Paul Quigley's American Racing Preview

    Paul has selections with analysis for Saturday night's Stateside action on December 7, from Aqueduct, Los Alamitos and Turf Paradise - Live on At The Races
  • Friday 08 December 2017
  • Tipsters

PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Aqueduct, Los Alamitos and Turf Paradise.
Saturday 9 December 2017


There is an intriguing stakes card at Gulfstream on Saturday. The more conventional events are in the first half of the card. They do clash with Wolverhampton’s evening fixture. The later races will get plenty of live coverage. They make up The Clasico Internacional del Caribe. That’s an international event that brings together top class racehorses from six countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in five stakes worth $600,000 in total. Whilst the races are fascinating, working out form from Panama, Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador, The Dominican Republic and some Stateside runners Mission Impossible as far as a I am concerned. I will leave those races to the experts. If you want some wagering advice and analysis both Ron Nicoletti and Jason Blewitt on The Gulfstream Park website have posted copy.

Luckily, there are stakes events at other venues on Saturday for me to concentrate on. Los Alamitos has took the race days allocated to the closed Hollywood Park at this time of year. The California venue host a pair of Grade 1’s for juveniles. The good news is they have relatively early post times for The West Coast so your bets will be settled and moneys credited by your bookmaker well before 11pm. Trainer Bob Baffert won The Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade 1) six times when run at Hollywood Park and all three running’s at its current location. He’s long odds on to win it again. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner up Solomini may be second choice in the market behind barn mate and impressive debut winner McKinzie.

Baffert has claims in the other Grade 1, The Starlet for two year old fillies. The market may have a trio vying for favourtism there.


Aqueduct Race 8 (8.47pm)
The Garland Of Roses – A stake for fillies and mares – 3 year olds and upwards – 6 Furlongs - Dirt

What complicates this race is that two of fillies are also entered for a similar stake at Laurel. Ms Locust Point (4) is one of them. She won a stake as a juvenile but has missed much of her three year old season after fading in a Grade 2 at Gulfstream last February. She was too good for overmatched rivals in an allowance event at Parx on her return last month. There may be better to come and she is likely to have the front to herself if she turns up.

Picco Uno (5) is likely to sit behind Ms Locust Point (or will be lone speed in her absence). She needs to rebound after a too bad to be true effort behind Absatootly (3) and Quezon (1) in a stake for New York breds at Belmont in late October. Interestingly, she beat that pair convincingly at Saratoga the time before. Quezon had looked like she’d get an overdue first victory of the year last time but deep closer Absatootly reeled her in late. If Ms Locust Point is scratched, the pace scenario seems to favour the rail drawn mare as well as Picco Uno.

Friend of Liberty (7) comes off a career best when a three length winner of an allowance event here last month. She looks a better filly than the one that finished some way behind Quezon in September. A wet track moves her up.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Picco Uno (5)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) Quezon (1) and Picco Uno (5)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Turf Paradise Race 5 (9.42pm)
The Arizona Breeders’ Futurity – A stake for 2 year olds bred in Arizona – 6 Furlongs – Dirt

Fortified Effort (6) is likely to be a short priced favourite here. He’s won both his starts at this current meet by open lengths. In October, he stalked the pacesetting Nehemiah (1) and drew off to win an allowance event. The runner up faded badly when Fortified Effort won a stake by four lengths last month. Oh Brother Jack (2) who broke his maiden by a wide margin ran second and with Beat the Heat (9) further adrift in fourth.

Oh Brother Jack has a chance of reversing the form if he can get clear early on this time. If not Fortified Effort’s biggest danger may be a juvenile returning to Arizona. Oldtoytrain (4) seemed too green to do himself justice on debut last April. He’s showed improved form in California since. He broke his maiden at Golden Gate Fields in September and ran creditably against winners at the same venue in late October. Those races were on Tapeta but he ran third in a starter allowance event at Pleasanton on dirt in between. That level of form is not far behind Fortified Effort and he may be three times the price as him. He’s worked really well locally recently and may be worth siding with.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Oldtoytrain (4)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Los Alamitos Race 3 (9.58pm)
The Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade 1) – 2 year olds – 1 1/16 Miles - Dirt

Bob Baffert is long odds on to win this event. His Solomini (3) broke his maiden at Del Mar on debut. He’s ran second in both starts since in Grade 1’s to two of the most accomplished juveniles around. He was no match for Bolt d’Oro at Santa Anita. Back at Del Mar n The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he was no match for Good Magic. In his favour is very solid form and two turn experience.

McKinzie (5) a barn mate of Solomini has only a maiden win to his name but he may head the market. That’s party as his barn mate has been second best by some way in those Grade 1’s but mainly for the manner of his debut win at Santa Anita in late October. He won by five lengths in a swift time. The runner up was a fellow newcomer but third had fair form and won next time out. Since that race McKinzie has produced a series of fine morning workouts. He’s bred to improve now stepping up in trip from seven furlongs.

It may be 10/1 bar the market leaders. Runaway Ghost (4) went to the sidelines after a maiden breaker at Santa Anita in June. He slammed a stakes field at Golden Gate Fields on his return last month. Instilled Regard (1) gets a class test after a clear cut victory over maidens at Santa Anita. Unsurprisingly, Mike Smith sticks with McKinzie over him.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Solomini (3)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Turf Paradise Race 6 (10.13pm)
The Cactus Wren – a stake for 3 year olds and upwards bred or sold at auction in Arizona – 6 ½ Furlongs - Dirt

Shrewd Move (8) made a winning local return in October. He attended swift fractions and drew off from six rivals to win an open stakes event. On the back of that, he was again a warm order to win another stake here a month later. He was in the mix early but surprisingly faded late on. Eye-popping workouts over four and five furlongs since are a big hint he’ll rebound here. If he does, he’ll be hard to reel in as he has the best form in this line up.

Coolidge (1) ran a decent fourth in a stake at Century Downs in Canada when last seen out in late October. The last time he ran here, he ran second in this race last year. He’s a likely late threat. The worry with him is a long, losing streak. It was on this card two years ago he last got his head in front. By contrast, Yo Y Me (6) has been very prolific. He won six times in a ten month period including stakes events here and at Arapahoe Park. An absence since July is not a worry judging by a strong work tab. His form is not as strong as Shrewd Move but he’s only a three year old and there may be better to come.

Hawkeye Gold (5) and Ride Hard Kowboy (4) have absences since April to defy. The latter ran big fist time back in 2016.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Shrewd Move (8)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Los Alamitos Race 4 (10.28pm)
The Starlet (Grade 1) – 2 year old fillies – 1 1/16 Miles - Dirt

Piedi Bianchi (2) is the two turn standard setter here. She was a decent third in a Grade 1 over this distance at Santa Anita in September. In her only start since, she was far from disgraced when fifth in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She is not top class but if the fillies stretching from sprints don’t stay, this purse could go her way.

Bob Baffert’s Dream Tree (3) has won both her career starts. Interestingly, she has beaten the same filly and by the same nose margin. The latest was a seven furlong stake at Del Mar last month. She is bred to handle this extra yardage. So too is War Heroine (4). With her pedigree, you’d expect her to excel when trying two turns and the turf. She looked very good when winning a maiden sprinting on debut by almost seven lengths. Like Dream Tree, if she handles this longer distance she may handle the more exposed Piedi Bianchi.

Yesterday's News (5) ran her best race to date when second last month in an allowance event at Del Mar. It came on turf. Her form on dirt at least so far is only modest.

The field is rounded out by Exuberance (1) a six length maiden winner at Santa Anita last time.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Piedi Bianchi (2)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Turf Paradise Race 8 (11.13pm)
The Arizona Breeders’ Futurity – A stake for 2 year old fillies bred in Arizona – 6 Furlongs – Dirt

It is hard to get away from Foggia (4) who has been a clear cut winner of both her starts to date. She made all on her career debut in October. Less than three weeks later, she did the same to a pair of fillies who renew rivalry here. At the winning line, she had three lengths to spare over Littlesisterdon'tu (9) who was in turn over two lengths clear of Myrcella (5).

Littlesisterdon'tu was making her comeback and second start after winning on her debut at Canterbury in July. She may have improvement to come. In addition, she drew the rail last time and Glen Corbett should be able to work out a productive stalking trip from this post. Myrcella was not far behind Foggia in the betting following an 11 length maiden breaker at Los Alamitos in September. In terms of speed figures, she ran a similar one last time although she was bumped and squeezed at the start.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Littlesisterdon'tu (9)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


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