Reflecting on Constitution River and looking ahead to the Epsom Classics

Aidan O’Brien saddled the first three home in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly on Sunday. Sixteen runners lined up for what is one of the most coveted races in the European racing calendar, three of them trained by O’Brien, and it was those three that utterly dominated the race in a tactical masterclass that was just awe inspiring.

O’Brien has secured 1-2-3s in Group 1 races before, but perhaps only his genuinely mind-blowing 1-2-3 from three runners in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 2016 can top what we saw on Sunday. If you don’t already realise that we are witnessing the greatest of all time at work in his prime, you will inevitably realise it in the fullness of time.

Post-race, a great amount of the focus was on the tactical masterclass that led to the Ballydoyle 1-2-3, but just as much attention should be put on what Constitution River achieved in overcoming stall 15 under Ryan Moore. Any double-figure draw in the Prix du Jockey Club is a particularly tough stall to overcome. In the last decade alone, an array of subsequent Group 1 winners have been beaten from double-figure draws in the race, such as Recoletos, Persian King, Gold Trip, Onesto, Modern Games, Arrow Eagle, Diego Velazquez and Leffard, amongst others.

Indeed, since New Bay won from stall 13 in 2015, no horse had won the Prix du Jockey Club from a stall higher than eight until Constitution River did it from all the way out in stall 15 on Sunday. To broaden it even further, in the 22 renewals of the race since the race distance changed, only five horses have won from stall 13 or higher. They include Shamardal, Lope De Vega, New Bay and now Constitution River. Clearly, it takes a real one to overcome such a draw.

Not only did Constitution River win the race despite his very poor draw, he also stopped the clock in 2:03.53, the third-fastest time since the distance of the race was reduced in 2005. Only the subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winners Sottsass and Act Impact ran faster times in victory in the race. Again, lofty company to be keeping.

While Constitution River may not have been as visually impressive as some greedy souls may have wanted him to be after the fireworks he produced at Chester, his performance can very much be marked up considering what stall he came from. The prospect of seeing him tested against older horses later in the season is a very exciting one indeed. What path his connections choose with him will be fascinating, as they have a huge array of options in front of them, but one that I would find particularly exciting would be for him to be tested in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, as I believe he can carry his class over 12 furlongs if asked to. What a thought!

The Epsom Classics come into focus

With Chantilly in the rearview mirror, we can now give our full focus to the Epsom Classics. There is plenty of rain forecast during the week, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if there was a bit of ease in the ground. This is very much worth bearing in mind as it would change considerations for some of the leading contenders.

Last year’s Derby was particularly notable from a pre-race analysis perspective, in that the pace map suggested it was going to be a strong test of stamina and striding analysis placed significant stamina concerns against the top three in the market. This made it a very appealing race to take a view in, and thankfully it worked out very well for those that were guided by striding analysis.

This year, the Derby has a different sort of look to it. Almost all of the main players seem very likely to stay the trip based on the shape of their striding data, so we can focus on finding the best horse that will be best suited to the conditions on the day. I will be posting a runner-by-runner guide to the Derby on the At The Races website in the coming days, so keep an eye out for that.

In contrast, this year it is the Oaks that has the potential to be the more appealing betting race for those that place weight on striding data. It remains to be seen if the Aidan O’Brien-trained Precise lines up for the race, but if she does, she would be considered an unlikely stayer in my book.

Another short-priced contender that I have significant doubts about is the Charlie Johnston-trained Venetian Lace. She may be by Masar, who was a slow-striding winner of the Derby, but she is out of a Dubawi mare, and she strides much more like a Dubawi than a Masar. As a result, she is an unlikely stayer in my opinion.

In terms of the positives, Ballydoyle hold a strong hand, with Amelia Earhart and Cameo being particularly strong stayers. Thundering On sits in the amber zone of not being a certain stayer, but she looks more likely than not to be fully effective in the Oaks. That she showed career-low stride frequencies when thundering home at the end of a well-run race over the stiff 10 furlongs at Navan offers great encouragement for her prospects in the Oaks.

One formidable aspect of the Epsom Classics that won’t come as a shock to Thundering On in the Oaks, or indeed her stablemate James J Braddock in the Derby, is the extremely steep 41-meter climb over the first five furlongs.

The reason? Joseph O’Brien’s gallop rises 64 meters over the first five furlongs of it. Far from being surprised or physically overwhelmed by it, they have faced into a much steeper climb most days for the last 18 months or more. That long-term physical and mental conditioning may well give them an edge over those punishing first five furlongs of this year’s Epsom Classics.