Constitution Hill: How will he fare at Southwell?

I’m pretty certain that you have clicked on this article having already read plenty about the matter at hand. In truth, it has been nigh-on impossible to avoid discussion surrounding CONSTITUTION HILL this term, especially since a potential Flat assignment was mentioned after he fell in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in November.

However, if you don’t know the current situation then I will offer a quick lowdown. Nicky Henderson’s star hurdler, winner of eight Grade 1 contests including the 2023 Champion Hurdle, has fallen on three of his last four starts. 

After serious debate regarding his future and, indeed, any spring targets, connections have opted to take in an All-Weather race - the SBK Road To Cheltenham Novice Stakes at 7.30 at Southwell on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing, en route to another tilt at the Champion Hurdle.

This decision has been met with a mixed response, largely surrounding the inauguration of a 1m4f novice event with significant prize-money being added to the calendar to lure him out of the shadows. It has worked - a fantastic PR ploy. Now that he is confirmed to run, here are some questions that we will look to answer…

Why is Constitution Hill running at Southwell?

First and foremost, Constitution Hill needs to have a race to build up his fitness and sharpness ahead of his seasonal target, which is the Unibet Champion Hurdle on Tuesday March 10. His sole start this season saw him get no further than the second obstacle and it will be 312 days since his last completed outing if they just rocked up to the Festival without a prep.

There have been some more obvious and conventional targets that Constitution Hill could have taken en route - the Kingwell Hurdle being just one. However, with doubts around his hurdling fluency, connections have opted for a simple Flat run to shake off the rust. 

The BHA and sponsors SBK have put up £40,000 prize-money for a 1m4f novice on a valuable evening card at Southwell to attract Constitution Hill. That is an offer that connections could not refuse. So, here we are. Constitution Hill is running on the All-Weather!

Who are Constitution Hill's main rivals on Friday?

It is a general consensus that you can translate hurdling ability to the Flat by deducting around 45lb from a horse's official rating. For example, an 80-rated runner on the Flat should be able to get to around 125 over obstacles. There are obviously plenty of other variables at play and you can have horses that overachieve or underachieve when they switch codes.

With a rating of 170 over hurdles, Constitution Hill, by this logic, should be roughly capable of running to 125 on the Flat. Now, that is highly likely to be overshooting his true ability, but even another 20lb drop-off would make him a good 105 performer. If that is accurate, there are no ‘main rivals’.

But age catches up to everyone and Constitution Hill, now a nine-year-old, needs to prove that he retains all of the ability that we saw from December 2021 to January 2025. If he doesn’t, then maybe you would look towards Dundalk maiden Square Necker, who is roughly capable of running to a mark of 90 based on previous showings.

Daddy Long Legs, who was placed in a Saint-Cloud maiden in 2022, represents Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore. While Tripoli Flyer, another jumps horse reverting to the Flat, has actually won an All-Weather bumper and is therefore proven on a similar surface. 

How will the SBK Road To Cheltenham Novice Stakes be run?

Middle-distance novice events are rarely run at breakneck gallops - don’t expect to see red sectionals on the screen during the race! Constitution Hill’s presence in the field provides a quandary for his opponents as he evidently doesn’t lack speed and stamina should not be an issue over this trip. Do they then look to exploit any rustiness? 

I’m certain a few of his foes will jump out and look to grab a good early position. Constitution Hill is not going to be the quickest away from the stalls, as proven by the video of him practicing a few weeks ago, and getting a four or five-length headstart on him may be the ploy.

Oisin Murphy, who partners the star hurdler, will look to find a rhythm early. The main goal is for Constitution Hill to have a nice blowout while potentially showing some sparkle on the Southwell Tapeta. Finishing his race off to good effect is more important than winning by a distance. Look for him to settle in midpack before being asked for effort inside the final three furlongs.

What about the Southwell draw?

A wide draw is always better than the rail on an inexperienced type - I will live and die by that theory. As a result, gate 12 is no bad thing, especially for a horse who will likely break a little slower than others.

There is around two-and-a-half to three furlongs before the first turn from the 1m4f start at Southwell, which will allow Constitution Hill and Oisin Murphy time to find their spot. If they can save ground by being one off the rail in the early stages, connections will be happy with the position.

What will we learn about Constitution Hill from this race?

Regarding his chances of winning the 2026 Champion Hurdle? Probably not - his jumping will still be the major point of concern. However, it will be nice to see this star equine talent return to the track given his truncated last 12 months, and a promising effort, whether that be a win or place, will provide some added anticipation ahead of the festival's showpiece hurdling event.

Of course, learning isn’t just done via a horse’s performance. There is also learning for the industry as a whole. For all that this card at Southwell that would have always drawn a decent student-led crowd, I’m almost certain that Constitution Hill’s presence will force onlookers to arrive from far and wide. 

Star power attracts viewers and Constitution Hill’s entry will get more eyes on the sport. That is no bad thing, especially when it comes to the next generation.