While Cheltenham is all over for another year, there are plenty of festivals for National Hunt Racing fans to look forward to between now and the end of the season. In Ireland, Fairyhouse hosts the Irish Grand National meeting (before Aintree this year), while there is also the end of season extravaganza that is the Punchestown festival.
In terms of British racing, there is certainly plenty left to play for too, with the Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr and the season finale at Sandown, among others. The highlight though is, without doubt, the Aintree Grand National meeting and finding profitable angles at that meeting is the purpose of this column.
The recent Cheltenham feature had varying degrees of success. The angle of Ben Pauling’s handicap chasers produced Meetmebythesea, an impressive winner of the Jack Richards Novice Handicap, while Henry De Bromhead’s mare Air Of Entitlement was another winner for the profitable angle of following the stable’s equine females.
Aintree can be a little more difficult in terms of solid angles, but hopefully those below can help readers find a winner or two throughout the week.
Irish Angles worth following at Aintree
Before I get any comments thrown at me on social media for being biased (or even worse than that), can I just make myself clear that although I’m obviously Irish, it really doesn’t bother me where horses are trained. I simply care about picking the right one and the positive impact that (hopefully) has on my bank balance!
I was saying all season that I felt the Irish domination of recent years was in jeopardy and that was proven to be accurate at the festival, on the bare numbers at least. It was certainly a step in the right direction as far as British racing is concerned, but the dominance in the Graded contests is still a huge factor, even if Willie Mullins was largely responsible for that.
Anyway, this is about future success. So, what are the Irish angles at this meeting that have proven profitable? I have found two, although horses may meet the criteria for both in some instances.
The first of those is linked to the recent example at the Cheltenham festival. Irish trained horses have won their fair share of Graded races at this meeting too, despite not always being represented by their “A” team. Those that have been sent off favourite in their respective contests have proven particularly profitable to follow.
Since 2021, Irish-trained favourites in the Graded contests have an excellent strike-rate of 48.4%. That has translated into a profit to level-stakes at SP of £10.22 and a return on investment of 33%. While that isn’t necessarily anything to go wild about, the underlying numbers suggest this is a developing trend worth following.
Firstly, the majority of that profit has been realised over the last two Aintree festivals. Eight winners from twelve qualifiers at the last two meetings have resulted in a profit of £9.64 to a £1 stake at SP. Those eight winners had an expected figure of just 4.35 too.
The Irish Graded contest favourites have an Actual/Expected ratio of 1.385 times (anything greater than 1 is a positive) overall since 2021, and actual has exceeded expected at four out of the five festivals individually. The only recent festival where the actual winners was less than the expected was 2022, when Pied Piper’s demotion was the deciding factor.
The second punting edge may have fewer qualifiers now given the number of Irish runners at this meeting. This has certainly been the case in the last couple of years, but I’m going to include it on the basis that it has been very profitable in the last five years.
When there is only one Irish-trained runner in a race at this meeting, backing them to level stakes would have produced a profit of £40.50 at Industry SP since 2021. This angle has been responsible for five winners from just sixteen qualifiers, a very impressive strike-rate of 31.25%.
Furthermore, given some of these have been bigger prices as one would guess based on the profit figure, these sixteen runners only had an expected wins figure of 2.77. It could be worth paying particular attention to those seemingly unwanted by the market as winners have been priced as big as 22/1, with a 14/1 winner also included.
Skelton handicap success expected to continue
People have differing opinions about Dan Skelton’s methods, and I think it often comes down to which side of the result people end up on. That is for another day, but this column is factually based and his results in handicap hurdles at this meeting in recent years are just too good to be ignored.
I mentioned this record a couple of years ago in a tipping column on this site as it led me to Kateira, who duly obliged. Unfortunately, when I tried to follow up with West Balboa the following day, it was her stablemate Gwennie May Boy that won (landing a gamble in the process). As there have only been fifteen handicap hurdles since 2021 at this meeting, winning five of them is an incredible feat.
Admittedly, he often throws a couple of darts, but he has still hit the bullseye at an impressive 20.8%. The profit from his twenty-four handicap hurdle runners is a noteworthy £43.33 to a £1 stake at BSP, producing a massive ROI of 180.5%.
He drew a blank from four runners in handicap hurdles in 2021, but a couple of them were huge prices and clearly given little chance of success. Since then, he is five winners from twenty runners though, winning at least one of the three handicap hurdles each year and he has won each race at least once in that period.
Skelton had struggled a little in the two-mile handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys’ and amateur riders prior to last year but set that record straight with a 25/1 winner in the shape of She’s A Saint, ridden by Tristan Durrell. The yard can probably be backed blind in the handicap hurdles at this meeting.
On the pace a major plus in the handicap chases
We saw the importance of being close to the pace at the Cheltenham festival recently and I think it is becoming a hugely important factor across jump racing in general. Aintree, especially the chase course, is another example where it can be hard to peg one back and the handicap chases at this meeting have highlighted this in recent years.
I tend to make this point quite regularly, but it continues to be profitable. Last year, I focused on all prominent runners across the handicap chases (excluding the National), taking the first quarter of the field. Sans Bruit won the Red Rum, but they hit the crossbar in the other races, with a pair of seconds in the Topham and the three-mile handicap chase.
I realise that covering all of those is not advisable and this year I’m going to revert back to focusing on the front-runners, who have a remarkable record in isolation. In the fifteen handicap chases since 2021 excluding the National, five horses have made most or all the running.
If one could have identified the early leader (and that is easier said than done at times), they could have realised a profit of £34.70 to a £1 win stake at BSP from the fifteen selections. That is a very impressive ROI of 231.3% and the expected wins figure based on Industry SP was just 1.36.
They are clearly outperforming market expectations. However, I don’t think that expected wins figure would be anywhere near as low after a couple of fences when they are in front, so it is very important to either identify the front-runner in advance or be very quick in-running! However, on the plus side, prominent runners in general still hold an advantage.
*Front-runners are judged as the horse leading after the second fence once race has settled down.
Lacey’s runners worth a second look in the handicaps
I always like to highlight one of the so-called smaller yards that excel at these meetings too. I’ve mentioned Stuart Edmunds previously, but it is certainly worth noting Tom Lacey’s runners, especially in the handicaps.
Cruz Control won the three-mile handicap chase for the second year in a row last year and while that has been beneficial to his numbers here, his overall record is good in recent years. They tend to run well here and seven of his thirteen runners in handicaps have finished in the first five, with extra places generally available in most of these contests.
At standard terms, backing all of his handicap runners here since 2021 would have returned a profit of £30.80 to a £1 each-way stake at BSP. That is a very nice return and one would have received a pay out on six of those thirteen runners individually.
If one was to confine the search to just his runners over three miles plus, that profit figure would rise to £38.80 and the form figures would read P23P40211. That is impressive considering the average SP of those nine runners was over 16/1!
