Total Performance Data tips: Qatar Prix du Cadran

By Adam Mills

Published 09:25 - 30/09  

Ah the joys of taking an ante-post position! No sooner had I included Pearled Majesty as one of the two selections for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in this column after he passed the first forfeit stage on Monday, he was scratched on Tuesday morning at the second stage. 

He will now head to Ascot Alas, it will be Daryz for me and the smaller the field becomes, the more confident I am that he will simply have too much speed. Moving on, we received the entries for Saturday’s big races on Tuesday morning and there is a solid case to be made for one in the Prix du Cadran.

The really extreme trips can sometimes be hard to assess and the 4000m of the Prix du Cadran has thrown up a few shocks in recent years, but this year I expect it to follow a much more familiar pattern.

CABALLO DE MARwon this race by a length and three-quarters in 2025, but having raced prominently throughout in a race run with a finishing speed of 115%, he was comfortably on top in the closing stages with the fastest split in the field for each of the last 2 furlongs. A steady pace over this trip is not that surprising and he encountered a similar setup when winning the Group 1 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier in May, taking his record at ParisLongchamp to a perfect 2 from 2.

He found the Gold Cup at Ascot a step too far behind Scandinavia and showed signs of heat stress after the race, so I think we can put aside any concerns about his stamina in that race. Caballo De Mar bounced right back to form in the Doncaster Cup last time, quickening with a race best 11.54s for the penultimate furlong to put the race to bed. 

That wasn’t a great race, but with a finishing speed above 111%, it was really just a piece of work for Caballo de Mar, who relaxed perfectly in the middle part of the race as his average stride frequency dropped to 2.05 strides per second from an overall race average of 2.14. The ability to relax in the middle part of a race has been the key to Caballo De Mar’s success and the galloping nature of the track at ParisLongchamp, with the downhill approach to the home straight, suits him perfectly. 

He reached a top speed of 39.5 mph at Doncaster, above the TPD Expected Top Speed figure for a course and distance at Doncaster and as he showed in this race last year, Caballo De Mar is more than capable of winning the sprint finish if this does become a tactical affair. 

At the time of writing, the ground is forecast to be 3,3 or 3,4 on the penetrometer, the equivalent to Good, Good to Firm in places in UK terms, so Caballo de Mar is likely to get ground that is slightly faster than it was at Doncaster a few weeks ago. However, it read 3,8 in this race last year and 3,7 in May and he has shown himself capable of handling a slightly faster surface in the past, even if some rain would probably be welcomed.

If Scandinavia lines up, then this will become a much more difficult assignment. Aidan O’Brien’s star stayer is the best horse in this division, but at Ascot his top speed (37.51 mph) ranked 7th, at Goodwood it was 2nd and even on soft ground in last year’s St Leger his top speed ranked only 5th. 

For that reason, if he has any vulnerability, it is likely to come on a speed-favouring course like ParisLongchamp and the more tactical the race becomes, the more I would be keen to try and get him beaten. Queenstown may well be used as a pacemaker to try and negate that risk, but Caballo De Mar has proved form at the track and is much more likely to see out this extreme trip in Paris than he was at Ascot in June. 

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.