Betfred Oaks Stats Guide

By Paul Jones

First contested one year before the Derby in 1779, when Ezeliya won the Oaks for Dermot Weld two years ago she was ending a remarkable run of ten editions since the winner did not hail from either the O’Brien or Gosden yards.

It was normal service resumed last season though when Minnie Hauk won and led home an O’Brien 1-2. In fact, Ballydoyle and Clarehaven Stables have won 12 of the last 14 runnings between them and even supplied the 1-2 in six of the last nine editions plus saddled the first four home in 2022.

No surprise, therefore, to see the front three in this season’s market representing O’Brien or the Gosdens. There will be no Godolphin representation this season despite Sheikh Mohammed having owned as many as seven Oaks winners between 1985-2002. However, Kazzia’s was his last some 24 years ago!

The Gosden team are set to be represented by the Musidora winner, Legacy Link, who was fourth in the Fillies’ Mile last season behind Precise who has subsequently won the Irish 1,000 Guineas. The second and third in the 1000 Guineas, Evolutionist and Venetian Lace, filled the places last autumn so that is very strong two-year-old form, and she promises to be even better over middle distances judged on her victory at York.

The Musidora winner really ought to have won three of the last five runnings of the Oaks. Snowfall turned the Classic into a 16-length procession in 2021 after her win at York. Soul Sister also completed the double in 2023 and in between Emily Upjohn blew the start at Epsom losing many lengths and was then rushed up too soon in the home straight, yet she was only beaten by a short head. 

Seven fillies have completed the Musidora-Oaks double since the York trial was established in 1961. Whirl only came up short by a neck of extending that record last season.

Snowfall’s 16l success in the Oaks was a record but wide-margin Oaks’ winners are not uncommon given how well fillies must stay the trip, so stamina is crucial. In addition to Snowfall’s demolition job, from the 1980s onwards we have witnessed Sun Princess win by 12 lengths, Jet Ski Lady by 10 lengths, Love by 9 lengths, Ouija Board by 7 lengths and Oh So Sharp by 6 lengths. 

Ryan Moore will have the choice of the Irish 1,000 Guineas and Cheshire Oaks winners, Precise and Amelia Earhart respectively, for Aidan O’Brien. The Master of Ballydoyle has a little way to go yet to match Robert Robson’s Oaks record of training 13 winners in the space of 24 years in the early 1800s but, by modern-day terms, preparing eight of the last 14 winners and ten in total is a tremendous feat.

Five of his winners were sired by Galileo who is the granddam of Precise and the same total of O’Brien’s winners contested the Irish 1,000 Guineas, notably Imagine who won both Classics in 2001.

Amelia Earhart won the Cheshire Oaks in both a first-time hood and first-time blinkers so can be tricky. Three of the last nine winners prepped in the Cheshire Oaks, notably Enable during a monsoon, and Light Shift won both races in 2007.

Beaten 3¾ lengths into third but catching the eye of many in the Cheshire Oaks on just her second outing was A La Prochaine for Ralph Beckett who would be a surprise winner, if successful. Surprises in the Oaks are not that uncommon; since 2008, we have witnessed winners at 50/1, 33/1 and 20/1 (x3) and back in 1991, Jet Ski Lady was victorious as the complete outsider of nine, also at 50/1. 

Two of those big-priced winners were trained by Beckett including a 1-2. He could also saddle the Musidora and Height Of Fashion Stakes thirds, K Sarra and On Message.

The last winner to be unraced at two was also the least experienced winner this century, Eswarah, who had recorded two wins from as many starts at Newbury earlier in the season. It’s been 21 years since the last Oaks winner had run less than three times beforehand which is what A La Prochaine will be attempting to overcome. Though, that didn’t stop Sun Princess (1983) dance home by a dozen wickets. 

O’Brien could also run the Lingfield Oaks Trial winner, Cameo, who beat Prizeland by 4¾ lengths into second. Since 1992, four fillies have completed the Lingfield Trial-Oaks double.

Frankel has sired three of the last six winners and is the sire of the Joseph O’Brien-trained Thundering On who won the Salsabil Stakes at Navan by 3¼ lengths, which Ezeliya won two years ago before she struck in the Oaks.  

Having the 1000 Guineas winner in the Oaks always adds extra spice but that won’t be happening this season. Oh So Sharp (1985), Midway Lady (1986), Salsabil (1990), Kazzia (2002), Minding (2016) and Love (2020) have pulled off the double in the last four decades and Legatissimo (2015) was an agonising short-head away in the Oaks from joining them, so the Guineas winner has a good strike rate in the Oaks.

Balanchine (1994) was also only a short head away from completing the same double, though her narrow defeat was in the 1000 Guineas so with a little more luck it could easily have been eight.

Over the same period there have also been six horses beaten over a mile at Newmarket that were happier over an extra half a mile by winning at Epsom. Venetian Lace (third) was four places ahead of a ring-rusty Precise (seventh) in the 1000 Guineas and bids to give Charlie Johnston his first Classic winner after Lazy Griff finished second in last season’s Derby.

Fillies drawn in the higher half have held a slight edge - nothing to get too hung up on, unlike in the Derby where high numbers have a much better record. In the last 19 runnings, the score reads 10-9 in favour of the higher half. Eswarah, Qualify and Minnie Hauk have won from stall 2 this century but the last winner to emerge from stall 1 prior to Tuesday (2022) was Salsabil back in 1990. Three other fillies have placed this century from the inside draw.