | Sky Bet | Betfair | RaceBets


Keeneland Race 4 (7.45pm)
Maiden Special Weight - 2 year olds - 4 ½ Furlongs - Dirt

A big run by Direct Dial in race two would be a positive for the chances of his barn mate Copper Bullet (1). They worked together over four furlongs last week, both drilling nicely. He has a potentially good draw here. That is not the case with Todd Pletcher's Salmanazar (12). He's been working forwardly in Florida. His trainer had a couple of first time out juvenile winners last week. The likelihood is his runner will be well bet here and probably overbet.

Sky Promise (11) is another with a wide post. He debuts without lasix but sports a fine work tab. Price players may want to give him a look as well a couple of others in here. The trainer of Artegon (6) has a super record with first time starters. So has John Hancock, who runs Tigerbeach (7). His last two workouts over today's strip were very encouraging. His trainer's two year olds have been going well at this meet including a debut winner.

Nootka Sound (4) has to respected being a debutante trained by Wes Ward. She is entered in a maiden on Thursday against her own sex. Joel Rosario is booked to ride suggesting connections are more likely to run that day.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Tigerbeach (7)

EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
Bet 365 | William Hill | Sky Bet | Betfair | RaceBets


Keeneland Race 5 (8.18pm)
Allowance (entry level) - 3 year olds - 1 1/8 Miles - Turf

Take out a run on dirt and Makarios (4) has looked much improved since returning as a three year old. A convincing maiden win at Gulfstream was followed by a fine effort here. That was when running a closing third in a Grade 3 at the start of the month. If he repeats that effort now dropping in class, he will be tough to beat. He is a late runner in a paceless looking affair. That may be his Achilles Heel and that of Channel Maker (1). He rounded out his juvenile season with a decent effort at The Breeders' Cup. In an allowance event here earlier this month, he found the combination of a slow pace and the one mile distance too much to run down the leaders. More ground today helps but he may need Joel Rosario to ride him more aggressively the way this race plots to be run.

Avie's Mesa (3) has had only four starts. He ran a career best when third in a similar event at Gulfstream last month. He will have his backers. Less so Caustic (5) but he has upset claims. The Turf Paradise maiden winner could get very brave if he makes the lead on his own.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Channel Maker (1)

EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
Bet 365 | William Hill | Sky Bet | Betfair | RaceBets


Keeneland Race 6 (8.51pm)
Claiming $20,000 - 3 year olds and upwards - Non winners of 2 races lifetime - 1 1/16 Miles - Dirt

Dunk a Din (1) had Oriental Crown (6) over four lengths back in third when a head runner up in a similar event at The Fair Grounds last month. That was when running first time for deadly combination of trainer Tom Amoss and owner Maggi Moss. The four year old is just about the horse to beat off that run.

Elitch (3) is relatively unexposed and looks a player here on the class drop. He didn't seem to handle the turf when trying it for the first time at Tampa last month. His runs on dirt prior to that are worth bearing in mind. He broke his maiden on his return in January. Four weeks later, he ran third in an allowance event. He now runs first time for sale today.

Strictly on form McHenry (8), Krewe Chief (9) and even Spanish Squeeze (11) are players. All three have yet to prove themselves on dirt. High Multiple (10) has. He wired maiden claimers locally ridden as today by his seven pound claiming rider.

Dragunov (12) has a long lay off to defy. He runs in a career low spot and his trainer has had success with limited starters at this meet.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Elitch (3)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Dunk a Din (1) and Elitch (3)

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
Bet 365 | William Hill | Sky Bet | Betfair | RaceBets


Keeneland Race 7 (9.24pm)
Allowance (entry level) - 3 year olds - 1 1/8 Miles - Turf

Three of these come out of stakes on Polytrack at Turfway. Gorgeous Kitten (2) ran third in The Rushaway. His only start on turf came on debut when running a fine second at Gulfstream. The surface switch won't be a problem to him. It won't be an issue to Giant Payday (3) and Soglio (5) who ran sixth and seventh respectively in The Grade 3 Spiral. The first named ran even better in a Grade 3 on turf in Florida prior to that. He now races in blinkers for the first time. Soglio may do the best of the trio getting back on the grass. His maiden breaker came on turf as well as a close up runner up in a stake at Santa Anita.

There are alternatives to the stakes race class droppers from Turfway. Dontblamerocket (4), Untimed Play (6) and Don't Split Tens (8) have showed enough ability at The Fair Grounds to contend in a race of this nature. Young American (7) runs first time as a gelding and makes a rare start on turf.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Soglio (5)

EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
Bet 365 | William Hill | Sky Bet | Betfair | RaceBets


Keeneland Race 8 (9.57pm)
Maiden Claiming $20,000 - Fillies and Mares - 3 year olds and upwards - 6 Furlongs - Dirt

Love Me in Malibu (6) ran second at this level at Gulfstream last month. That was on turf and over two turns. She has shaped well in limited chances in dirt sprints but looks vulnerable if anything can step up. That's what Lyons Bay Vista (8) did from her debut. She set the pace and faded to be second best in a maiden claimer at Tampa over seven furlongs. The cut back in distance may see her last a lot longer.

There'syourtrouble (1) took no money on her debut in a maiden special weight at The Fair Grounds. She stalked the pace and gradually faded, coming home in her own time. Her 15 length beating did not do her effort justice. With the benefit of that outing, she is likely to be a different proposition. Steve Asmussen gives her every chance to contend now running her in a maiden claimer.

Overhold (9) is a first time starter for Wes Ward. She has worked well locally and before that at Turfway. She will be ridden by Arny Fontanez. He's only has three rides all year. His record is two victories and a stakes third. His record for Ward in 2016/2017 is a 50% strike rare from a dozen rides. If the market speaks in this debutantes favour, she moves to the top of the short list.

PAUL'S SELECTION
There'syourtrouble (1)

EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): There'syourtrouble (1) and Overhold (9)

BET ONLINE INTO THE US POOLS
You can place single and exotic bets with the following UK bookmakers:
Bet 365 | William Hill | Sky Bet | Betfair | RaceBets


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