Kentucky Derby Countdown

Live on Sky Sports Racing, the Florida Derby takes center stage on this week's Kentucky Derby countdown, and as ever, our man Stateside Peter Fornatale shares his thoughts.

  • Saturday 28 March
  • Blog
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This year’s Florida Derby (22:36) takes on added importance as it may end up being the lone Grade 1 run for three-year-olds this Spring. Hopefully that will not be the case but the recent closings (at least for now) of Aqueduct and Santa Anita, it could prove true.  

I am a big fan of TIZ THE LAW, and have been ever since his maiden win in Saratoga last summer. The New York-bred was very impressive in victory last time, despite a ride that was questioned by many.  

He scored a strong time figure despite the trouble he encountered and looked like more ground will suit him. He’s worked well five times since and should be sitting on a career best. At even money or better, he’s the play for me.  

Should he be odds-on by the time you read this, the other I’m interested in a little bit is INDEPENDENCE HALL, who recorded the highest speed figure of his generation as a two-year-old.  

The race last time was better than it looked – he attacked a hot pace and still hung on for second in a race where the other speed was nowhere. Sole Volante has since franked the form with a good second in the Tampa Bay Derby.  

I would want at least 6-1 on him but he does look like an interesting possible alternative at a price.  

Two others to watch in here include Todd Pletcher’s Gouverneur Morris, an easy winner last out who looks to have more improvement to come, and Ete Indien. The latter gave Tiz The Law a boost when winning the Fountain of Youth in front-running fashion, and similar tactics will be used again here.  

On a fair track, I don’t see how he finds the lengths he needs to beat Tiz The Law, but he will very likely be in front as they make the turn for home, and that alone makes him worthy of consideration to some degree.  

I hope to keep it simple and just bet Tiz The Law, odds permitting of course.

Kentucky Derby Countdown
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