Festival Edges: Boodles May Festival

I always feel that the first few weeks of the Flat season are a little bit like a refresher training course. There is enough National Hunt action to satisfy any betting urges, and the Flat racing is more about observation and learning. The Guineas meeting is when it really commences for me from a betting viewpoint, and Chester is hot on its heels.

For any new readers, the aim of this column is to look at these festivals and search for angles that relate not only to the track, but to this particular meeting over the last five years. Obviously, the column (like anything in this wonderful pursuit) is not bulletproof, and some are more successful than others.

It is more of a guide on angles to look out for and while profitability is desired. As always, selectivity is advised. They are best used as a starting point, rather than a definitive steer. Hopefully, they will lead readers in the right direction over the three days of the Boodles May Festival at Chester.

Watch out for King's select team

Alan King doesn’t have many runners at this meeting in recent years, but that hasn’t stopped him having winners. The dual-purpose trainer has a quite remarkable record at the Boodles May festival as he has enjoyed three winners and two places from nine runners since 2021. They have resulted in a level stakes profit to a £1 stake at BSP of £27 for win only, increasing to a £31.63 for win and place.

Those figures are impressive in their own right, but the underlying numbers enhance them further. An average price of 8/1 and an expected wins figure of 1.54 from those nine confirms the theory that they are performing above expectations. I appreciate it is a very small sample size but if extending beyond the five years to make the sample bigger, it still makes for attractive reading.

His runners in the apprentice handicap over a mile-and-a-half must be taken seriously. The form figures of his three runners in that contest in the last five years read 115, including a 20/1 winner! 

Moore of the same for favourite backers?

I mentioned this angle in the column a couple of years ago, while I have also previously included other variations of following the powerful Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien combination at this meeting.

Ryan Moore has certainly been a punter’s favourite at this meeting, no pun intended. His record when partnering market leaders (SP) at the Chester May Festival in recent years is quite remarkable and certainly worth paying attention to. This is not only because of the profitability, but also the frequency of returns through the phenomenal strike-rate.

Since 2021, Ryan has ridden 25 favourites at this festival and an incredible 17 of those won. While they each individually had the highest percentage chance of winning their race, that 68% strike rate is still very high. To put it into statistical context, the expected wins figure was just over ten (10.13), meaning the actual expected ratio is an impressive 1.68 times.

There was profit to be gained from supporting them too, both individually in terms of each year and collectively over the course of the last five Boodles May festivals. The five profitable years combined for a total profit of backing all his favourites at SP to a £1 level stake of £16.49 at Industry SP.

As one would expect given the nature of this angle, they haven’t returned huge profits in any of the individual years, but a 66% ROI is perfectly acceptable for what is a low-risk investment model. When it comes to the idiosyncrasies of Chester, there is simply nobody better than Ryan Moore in the saddle.

Bell’s runners on an upward trend

While the Ryan Moore angle is one that many may have been aware of (even if they didn’t have the numbers behind it), Michael Bell’s record here could be less well known. I noted him in my own research last year as one to watch, and this year he makes the column after another profitable May festival in 2025.

That means his runners have now shown a profit in each of the last three festivals. What is interesting is that he seems to be targeting the meeting more in the last couple of years, possible down to the fact that his horses seem to run well here. Last year, he ran five horses at this meeting, almost matching the six he ran in the previous four festivals combined.

That could easily be just a coincidence given it is only one year, but I thought it was worth noting all the same. Those 11 runners since 2021 have produced three winners, with Bell having one in each of the last three festivals.

Those three winners have resulted in a level stakes profit at BSP of £53.93 and I don’t think the market have adjusted for his record here yet. His runners in handicaps are particularly interesting, with form figures of 130801 and if one was to exclude the feature Chester Cup handicap those figures would read even better as 1381. 

And the early season winners are…

As I have mentioned previously, I tend to place added emphasis on stable form both at the start and end of a season. Before I proceed, I should highlight the fact that I am writing this a week in advance of the festival, and the picture could look very different after the Guineas meeting. So, (as of now) which yards have hit the ground running for the flat season in 2026?

John and Thady Gosden are probably top of the list. They were quick into stride and are running at an impressive 36.36% strike-rate on turf over the last fortnight thanks to twelve winners. That compares favourably to their average over the last year of 21.78%.

James Fanshawe has his team in rude health, producing five winners and five places from eighteen runners in the last two weeks. That win percentage reads well in comparison to the 13.17% over the past year.

Archie Watson is going well in the early weeks of the season, too. He is operating at 31.25% from his sixteen runners on turf, with 50% of his runners hitting the frame. That is much better than his average on grass over the last year of 11.03%.

Finally, Ed Walker’s team are really motoring with five winners in the last eight days at time of writing, including some nice prices, too. They are operating at 25% on turf from twenty runners in the last two weeks and a level stakes profit of £16.75 to a £1 stake.

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