By Paul Jones

There will be no Godolphin representation in the Derby (or the Oaks for that matter) this season which increases the chances of Aidan O’Brien sending out a record-extending twelfth winner of the premier Classic. So too does the fact that there will be no representatives from the 2000 Guineas to take on his contenders that ran in the recognised Derby trials over 1m2f+.

O’Brien has seven entries left in at the five-day stage and has won the Derby with a fourth string (Serpentine in 2020 under Emmet McNamara) and even a fifth string (Wings Of Eagles under Padraig Beggy) according to the betting, so it has certainly not always been the main hopes that have come out on top.

Last season’s Chester Vase 1-2 occupied those positions throughout the whole of last season’s Derby with Lambourn becoming the fourth winner to make all, or virtually all, in the last 40 years. He followed Slip Anchor, Reference Point and Serpentine after Wayne Lordan put his guaranteed stamina to best use.   Since Henbit and Shergar won back-to-back Derby’s in 1980 and 1981, only one Chester Vase winner, Ruler Of The World, had followed up at Epsom before Lambourn. Though, Wings Of Eagles (2017) went one place better on the Downs than the Roodee, as did Quest For Fame (1990). It has been a better St Leger guide this century (unsurprisingly, as being run over 1m4½f, it takes place over a furlong further than any other Derby trial) so we know stamina is assured.

Being guaranteed to stay every yard is what this year’s Chester Vase winner, Benvenuto Cellini, has as a chief weapon having lengthened 4½ lengths clear of his stablemate, Proposition, from rounding the home bend. He is set to start clear favourite for team Ballydoyle.

Favourites have only notched up a couple of successes in the decade since Golden Horn’s victory in 2015 and four of the last eight winners returned at an SP of 16-1+. Two big outsiders hit the frame last season, and, in all, we have witnessed five horses since 1989 to be placed at triple-figure odds. In fact, 12 have been placed at 50-1 since then.

The Dante has proven to be the ideal prep race for 11 Derby winners since it was established in 1958 (as many as eight of those going back to Reference Point in 1987, making it the most significant trial in more recent runnings).

Therefore, it is no surprise to see Item as a leading fancy after he beat the O’Brien pair of Action and Christmas Day with plenty to spare on just his third start. Only Workforce (2010) has gone on to win the Derby for horses beaten in the Dante.

As such, the Andrew Balding-trained challenger will be attempting to emulate Desert Crown (2022) who was also having just his third career start at Epsom and, going back to the latter end of the last century, both Lammtarra (1995) and Shaamit (1996) won the Derby on just their second start and as seasonal debuts. The least-experienced horse in this season’s running is set to be the twice-raced Rebel Rocker who finished second in the Blue Riband Trial at the Epsom April Meeting.

Just three Derby winners this century were having their sixth start or more. That stat would be against the O’Brien sextet of Benvenuto Cellini, Pierre Bonnard, Action, Christmas Day, Causeway and Endorsement. In fact, the only one of his seven possible runners with less than five career runs is Proposition.

The Lingfield Derby Trial was Luca Cumani’s favoured route to Epsom, winning it with both of his Derby winners last century after Teenoso (1983) and Slip Anchor (1985) did likewise. However, since 1998, only Anthony Van Dyck (2019) has completed the double, though Adayar (2021) went one place better at Epsom. 

The 1-2 of Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance are set to meet again after just a neck separated them at Lingfield and they could be joined by Balzac who was 6½ lengths back in third.

Galileo and High Chaparral both completed the Ballysax-Leopardstown Derby Trial double before adding the Derby. Sinndar also won the Leopardstown Trial in 2000, but that race has lost its way somewhat as a Derby trial since the turn of the century after that hat-trick.

In fact, of the last 46 winners of those two Leopardstown Derby guides combined, only Harzand (2016) has won either race then went on to add the Derby. Delacroix was sent off 2-1 favourite for last season’s Derby after he won both the Ballysax and Leopardstown Derby Trial but finished a non-staying ninth before dropping back in distance to win the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes.

James J Braddock went from finishing fifth in the Ballysax won by Christmas Day to getting up to lead on the post to beat Pierre Bonnard (previously seventh in the Ballysax) in the Leopardstown Derby Trial. Endorsement was placed on both occasions, beaten half a length each time.

Galileo sired four of O’Brien’s 11 Derby winners plus New Approach (2008) for Jim Bolger. He was also the damsire of Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy and the grandsire of Masar, Adayar, Desert Crown and Lambourn) so has been directly involved in seven of the last eight winners.

This year, the x12 champion sire is the grandsire of Benvenuto Cellini, Item, Ancient Egypt, Action and Proposition (who are all progeny of Frankel as was Adayar and three of the last six winners of the Oaks), and Balzac.

Dubawi’s progeny, however, have struggled for a sire of his exceptional standing. Delacroix being his latest Derby disappointment last year, though he did belatedly get off the mark in an Epsom Classic two years ago when Ezeliya won the Oaks.

Granted, it’s a low sample size with Dubawi’s progeny being 0-10 in the Derby, but none finished better than fifth and such few runners could indicate connections’ reluctance to run on stamina worries down the years. His sire, Dubai Millennium, had his only defeat come in the Derby. Dubawi has no sons running in this year’s race, but he is the grandsire of James J Braddock and Bay Of Brilliance.

As for the draw, 14 of the last 16 winners emerged from the higher half, which I don’t think gets enough attention. Since stalls were first utilised for the Derby in 1967, Lambourn became the eleventh winner to emerge from ‘Lucky Stall 10’ last year. There are different ways to look at it for the Derby. 

For example, you might want to plump for a low stall if reading that 14 of the last 24 winners came from a single-figure berth but the Derby doesn’t always attract big fields. Horses drawn in the higher half had won all previous 11 runnings prior to Adayar from stall 1 (City Of Troy then also won from stall 1 as did Oath in 1999) and in three of the four years that followed, so that is the draw-based trend to take more notice of.

The dodgy area can be argued to be lowish without being very low as there has been no Derby winner to come from between stalls 2-6 since Camelot 14 years ago, the early track configuration maybe not being ideal.

In all races with fields of 10+ over 1m4f at Epsom since 1997, horses drawn 1 or 2 can muster only just over a 3% strike rate combined and no horse has ever won the Derby from stall 2 since stalls were first introduced in 1967 - just like the Eurovision Song Contest, then! A stat more for handicaps methinks but something to bear in mind all the same.

Ten of the last 24 winners had already won at Group 1 level. However, being yet to win a Group race isn’t massively important - four of the last 16 winners were winning at Group level for the first time and five of the last 16 winners had yet to win earlier in the campaign, so failing to enter the winners’ enclosure in 2025 isn’t a big issue.

Finishing outside of the first two last time out is more disconcerting as only four Derby winners this century overcame that, though that includes two of the last three after Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy totally blew out in the 2000 Guineas. Seventeen winners this century won last time out.