Hugh Taylor

In his latest piece for attheraces.com, Hugh Taylor highlights trainers who may be worth following once Flat racing in the UK starts, nominating those with good records with horses after 100+ day’s absence.

  • Saturday 04 April
  • Blog
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When racing finally resumes, punters are going to face an immediate problem when trying to find winners. As well as the usual situation at this time of year of Flat horses returning from an absence, all trainers will have had an enforced break to deal with too.

It’s worthwhile, then, looking at those trainers with good records with horses returning from a fairly long absence. I wanted to look away from the obvious – John Gosden, for instance, has a strike rate of almost 30% with horses returning from an absence of 100+ days over the last five years, but his ability is relatively factored into his runners’ odds, even though his actual over expected winners is a shade above 1, indicating he still has slightly more winners with such horses than their SPs would predict.

I’m more interested in those trainers whose record with horses returning from an absence is better than might be expected from their overall record. I think I’ve found nine trainers who fit the bill, and all are worth keeping an eye on when racing returns.

All the data below refers to Flat racing over the 5-year period from March 2015 to March 2020. The actual over expected (A/E) refers to the number of winners compared with those predicted by Betfair SP.

PETER CHARALAMBOUS

Overall strike rate: 12.9%

Strike rate after 100+ days’ absence: 26% (5 wins from 19 runs).

A/E: 3.73

SP: +95pts

Betfair SP: +148pts

Notes:  Winners include Theydon Bois 50-1 Newmarket May 2015, and Intrepidly 33-1 Kempton February 2020.

JANE CHAPPLE-HYAM

Overall strike rate: 10.6%

Strike rate after 100+ days’ absence: 18.1% (13 wins from 72 runs)

A/E: 2.6

SP: + 58pts

Betfair SP: +86pts

Notes: Two of the winners came after absences of over 400 days. 7 of the 13 winners were having their first start for the stable, and nine (from just 33 runners) came at 1m2f+.

STEVE GOLLINGS

Overall strike rate: 13.7%

Strike rate after 100+ days’ absence: 21.9% (7 wins from 32 runners)

A/E: 2.46

SP: + 25pts

Betfair SP: +40pts

Notes: All seven wins came at between 1m4f and 2m.

PAM SLY

Overall strike rate: 12.4%

Strike rate after 100+ days’ absence: 16.7% (6 wins from 36 runners)

A/E: 1.86

SP: + 48pts

Betfair SP: +68pts

Notes: Sly also has an outstanding record in the same circumstances over jumps (9-33, +75pts).

JONNY PORTMAN

Overall strike rate: 10.1%

Strike rate after 100+ days’ absence: 13.2% (16 wins from 121 runs)

A/E: 1.83

SP: +47pts

Betfair SP: +67pts

Notes: All 16 wins described above came between late February and late May, in other words on a traditional seasonal reappearance, rather than after a mid-season break.

MARJORIE FIFE

Overall strike rate: 7.5%

Strike rate after 100+ days’ absence: 9.9% (8-81)

A/E: 1.83

SP: +24pts

Betfair SP: +43pts

Notes: Especially worth noting with veterans; five of the eight winners were 8yo or older, and only one was younger than 5.

STUART KITTOW

Overall strike rate: 9.1%

Strike rate after 100+ days’ absence: 14.8% (12 wins from 81 runs) A/E: 1.82

SP: +21.5

Betfair SP: +33pts

Notes: Kittow has a longstanding record of being one to watch with seasonal debutants in the spring, and 9 of the 12 winners above came in the month of April.

MARTYN MEADE

Overall strike rate: 14.6%

Strike rate after 100+ days’ absence: 24.7% (20-81) A/E: 1.27

SP: +35pts

Betfair SP: +47pts

Notes: Meade’s strike rate improves further if the criteria is pushed up to 150+ days’ absence – 15 winners from 55 runners (27.3%).

GEORGE SCOTT

Overall strike rate: 12.6%

Strike rate after 100+ days’ absence: 17.2% (11 winners from 64 runners)

A/E: 1.55

SP: +25pts

Betfair SP: +52pts

Notes: All 11 winners came at up to 1m.

 

Hugh Taylor
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