Barry Faulkner's US Racing Preview

For my Friday preview, I have had a look at a couple of Allowance races from Belmont Park wrapped around another at Keeneland and a tricky-looking conditional Claimer at Woodbine.

Hopefully the analysis below will guide you to some profitable play but, whichever way you make your picks, good luck everyone!

Belmont Park, Keeneland and Woodbine for Friday 16th October 2026

Belmont Park 7 (9.31pm)

Allowance N1X or N2L – 3-year-olds and upwards – One mile and half a furlong – Dirt

After winning in the first two Allowance levels for New York-breds to close out his 2025 campaign, the first by 8½ lengths and the second by 12 lengths, Moe Eighty Eight (1) was subsequently beaten by 5 lengths into 2nd in his first try in one of these when going off as the 3-10 favourite. That was going seven furlongs at Aqueduct at the beginning of February. Then upped to this trip at Oaklawn Park at the end of March, he finished 4¾-lengths 4th when sent off as the jolly once again, at 7-5 on that occasion. Although that track is the hottest at that time of year, he was still expected to do better. Off for close to seven months, he has since switched to the barn of Amelia Green and is returning with a regular set of solid works, going back to late August.

Edging the lad inside him for favouritism on the Morning Line is PAPA YO (2). He was also busy during the Oaklawn Park season, but in his case it was in the Claiming ranks. He won a split condition, $40,000 contest in late December and followed that with a victory in an unrestricted $32,000 event on his next start in early March. Now with Linda Rice, he won a $55,000 Starter Allowance by 5¼ lengths at Saratoga a week into August before finishing 2¾-lengths 2nd in one of these there a month later. That recency gives him the advantage here for me.

Selection: PAPA YO (2)

Keeneland 8 (9.44pm)

Allowance N1X or N2L – 3-year-olds and upwards – Five and a half furlongs – Turf

Bred to go a trip, BEAUTIFUL WAR (4) started his career in five races over trips between a mile and nine and a half furlongs. The three-year-old won on debut, getting up well late going a mile to win a Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park in early February. After failing to hit the frame in four various entry level Allowances over that trip or further, he was cut back to six furlongs for the first time in a Black-Type Stake at Colonial Downs in early August. After pressing the pace, he challenged on the home turn and had a length lead at the furlong pole before eventually going down to a neck defeat to the 9-5 favourite, having drifted out slightly late on. A month later he put up another good effort when ¾-length 3rd as a tepid favourite in an entry level Allowance at Kentucky Downs going 110 yards further.

Wesley Ward runs a couple here in the very stoutly-bred Red Square (7) and Gypsy Art (12). The former has gone off as favourite in his three races so far, all Maiden Special Weights. On his debut at the end of June, the three-year-old started slowly going five furlongs at Churchill Downs before keeping on well to finish 3-lengths 3rd. Nineteen days later over half a furlong further at Saratoga, he broke though the starting gate and then got bumped at the break when finishing 4th, eventually beaten 1½ lengths by the winner and a length by the runner up. That lad then finished 2nd again, but this time 1¾ lengths behind Red Square (7) when the pair met at Kentucky Downs going six and a half furlongs in the first week of last month. He then gave that form a boost by winning his own Maiden Special Weight on his next start.

Gypsy Art (12) managed to get off the mark on his fifth start when picking up a Maiden Special Weight going five furlongs at Churchill Downs in May, putting in a strong kick to win it by a neck as the 6-4 favourite. He then finished 1½-lengths 2nd on his first try at this level over the same course and distance the following month. However, he has not matched that level of form in two starts since.

Second-reserve Cinister Cix (14) would have a shot if he gets in, but Beautiful War (4) is the one for me here.

Selection: BEAUTIFUL WAR (4)

Woodbine 8 (9.53pm)

Claimer (C$15,000) N3b – 3-year-olds and upwards – Six and a half furlongs – Turf

Win-restricted Claimers are generally among the toughest races on a card, and I could comfortably make a case for at least five runners in this.

Souper Strider (3) won a nonwinners of two Claimer with this tag in August and then wasn’t disgraced when finishing 2¾-lengths 4th in a stronger split condition contest than this a month ago.

Go Go Alexander (5) has finished in the exacta spots in his last three races in Allowance ranks at Fort Erie, and he had form here earlier in the year that would make him competitive.

Signature Sir (6) is another who ran well when 2nd in a $25,000 Claimer with this win restriction in early August when beaten by a 7-5 favourite. However, he did blow out in the same grade at the end of that month and has been given just over seven weeks off to recover.

Pin Boy (8) has been beaten by a head into 2nd on his last two starts, both in this grade and over this trip on Tapeta.

Although INTERIM ANALYSIS (10) disappointed in this grade on his first start after taking a $10,000 Maiden Claimer, he has run well in a couple races after that, earning strong speed figures in the process.

I decided to go with the biggest-priced of them on the Morning Line in Interim Analysis (10) at 10-1. He may have run poorly on his only other start in this grade when going five and a half furlongs, but I don’t think that was a true reflection of his ability. His two subsequent efforts over stretched sprint trips have showed him in a better light, and I think he will at least outrun his ML assessment.

Selection: INTERIM ANALYSIS (10)

Belmont Park 8 (10.05pm)

Allowance Optional Claimer ($80,000) N2X or N3L – 3-year-olds and upwards – Six furlongs – Inner turf

Early last month going five and a half furlongs at Saratoga, No Evidence (6) ran in a similarly-tight contest to this one. He made a strong move on the home turn that day, taking a 1½-lengths lead into final furlong only to be nabbed in the last stride by Spiced Up, who won it by a nose at 13-2 despite the burden of being my tip. A neck behind in 3rd came the favourite Bosun (5), with Final Verdict (1) running on to finish 4th another ¾-length behind.

That confirmed the form from an entry level Allowance over the same course and distance in July, when No Evidence (6) beat Bosun (5) into 2nd place by ½-length, although the runner up got through that grade on his next start the following month.

Final Verdict (1) has become frustrating since winning his entry level Allowance just over two years ago. In his 12 races since then, 10 in this sort of grade and two in a couple of Starter Allowances, he has finished in the frame seven times. However, he has made a nice living, earning more than enough to pay his way from purse money.

HEART HEADED (9) contested a stronger split condition Allowance than this in the middle of June going five and a half furlongs at Churchill Downs. Running for sale at $100,000, having been claimed for $80,000 out of a previous race, he put in a strong, late kick to finish 4th, eventually beaten by three necks behind a trio of useful rivals. He then ran well in a couple of Black-Type Stakes, one at Horseshoe Indianapolis and the other at Saratoga, and I think he brings superior form into this than that shown by his main opponents.

Selection: HEART HEADED (9)