After some back and forth it appears – for now – that they will be running at Fair Grounds on Saturday, which means the Louisiana Derby is a go. How much of a key prep it will be for the Kentucky Derby remains to be seen now that the fabled Run for the Roses has moved to September but it’s still an interesting betting race.
The most likely winner is ENFORCEABLE. He’s coming off of a disadvantageous pace scenario in his division of the Risen Star and should get plenty of pace to run at here. He’s been training well and is difficult to see out of the frame.
He’s got the best numbers and should get a great trip. The only question will be price. He should be about 5-2 so would be a definite bet at 7-2 if any of that is still around when you read this.
Another way to possibly go is Silver State. Similarly compromised by pace last time, also working in a way that suggests a forward move. And his stablemate Chestertown is also worth keeping an eye on – according to an insider account, he worked even better than his stablemate in their recent in company gallop.
Silver State should still be a shorter price based on form, perhaps 6-1, but Chestertown interesting if he drifts to a high enough number. He should probably be around 9-1.
As always, let the odds be your guide, but this is a case where I most likely see betting whichever of the horses listed above offers the most value relative to what their prices should be, or perhaps even betting two of the three if the value is there.
I could see playing a reverse forecast covering all possible combinations of them.