The final pieces of the two-year-old jigsaw are falling into place, with only this week’s Breeders’ Cup in Kentucky of real significance still to come.

Europe’s concluding Group 1s for the age-group – one at Doncaster and two at Saint-Cloud – produced winners of varying merit. Best of the lot was Giant Sequoia in the William Hill Futurity on the former course, to the extent that he now looks a live contender for next year’s Classics, especially The Derby at Epsom.

Here are what the numbers say about that trio of weekend races.  

Of the three winners, Giant Sequoia put the biggest margins between himself and second, third, fourth and fifth, while the Futurity is the race of the three in which precedent suggests we should expect the strongest form in any case.

After allowing for field-size, margins, times and sectionals, prior achievements of the principals, and so on, Giant Sequoia comes out as a superior winner of the Futurity, behind only Auguste Rodin among recent winners and alongside him once sectionals have been factored in. Auguste Rodin went onto win the Derby in 2023, of course.

Meanwhile, Master Man’s win in the Criterium International at a similar trip came in a bunched finish and with him getting the run of things slightly, while Drumbeat’s more convincing success in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud is worth about 113 on bare form but more than that in view of his sectionals.

The second to Drumbeat, Shakespeare, was paced more efficiently than the two he split but looks to have improved by several pounds even so, as runners-up in this race typically do. Third-placed Jesus Green gets a boost for his sectionals – especially a 11.35s penultimate one – but seemed to run out of stamina right at the death. 

A note on the going at Saint-Cloud, which was returned as “collant” but was not “heavy” in British parlance as might be imagined. Drumbeat’s time was the fastest in the race on record, while Master Man’s was the second-fastest for his race.

The latter’s 101.76s for the metric mile, on a track that gains 11m in elevation from start to finish, is indicative of “good to soft” going on the whole in British terms. Saint-Cloud was not a slogfest on Sunday, despite what you might read.

Doncaster had been objectively softer the day before – Giant Sequoia ran 102.30s for 10 yards further but on a track which rises by only 1m – yet fell just short of “heavy” itself. In that context, Giant Sequoia’s turn of foot to come from last to first in a race with a steady middle section was especially striking.

He ran 11.58s for the penultimate 1f, which all but matched the speed shown at the same stage by the smart sprinters Al Shabab Storm and Bengal Tiger elsewhere on the Doncaster card.

Giant Sequoia may have the pace for next year’s Guineas, especially if it is run on ground similar to this, but appeals even more as a Derby prospect to me.

Besides anything else, his cadence (2.33 strides/second maximum, 2.14 minimum) was easily the most relaxed of the principals in Saturday’s race and is almost bang on what could be expected of a leading Derby contender at this stage (see my blog of a fortnight ago).

I have risked a few quid on Giant Sequoia at 12/1 for next year’s Derby (Drumbeat looks more of a Leger horse to me). Flat-racing fans need something to get them through the long months of winter, after all!

Entrust is at around the same odds for Epsom’s blue riband, having won a novice  at Doncaster the day before the Futurity, worth a bare rating of 96 (based on pedigree and prior-rating standards as no race standards exist) and a sectional uplift to 100.

Indeed, that has been surpassed as a debut by a two-year-old in Britain by only Sharadd at Haydock (98+7) and Benjamin Hornigold at York (100+1) on my ratings this season.

Entrust is, of course, a son of the legendary Enable so could not be better bred for a place at racing’s top table. He is also a May foal, so should have been at a disadvantage against his more mature peers. A reminder, by the way, that Enable herself did not debut until the November of her juvenile year.

All that said, Entrust was winning a novice, not a Group 1, and showed only a fraction of Giant Sequoia’s speed 24 hours later (when the ground was only slightly less testing judged on times). Nice start: let’s see how he goes from here.        

Quickfire Breeders' Cup 2026 thoughts

There is a whole lot to get stuck into with the Breeders’ Cup this coming weekend, and not enough space in this blog to do everything justice in detail.

To keep it manageable, I decided to tackle each race from the point of view of whether I was looking to be “With”, “Against” or “Neutral” regarding the forecast favorite, plus other thoughts where relevant.

To assist me in my calculations, I have referred to free Equineline NARC ratings (class-based and more or less on the BHA scale once weight-for-age has been allowed for), past World’s Best Racehorse Rankings, and, of course, At The Races’ own excellent Results Service, featuring video replays and comprehensive sectionals and striding.

JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (18:55 GMT, Friday)

LIBERTANGO (rated 117) faces stronger opposition from her fellow raiders than from a weak home team and I am WITH her.

JUVENILE FILLIES (19:35 GMT, Friday)

I would have Emphatic (119) as favourite over MISS MONICA (112) and am AGAINST the latter as a result.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (20:15 GMT, Friday)

SUN GODDESS (124) is very good, tough and adaptable but I am NEUTRAL at odds on with 116-rated Amusingly among her rivals.

JUVENILE (20:55 GMT, Friday)

I backed HUGHES (123) at 6/1 before 121-rated U.S.S. Valor dropped out and am happy with that, but am NEUTRAL at his current odds.

JUVENILE TURF (21:35 GMT, Friday)

GREAT BARRIER REEF (111) should not be favorite over 124-rated Folsom Blues if that one is on song. It’s an AGAINST the former for me.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT (17:10 GMT, Saturday)

WAYS AND MEANS (120) is comfortably best on recent form and just about a WITH at around 2/1 at the time of writing.

TURF SPRINT (17:46 GMT, Saturday)

BACIO (119) made European sprinters look slow (not hard) but is very short and I am AGAINST especially if Shisospicy is back to her best.

DIRT MILE (18:26 GMT, Saturday)

A weak renewal, but there is just enough opposition to new favourite FURTHER ADO (115) to be AGAINST for all the shorter trip may suit.

FILLY & MARE TURF (19:04 GMT, Saturday)

BLUE BOLT (118) has the best form but is up in trip and has been on the go since May. A NEUTRAL for me in the circumstances.

SPRINT (19:42 GMT, Saturday)

ENGLISHMAN (126) may be the best horse on show all night and even at slight odds-on I am WITH this sprinting phenomenon.

MILE (20:20 GMT, Saturday)

Short odds and the need for a canny ride are the reasons I am NEUTRAL about the class act NOTABLE SPEECH (124) rather than with him.

DISTAFF (20:58 GMT, Saturday)

NITROGEN (122) has developed into a world-class mare and should have too much for her smart rivals. Evens is a good price. WITH.

TURF (21:36 GMT, Saturday)

I am AGAINST the estimable DIAMOND NECKLACE (119) at a short price and fancy Benvenuto Cellini (121) to finish much closer than in the Arc.

CLASSIC (22:16 GMT, Saturday)

FOREVER YOUNG (123) is a global star but beat little last time and arguably should be no shorter than the talented if fragile Sovereignty (128) and 124-rated Magnitude (who beat Forever Young in the Dubai World Cup). AGAINST.