PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Gulfstream Park races 5 to 10
Thursday 19 January 2017
Gulfstream Park Race 5 (7.32pm)
Claiming $6,250 - 4 year olds and upwards - Non winners of 3 races lifetime - 1 Mile - Dirt
Only Todd Pletcher has won more races at this meet than Jorge Navarro. The trainer is likely to saddle the favourite here in Over the Limit (4). He's really turned the corner since being tried again on dirt, winning his second start in four tries on his local return last month. He did it by almost half a dozen lengths in wire to wire fashion. There looks to be one or two in here that may be quicker than him so he will have to be ridden more patiently. That wouldn't appear to be a problem based on his earlier form.
Jack West (1) ran his best race since a maiden breaker at Keeneland when winning here last month. He only just scrambled home but that run may be a springboard. His winning rider seems to prefer Over the Limit but he is a danger. So too is Sky Guy (3). He paid a compliment to Over the Limit who he was well beaten by to win five days later with a much improved effort. Prior to those runs, he's lost by 10 lengths to Gran Identidad (5) who freaked. He reverted to type next time with a poor effort over possibly a distance too short.
Over the Limit (4)
Gulfstream Park Race 6 (8.02pm)
Claiming $35,000 - 3 year olds - 1 Mile - Turf
Gray Dude (7) has a bit to find on form with the best of these. However, there are grounds for thinking he can improve. He's only had three starts, breaking his maiden on his first try on turf here last month. As he had to be steadied, he's value for more than the neck winning margin.
Class droppers Nassau Talent (1) and Get a Valentine (3) may head of the market. The former has run second and fourth in a pair of allowance races since getting back on turf. His owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey are never afraid to risk a horse in a claimer in an effort to win a purse. He's likely to be positioned behind Get a Valentine who can be ridden forwardly. He too has not been disgraced in better company since a maiden and a starter optional claiming victory.
Motown Man (8) is The X Factor here trying turf for the first time. Connections tried to get him on the turf here last time but the race was switched. The Churchill maiden winner gets the services on Julien Leparoux.
Gray Dude (7)
Reversed Exacta (2 bets): Get a Valentine (3) and Gray Dude (7)
Gulfstream Park Race 7 (8.32pm)
Maiden Claiming $35,000 - 3 year olds - 1 1/16 Miles - Turf
Wilshire Star (6) and K L S Forty Three (7) are the local standard setters. The former was claimed for $25,000 last month off a neck runner up try. That was his second silver medal in a row. His new connections reassess his value and run him for $10,000 more. His form is at a similar level to K L S Forty Three. He has run well in a pair of $50,000 maiden claimers since dropping in class from maiden special weights.
Passport to Chaos (4) is a new face to the track. He showed nothing in two starts on dirt before running much better when tried on the grass. On his turf debut, he was beaten less than five lengths for almost twice today's claiming price at Aqueduct in November. His trainer Jason Servis has made a fine start to this meet. He gets the nod on the class drop.
Sanfilipo (8) started off his career with fair efforts in maiden special weights. He hasn't run as well in a couple more since. Now running first time for sale, he has to be reckoned with.
Passport to Chaos (4)
Gulfstream Park Race 8 (9.02pm)
Claiming $16,000 - 4 year olds and upwards - 5 Furlongs - Turf
This is a competitive turf sprint on paper. A favoured solution in such circumstances here would be if in doubt, go for trainer Jorge Navarro. That still may be the case although the high percentage trainer complicates things by entering a pair. Global Magician (8) finally got his head on front last time after series of near misses. He could handle the class rise but preference is for barn mate More Mia (4). He disappointed behind evergreen eight year old Mornin Brew (1) in a similar event last month. He's worked well twice over four furlongs since. Off his back to back victories in September and October in New Jersey, he's the one to beat.
Bajan Rhythm (5) was dropped in class and put back on turf a fortnight ago. The result was a neck runner up at this level in a swiftly run race. The returning Partyallnightlong (6) was third and All About Yasom (3) a below par eighth. All three have contending form at their best.
More Mia (4)
Gulfstream Park Race 9 (9.32pm)
Claiming $30,000 - Fillies and Mares - 4 year olds and upwards - Non winners of 3 races lifetime - 1 Mile - Turf
There are five fillies and mares that have been on the lead in recent races. One of them is Vendita (2). A contested speed duel would look to scupper the class dropper's chances. There are grounds for thinking otherwise. She was successful in one of her two career victories from well off the pace. In addition, she goes from a 5lb claimer to the ever patient Julien Leparoux. Her run in an allowance event over five furlongs on her return was likely just for seasoning purposes.
Another class dropper Ortiga (5) has an adaptable running style. She may be ridden just off the pace with Matty's Wondergirl (9) who finished ahead of her in a starter allowance event on her return. Less so with in form Murray's Girl (6) who seems best on the engine.
There are a trio of capable late runners in here. Janine Melnitz (4) left Laurel in fine form. Believe Indeed (1) won last time at Tampa. Bareeqa (7) came from a long way back to beat one time winners locally.
Gulfstream Park Race 10 (10.02pm)
Maiden Claiming $16,000 - 3 year old fillies - 7 ½ Furlongs - Turf
Anthony Lass (1) is just about the standard setter here. She was stepped up to a mile and came within a neck of a wire to wire victory in a similar event. A draw on the fence is a positive. Her rider rather walked the dog on the front end last time and a similar trip is not guaranteed.
Grace's Drama (4) who has been placed a couple of times may rebound running first time for trainer Ralph Nicks. She is an obvious danger along with Operatic (11). She's drawn poorly in both her two turn starts to date and still ran encouragingly finishing fourth. Connections must be ruing their luck as she draws the wide outside again.
Terri Pompay's I B Mizzen Nothin (5) may be the best of the newcomers bearing in mind her trainer's fine record with them. She's likely to be a decent price. So will Stolen Sunday (10) under the excellent Nik Juarez. She took money on her debut despite her stout pedigree and it being over five furlongs. She did pass a few horses late on. This distance should bring out the best in her. If she takes not even a massive step forward second time out, she may make some noise here.
Stolen Sunday (10)