The Derby at Epsom is replete with traditions, mythologies, and icons. The Derby Walk, Tattenham Corner, the pre-race prediction written in chalk on the well of the “Amato” pub. The Suffragette Derby, Shergar, Lester Piggott. The list goes on.
In my own little way, I have developed a Derby tradition of my own, which is the ‘Pre-race Striding Blog’. This is it.
When I first started writing about striding analytics as a result of the greater availability of data - or at least of videos and software which made compiling your own data feasible - it soon became apparent that there was a strong correlation between the speed of a horse’s striding (its “cadence”) and its stamina.
Striding fast takes effort, especially as a horse’s striding works in tandem with its breathing, and it cannot be sustained for long.
Striding fast is necessary to generate speed for sprinting but becomes a handicap when a horse is tried at longer distances. The ability to relax becomes increasingly important as stamina gets tested more.
Those curves get shallower as distance increases, which makes it more difficult to discern significant differences at longer than shorter. But stepping up from 8f to 12f, or even from 10f to 12f, is enough to put a greater emphasis on relaxing to “get the trip”.
In no race is this theory more obviously put to the test than in the Derby. Contenders are often asked to do something they have never done before in distance terms, and the final furlongs of the Derby Course are littered with the sunk reputations of non-stayers.
Recent Derby winners have all had either a low maximum cadence, a low minimum cadence, or both. The hi-rev likes of Roaring Lion, Dancing Gemini and Too Darn Hot either came up short on the day or ran out of puff in a trial.
Masar, Adayar, Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy provided memorable paydays for those who kept the faith with slow - at least some of the time - striders.
Anthony Van Dyck and Golden Horn were exceptions to “the rule”, though neither by much. Further back, a few Derby winners bucked the trend more clearly, notably 2011 winner Pour Moi, who strode like a sprinter-miler: I may never entirely understand how that was possible!
With the caveat that we are dealing with probabilities rather than certainties, as we usually are in horse racing, let’s have a look at this year’s Derby cohort.
The “predicted max/min” figures are derived from those horses’ striding in recent races, with a small adjustment for any changes in distance from the past to here. A horse’s striding - quick or slow - is fixed to a large degree, but the evidence is that minor changes can occur, presumably as a result of training and riding modifications.
None of the first three in the betting for this year’s race a week or so out strides like a typical Derby winner, especially in terms of their ability to “switch off” in their slower paces (The Lion In Winter has drifted markedly since this was first written).
It should be pointed out that Dubawi, sire of Delacroix, tends to get horses who stay further than predicted by striding alone, but also that Delacroix’s win last time came in a slowly-run affair that tested pace far more than stamina.
The Dante winner Pride Of Arras is the best fit of those fairly close up in the betting, while the Chester Vase winner Lambourn is the best fit of all, but with a bit more to prove.
Cases could be made for the likes of Damysus (more so in terms of his minimum than his maximum cadence), Stanhope Gardens and Nightwalker, but they would be borderline.
There is a notion that the Derby can be won by a non-stayer, but it is worth remembering that the downhill closing stages are preceded by a first half-mile which rises more than any other in British (and possibly world) racing, by about 40 metres/131 feet.
Lightning-fast surfaces are mostly a thing of the past, but suspect-stayer-aiding paces still happen occasionally.
The original market leaders in the Derby look vulnerable. According to what is now a tried-and-trusted approach, PRIDE OF ARRAS and LAMBOURN are the best candidates with which to take them on.
The same analytics can be applied to the previous day’s Oaks (also sponsored by Betfred), but context is rather scantier. Most of the historical data for the Derby above is as the result of poring over videos - some of them from a long time ago.
Nonetheless, the same principles apply, though the fillies’ race tends to have smaller fields and less strength in depth, so stamina may not be quite as paramount.
The last two Oaks - which are the only ones for which we have electronic striding data - were won by Ezeliya, with 2.37 max/2.13 min, and Soul Sister, with a more 12f-typical 2.24/2.07.
The 1000 Guineas winner and current Oaks favourite Desert Flower has questions to answer on striding/stamina grounds, if not to the same degree as the market leaders in the Derby itself.
Minnie Hauk and Giselle tick the “relax” box, but are they good enough to take advantage?
Both won Listed Oaks trials from limited opposition, but Giselle’s victory at Lingfield had a much bigger upside in sectional terms than Minnie Hauk’s at Chester, the way I look at it. A detailed sectional and striding breakdown of both those races can be found in the ‘Results’ section on this site.
GISELLE ran to a rating of about 99 that day but did so in the style of a 110-rated filly, and that has been good enough to go close in the majority of recent editions of the fillies’ race, so she will do for me.
