Jamie Lynch

Decisions, decisions. If Allaho went for the RSA, I’d be swerving him, but if he waited for the shorter-distance Marsh I’d be all over him. I’m not sure he’d outstay his RSA rivals, but I’d back him to out-gallop Itchy Feet and co on the Thursday, given what he did over that sort of trip at Fairyhouse last time, which was visually the most impressive performance by any novice chaser in Britain and Ireland this season, and it also looked very good on the clock. He’s a Grade 1-class chaser, no doubt about it, but which way he goes will determine which way I go.

Regards the Supreme, it’s impossible to talk about one Joe Donnelly-owned horse without the other: the yellow-and-black-checked twin turbos of Shishkin and Asterion Forlonges. The last time we had two such talented team-mates in the Supreme was when My Tent Or Yours and Jezki were outpointed by Champagne Fever in 2013. That day, My Tent Or Yours was clearly JP’s number one (15/8 favourite), whereas it’s harder to separate these two, at least in the market, but as far as form goes Asterion Forlonges has achieved the more: much more in fact. It’s hard to quantify Shishkin’s scope, but it’s easy to say Asterion Forlonges ought to be favourite.

Notebook has one hoof on the Arkle after dominating the division in Ireland all season, but we’ve yet to see the best of the British, because we haven’t seen Brewin’upatorm since November. The time during which he completed his first phase over fences is critical chance in an Arkle, because it came in a spell when, apart from him, the stable had just two other winners from 50 runners. It’s not only when his chasing career got underway but also how and who he beat, namely Good Boy Bobby, Midnight Shadow and Global Citizen at Carlisle. He ran very well at last year’s Festival (fourth in Ballymore) and has purposely been prepared at home rather than on the track, given his record when fresh, successful first time out in each of his three seasons.

The attention in the Supreme is focused on a few, not a recency bias as such, but those who’ve done their development work earlier in the season tend to take a back seat, sometimes unfairly, as seems the case with He boasts some of the best novice form in Britain, beating Fiddlerontheroof at Wincanton and Harry Senior at Aintree, which took some doing in retrospect, and it’s not hard to forgive him succumbing late Stolen Silver on Haydock ground last time out. He’s a lively longer-shot in the Supreme, the demands of the race promising to suit him well.

Whenever an odds-on favourite scrambles home, the go-to word for predictable pundits like me is ‘workmanlike’, a polite way of saying unimpressive. We’ve hijacked the word ‘workmanlike’ and almost redefined its original meaning of efficient and well-executed. Envoi Allen is the very (proper) definition of workmanlike. He’s not flashy, he’s never produced a ‘wow’ moment, and his average winning distance is just 3 lengths, but he’s workmanlike in the extreme, efficient and clinical in his execution, no saying how much is still in the tank. Wokmanlike win number eight is odds-on, or it should be.

It says a lot about Latest Exhibition that he had the speed to chase home Abacadabras in a Grade 3 over 2m at Navan in November, because it’s been clear ever since that he’s a stayer, and a very good one at that, successful in the 2¾m Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. Another quarter mile for the Albert Bartlett should be right up his street, and his rating is close to that of the best of the British, Thyme Hill. The market forces behind Monkfish reveal his high regard, and all in all this looks one of the better renewals of the race, but Latest Exhibition goes with great momentum.

He’s the lightest on chasing experience out of the principal players in the RSA, yet we know from his hurdling record just how robust Minella Indo is, winning the Albert Bartlett (at 50/1) at last year’s Festival and following up at Punchestown (from Allaho). He had to roll up his sleeves to get the job done in a mere novice chase at Navan in January, but that was always just a means to an end, the end game of Cheltenham, plus the performance looks rather better in light of the second (Captain CJ) subsequently winning the Grade 2 Ten Up Chase. The luxury ingredients are all there, ready for another Minella mix in time for Cheltenham like in 2019.

Willie Mullins has won all four editions of the Dawn Run, the first three with odds-on favourites and then last year with a 50/1 shot, though Honeysuckle would surely have ended the Mullins monopoly but for a late setback that forced her to miss the Festival. But the owner and trainer could very well put right that wrong this year with Minella Melody. Unbeaten over hurdles, she won the Solerina at Fairyhouse, which Honeysuckle (and Laurina and Limini) had before her, and Minella Melody is demonstrably the divisional leader, deserving to be more like 2/1 for the mares’ novice, considering Lamarckise is next in because of who trains her rather than what she’s done.

The injury to Champagne Classic seems to have swung Ravenhill towards the National Hunt Chase (rather than the Kim Muir) as a super-sub for Gordon Elliott, and it makes perfect sense, more so given that Carefully Selected is a favourite with flaws, specifically his jumping. A latecomer to chasing, Ravenhill did his development work through last summer, culminating with a fine second to Poker Party in the Kerry National. He subsequently tipped up in the Troytown, but that’s unlike him, as hitherto his jumping had been an asset, while it’s an Achilles’ heel for Carefully Selected. Ravenhill has always looked a marathon runner, and the NH Chase gives him the chance to prove it.

He hasn’t set the world alight as yet over hurdles, but Sempo is heading in the right direction, and his form looks better now than at the time, notably when he split Cobbler’s Way and The Big Getaway at Leopardstown over Christmas, after which he got off the mark in style when upped in trip at Thurles. Underpinning his hurdling development is the memory of last year’s Champion Bumper in which he finished sixth, in and around Thyme Hill and Abacadabras, and you can bet that he’ll have been primed for the Festival again, trained by Joseph O’Brien, who already has a track record. He’s in the Coral Cup as well as the longer-distance novices.