Peter Fornatale's Breeders' Cup Diary

It's Breeders' Cup Saturday - live on Sky Sports Racing - and Peter Fornatale returns with his final diary, marking your card for Saturday evening's top-class racing.

  • Saturday 07 November
  • Blog
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This will be my briefest diary of the week but it also might be my most important as I’ll go through final selections for Breeders’ Cup Saturday but before we get to that let’s talk about what we learned on Breeders’ Cup Friday.  

The rail appears to be very good on the dirt track. I was worried it wouldn’t be, and this is significant enough that I think it may change the way certain races are run if the riders become conscious of this. We shall see.  

We have some interesting tote market information now from the Double pools connecting Friday races to Saturday races. Horseplayer Marshall Gramm has done the calculations to let us know the imputed odds from the Double for the Classic, the Turf, and the Distaff. You can view his tweet with all the information here.  

The most significant thing I’m seeing as that Tom’s d’Etat is the favorite at 5-2, with Improbable and Tiz the Law in behind at 7-2. This may inform how you want to play the Classic – if you agree with me about Tom, take the price now.  

Watch the 2020 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Friday 6th and Saturday 7th November.

FM Sprint (5:02): SPEECH and SERENGETI EMPRESS are the two I want against the field. I am less worried about the rail than I was before for Speech. Serengeti’s job may be a little more difficult now with Gamine to the inside but I’m still leaving her in the mix.  

Turf Sprint (5:39): Sticking with GOT STORMY and IMPRIMIS, with preference for the former.  

Dirt Mile (6:18): KNICKS GO is the one best suited to the task and the barn is flying.  

FM Turf (6:57): The O’Briens ran well yesterday and I expect Terebellum will too. I am going to add MEAN MARY into the mix if she’s 9-2 or higher.  

Sprint (7:36): May be my smallest opinion on the day but the track will suit YAUPON I think. Worth using at 2-1 or higher. Still have interest in C Z ROCKET as well. Will try to play both against the field, small.  

Mile (8:15): Another tricky one especially with money coming for previously advised each-way fancy Lope Y Fernandez. SISKIN still is plenty interesting if he can behave himself. One additional note: if Brad Cox wins with Knicks Go, I might consider Factor This here at a big price as Cox tries to do his best Richard Mandella impression.  

Distaff (8:54): I still like CE CE – rail draw could be a blessing now and she’s a big price. With Monomoy Girl there is conflicting signal – Cox barn form is a huge plus but the post could be a hindrance now. At even money or so, I’ll keep my hand in my pocket. At 6-4, I’d probably bet small to at least cover the stake on the Ce Ce bet.  

Turf (9:33): TARNAWA looks good to me at 7-2. I’ll play an all-Irish reverse forecast with her, MAGICAL and MOGUL as well. Might as well do a small tricast too.  

Classic (10:18): TOM'S D'ETAT and TIZ THE LAW for me – I may do something a little goofy and play the three Baffert runners over them in forecasts as well as an additional saver: 8-9-10 over 3-4.  

Godspeed everyone. May you win all your Breeders’ Cup photos!

Peter Fornatale's Breeders' Cup Diary
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