Paul Quigley's American Racing Preview

    Paul has selections with analysis for Saturday night's Stateside action on 18th November from Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park West and Laurel Park - Live on At The Races
  • Saturday 18 November 2017
  • Tipsters

PAUL'S ANALYSIS FROM Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park West and Laurel Park
Saturday 18 November 2017


There’s no sugar coating it. Stakes races at this time of year are thin on the ground. That doesn’t mean the racing is not worth watching and wagering on. There are some competitive events from a trio of venues in the preview below. All have interesting angles in. It has been stated many times before but a 5/2 winner of a claimer or an allowance event pays just as much as a 5/2 winner of a Grade 1.

The one stake in the main part of The Attheraces Stateside show comes from Aqueduct. The Artie Schiller is not a graded event but it has attracted runners with graded stakes form. Likely favourite Blacktype was successful in a Grade 2 last time. He and Night Prowler filled the places in last year’s renewal.


Aqueduct Race 7 (8.17pm)
Claiming $16,000 – 3 year olds and upwards – 6 Furlongs - Dirt

Will Did It (7), War Eagle's Return (9) and Sir Bond (3) were the 1-2-3 in a similar event over seven furlongs at Belmont last month. The three and a half length winner has tons of back class. He has a fine record at Aqueduct and should cope with the cut back in distance here. He now races for back in form trainer Robertino Diodoro.

Scarly Charly (6) was claimed out of higher priced event last month. He was a fair fourth, with Major League (8) behind him. He’s a contender along with Morning Buzz (4) after his near miss at Belmont last time. Down the track that day was Gambler's Ghost (2). He’s a rebound possibility as he looks to be lone speed here.

Bar None (5) is improving but does faces better than he beat last Saturday. Greeley's Farewell (1) is more realistically spotted second time back after a lay off. He’s been working well too.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Will Did It (7)
EXOTIC BETS
Combination Exacta (6 Bets) Gambler's Ghost (2), Scarly Charly (6) and Will Did It (7)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Laurel Park Race 7 (8.30pm)
Allowance (entry level) – Maryland bred 3 year olds and upwards – 6 Furlongs - Dirt

Bestkindoftrouble (4) is a lightly raced three year old. He has a pair of equally speedy rivals drawn either side of him. Victory Chimes (5) faded in a similar event as the favourite last time out in September. Martywiththeparty (3) tries the turf on his return but is much better on dirt. The trio could set this up for a stalker/closer.

Tricky Lion (6) made all to win a starter optional claimer on the turf last month. He’s equally effective when ridden with some restraint. Amazingly, he is winless in 11 starts on dirt but he’s run some fine races on the surface. That includes a runner up try in a similar event over course and distance in September.

Eastern Bay (1) made an encouraging return when second on the turf here last month. He’d been away since a fading in a stake over a mile in February. A month prior to that, he ran fourth in another stake over seven furlongs.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Tricky Lion (6)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) Eastern Bay (1) and Tricky Lion (6)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Aqueduct Race 8 (8.47pm)
The Artie Schiller – A stake for 3 year olds and upwards – 1 Mile - Turf

Blacktype (5) and Night Prowler (1) ran second and third respectively in this race last year. That was run on rain-softened ground. There are showers forecast so conditions may be similar this time. It is unlikely to be run as fast early as this event lacks any speed. Blacktype has managed to stay close to soft fractions when winning back to back races in September and October. In the first, he beat the consistent but luckless Night Prowler again. Latterly, he won a Grade 2 at Belmont. His penalty means he is 6lbs worse off for a length beating of his old rival.

Fire Away (2) came close to ending a long, losing run when second in a deep allowance event at Belmont last month. Monster Bea (10) ran well to be fourth. A length behind him came the comebacking A Lot (6). He was making his belated 2017 debut. In his last start over a mile, he ran second in a Grade 1 at Saratoga in August 2017. He has to prove he retains all of his ability. Like Night Prowler, he couldn’t be with a better trainer than Chad Brown. If he comes on for that run, he’s a danger to Blacktype and all.

Delta Prince (9) is a lightly raced and progressive four year old. He’s been freshened up after two big efforts at Saratoga. He drew off nicely from an allowance field and then ran third in a Grade 2. Jose Ortiz who looked to have other options in here rides him. He was aboard when he went close in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream in April.

Tizzarunner (11) made it back to back allowance victories at Laurel when outfinishing Wolf Rock (4) last month. He is tested for class today but is thriving since he joined trainer Mike Maker. Hollywood Hideaway (3) who was on the fringes in graded stakes at Woodbine when last seen out is interesting at a price.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Blacktype (5)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Laurel Park Race 8 (9.00pm)
Allowance Optional Claiming – Fillies and Mares - 3 year olds and upwards – 5 ½ Furlongs - Turf

Trainer Arnaud Delacour has all bases covered here. If this event is switched to the dirt his Mo'ne Davis (1) will be one of the leading players. If this stays on the grass, the unbeaten More'n Likely (1A) looks the filly to beat. She won on the dirt on debut in August but it was her allowance victory here when trying the turf that makes her a big player. She drew away late on from nine rivals earning a big speed figure in the process.

Northern Eclipse (4).and Sycee (10) are worth a look but is Elegant Supermodel (12) that makes the most appeal at the likely odds. She’s been racing in routes but did run well both here and at Belmont the last two times she’s raced in a sprint. The four year won’t mind a rain-softened turf course too.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Elegant Supermodel (12)
EXOTIC BETS
Reversed Exacta (2 Bets) More'n Likely (1A) and Elegant Supermodel (12)

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Gulfstream Park West 8 (9.06pm)
Allowance Optional Claiming – 3 year olds and upwards – 1 1/16 Miles - Turf

Dance Strike (7) won on her debut in August and only missed by a neck on her return last month. The twice raced daughter of Tapit looks a prime contender for trainer Mark Casse who also has Devise (10) in here. Todd Pletcher is also double handed. Slaimy (1) broke her maiden in June and then went to the sidelines. Barn mate Robusto (5) ran a sound race in the slop last time but her form on turf is slightly better.

Little Baltar (6) may offer a bit of value here. She was a non factor after a poor start in a stake last time out in September. Her form prior to that is as good as anything in here. She does lack the scope of some of these but her trainer is in fine form at this meet.

Take out a run on dirt and Coleman Rocky (3) has a chance at a decent price. Major Key (4) outran her odds in a stake last time.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Little Baltar (6)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Aqueduct Race 9 (9.17pm)
Maiden Special Weight – New York bred 2 year old fillies – 6 Furlongs – Dirt

Miss Hot Stones (13) has run second in both her starts to date. They were maidens at Belmont Park. She ran into a well intended newcomer last month and was well clear of the remainder. Now getting off the inside, she looks the filly to beat here. It's My Catiecat (9) and Turn and Bern (8) were well beaten behind Miss Hot Stones when making their career debuts. Both are likely to show a lot more. So is the well bred Kenzie (3) whose first start can be ignored.

Reata's Reward (4) showed plenty of speed when second on her career debut in September. She was claimed out of that race and freshened up. Judging by some super AM workouts, she’s likely to fire big first time for new connections. She is well worth a look. So too are Scorpion Bowl (5) and Sundance Joy (11), especially if they are the subject of support in the market. Both are first time starters for very capable trainers.

Placed form in Finger Lakes maiden special weights is rarely good enough to make a runner a contender on the big New York circuit. Forever Dreams (2) may be the exception. She ran second on debut upstate, earning a decent speed figure in the process. The well held third in that event has come back to win giving the race a solid look to it.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Miss Hot Stones (13)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


Gulfstream Park West 9 (9.37pm)
Claiming $6,250 – 3 year olds and upwards – 6 Furlongs - Dirt

Social Roy (2) landed a gamble on his comeback last month. He was claimed out of that event and he has to be a player running back at the same level. In his favour is very little competition for the early lead. There is a slight worry he was peaked to run big on his return and may regress second time back.

Starship Apollo (10) was also claimed after a victory at this grade a fortnight ago. He had More Applause (8) two lengths adrift in second and Big Boy Bruno (3) and Ausable (6) back in third and fourth. He plots to get a good stalking trip. So too should Stableford (9). He made his comeback in a better event on turf. That is arguably his best surface but he is capable of winning a race like this off his dirt form.

PAUL'S SELECTION
Stableford (9)
EXOTIC BETS
No Exotics

BET ON US RACING
You can place single and some exotic bets with many of the following UK bookmakers:
Betfair | William Hill | Sky Bet | Bet365 | Ladbrokes | Paddy Power |
Coral | Betway | Betfred | BoyleSports | RaceBets | Stan James


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