Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Stats Guide

By Paul Jones

Ahead of Daryz beating Minnie Hauk by a head in last season’s Arc (so he was emulating his sire and granddam Sea The Stars and Urban Sea) on ground described as very soft with 5½l back to the third and fourth who then went on to finish 1-2 in the Hong Kong Vase franking the form, Francis-Henri Graffard was adamant that The Aga Khan Studs’ work-in-progress at the time would make up into an even better four-year-old.

Two Group 1 wins over trips shy of his optimum in the spring and an Arc Trial success later, the defending title holder is therefore very much the one to beat in his bid to become the ninth dual winner of the race first contested in 1920. The home team have won 70 of them and the Aga Khan dynasty eight.

Daryz’s one defeat this season was on good to firm ground at Royal Ascot in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, a surface on which he never looked that happy, especially at 1m2f pace, so many will take the view that a greater danger of him not going back-to-back will be the ground and/or the draw rather the opposition. Therefore many will be keeping an eye on the weather forecast for Paris in the build up to Sunday and the draw which will be announced on Thursday evening.

With fifteen names confirmed on Tuesday (and the likelihood of the Prix Vermeille winner Friendly Soul being supplemented on Wednesday), the draw could be highly significant again just like it was last season when the first four were drawn in the five lowest stalls (the 1-2-3 were in the lowest three). 

This advantage off the back of 12 months earlier when all horses drawn 1-7 finished in the first nine positions in a field of 16 runners. Both of those runnings were run on ground officially described as very soft when the effect of the draw is not at its highest. The 2023 running was a 15-runner contest on good-to-soft ground, where the best finishing position that any of the sextet drawn in double figures could manage was seventh.

As many as 22 of the last 28 Arcs have been won by horses drawn between 1-8 (and 17 of the last 24 were drawn between 1-6). Stalls 2 and 6 have been particularly lucky with seven and six wins respectively since 1980.

So, in a big field and especially on a decent surface, a high stall is usually not good news in a race where horses racing out wide are giving away ground with right-hand bends aplenty. There is a fresh strip of ground not used since July being opened up against the rail and a five-metre cutaway will be in operation for the final two furlongs favouring lower-drawn horses all the more.

True, Dalakhani, Sakhee, Treve and Torquator Tasso overcame an outside draw but they did so, aided by holding or soft ground giving greater opportunity to work their way into the race so it can be argued that draw stats are not so important in those instances. Golden Horn overcame stall 14 of 17 on good ground having tracked over quickly to gain a prominent position. Kudos to him and the ride from Dettori.

Between 1986-2006, it was three-year-old colts that were all the rage winning 16 of the 21 runnings but fillies/mares have fared significantly better since then winning nine of the last 15 editions.

Their three best hopes this season according to the market are last year’s seventh (from an unfavourable double-figure draw), Kalpana, who has since won three Group 1s including against the boys in the King George, Joseph O’Brien’s Oaks winner Thundering On and Aidan O’Brien’s dual French Classic winner, Diamond Necklace, who now attempts 1m4f for the first time, like Ace Impact did when he won in 2023 and the Daryz last year. Before Ace Impact’s success, though, no Arc winner was having its first run over 1m4f since Saumarez in 1990.

Diamond Necklace is bidding to give Coolmore their third Arc success which is underperforming for an operation of their magnitude (2-58) and their record with three-year-olds is particularly poor, though Minnie Hauk went close last year, their first Classic generation representative to finish in the first two in over 30 attempts. That stat also doesn’t well for their Irish Derby winner, Benvenuto Cellini, who won’t want to see much rain. The opposite is the case for the runaway Coronation Cup winner in a bog, Bay City Roller.

The Yorkshire Oaks has featured two Arc winners and an unlucky second in the last nine years in Alpinista, Enable and Sea Of Class. Kalpana, possibly not at her best due to a hard-fought win at Ascot the previous month, scrambled her way to victory on the Knavesmire and looks to give Juddmonte their eighth Arc success following Rainbow Quest, Dancing Brave, Rail Link, Workforce, Enable (x2) and Bluestocking. 

Returning to Diamond Necklace who O’Brien has described as his best hope this season so expect Ryan Moore to ride, if she can win then she would be emulating Zarkava who also won the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks. 

After then adding the Nassau at Goodwood, Diamond Necklace was, however, beaten in the Prix Jean et Louis Romanet by the back-to-form Aventure (only eleventh when well fancied in last season’s Arc from an unfavourable double-figure draw) who was runner-up in the 2024 Arc behind Bluestocking.

In the absence of the injured Moore, Christophe Soumillon rode Diamond Necklace to win at this meeting last season but who will the ‘King Of Longchamp ride’? Despite that moniker his last win in the Arc was some 18 years ago on Zarkava.

He was aboard last season’s runner-up, Minnie Hauk, who some argued hit the front too soon but she’s now 0-5 in Group 1s against the boys. The Vermeille proved to be the key trial in 2024 with the 1-2 filling the same positions in the Arc but Aventure is now a five-year-old mare. That said, Alpinista was likewise when she won in 2022 and Waldgeist in 2019 was also a five-year-old. We have to go back to 1932 to find the only Arc winner aged older.

Two of the last seven winners, Waldgeist and Sottsass, were both home hopes beaten in the previous year’s running. In fact, four of the last 12 winners contested the race 12 months earlier so there is hope for last season’s unplaced fillies, especially if they fare better with the draw this time.

In addition to Daryz, Graffard and Aga Khan Studs are set to run their Prix Niel winner, Varandir. Before fillies/mares started to take over in the Arc, the Niel for three-year-old colts was the key guide, but no winner of that race has followed up in the Arc now since Rail Link in 2006.

The Derby runner-up, Maltese Cross, then beat Varandir into fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris before overcoming a penalty to win the Great Voltigeur, so has continued his progression since Epsom, unlike other horses from Derby Day. It is rare for an Arc-winning three-year-old not to have won a Classic earlier in the season (another stat that Daryz overcame 12 months ago) which is what Maltese Cross is bidding to do. Can he give William Haggas his first Arc having gone so close with the arguably-unlucky Sea Of Class?

There is no Arc representative for Andre Fabre this year so he won’t be adding to his eight victories but Jean-Claude Rouget looks set to run his last Arc runner before retirement in the shape of outsider, Arrow Eagle, looking to add to his wins in recent years with Sottsass and Ace Impact.

The late-developing three-year-old Sagamix (1998) was one of Fabre’s eight winners when having just his fourth career start and therefore his first run in a Group 1. Since then, only Solemia of Arc winners had not won at the highest level beforehand.

The Japanese played three big cards last season but they all finished unplaced on very soft ground so are still looking for their first Arc success despite five second-place finishes (0-35 overall). They look weaker than usual quality-wise this time, which is ironic as the faster ground this season would be more in their favour than for the last couple of runnings. Meisho Tabaru arrives here off a Grade 1 win in his homeland and looks their best hope over Admire Terra.

Of the 26 winners this century, 20 had won last time out and 16 had run at ParisLongchamp before - stats that look around par for the course.

The Irish Champion Stakes has the best recent current-season guide featuring four of the last 17 winners but the chief protagonists are missing this time.