Last year’s race

• Winner: Cercene
• Jockey: Gary Carroll
• Trainer: Joe G Murphy
• Owner: Mr Shane R Stafford
• Age: 3 Weight: 9st 2lbs
• Starting Price: 33/1
• Season Form Figures: 323
• Previous Best: 3rd - Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas (Fillies’ Group 1), Curragh (May 2025)

By Paul Jones

There have been some surprise results down the years, Cercene at 33/1 last season being a case in point, but this Group 1 affair for three-year-old fillies usually goes more or less the way of The Form Book and especially of late with 21 of the last 26 winners found at no bigger than 6/1 with 12 starting favourite or joint market leader.

Of the big three European versions of the 1000 Guineas, the Newmarket version has fared best being responsible for 13 of the last 23 winners, with 10 of those having finished in the first six at Newmarket, while the runner-up in that Classic has gone one place better here in two of the last three runnings. The 1-2-3-4-5-6 in the 1000 Guineas were True Love (since beaten 2½ lengths into second by the seventh at Newmarket in Precise in the Irish 1,000 Guineas), Evolutionist, Venetian Lace, The Prettiest Star, Abashiri and Touleen.

The Irish have won six of the last nine runnings, including three for Aidan O’Brien, so his record in the Coronation Stakes hasn’t been as stellar as for the other Group 1s at Royal Ascot from a mile upwards.

The Irish 1,000 Guineas winner has followed up her success here on 10 occasions in the last 39 years, so they have a better record than the 1000 Guineas winner, even if the Newmarket Classic has thrown up more winners generally. 

It makes sense being three weeks closer to Royal Ascot, but it appears that Precise is more likely to wait for the Oaks, so True Love could be his Coronation Stakes representative. That way, Ryan Moore could also ride both horses having chosen wrongly in both the 1000 Guineas and Irish 1,000 Guineas leaving Wayne Lordan to benefit at Newmarket and the Curragh.

The French 1000 Guineas has held up more than okay given that it wouldn’t have anywhere near the same representation as the Newmarket and Curragh Classics as seven of last 31 Coronation Stakes winners previously contested that prize (the last of was Watch Me seven years ago who was only sixth at ParisLongchamp) with five having finished second or third in that Classic. 

In 2015 the Aga Khan’s Ervedya became the first winner of the French 1000 Guineas to win the Coronation Stakes since Toro in 1957 (Zarigana should have been another last year but threw it away late on) but many winners of that Classic then head to the Prix de Diane instead over an extra two and a half furlongs, so don’t read anything into that. O’Brien’s Diamond Necklace won the ‘Pouliches’ and looks like heading to the ‘Diane’.

If the French can bag the winner, then it would be their sixth this century after Banks Hill (Fabre), Immortal Verse (Collet), Ervedya and Qemah (both for Rouget), and Watch Me (Graffard).

Alpine Star was an unusual winner six years ago as she became the first filly to take a more softly-softly approach and bypass all the European Guineas for nine years. She was winning on her seasonal debut as was Inspiral in 2022 having not come to hand in time for the 1000 Guineas. She became only the third winner since 1999 not to have run in a Classic but had won a pattern race at two though like 14 of the last 22 winners. 

A wider drawn hasn’t been a disadvantage on the round mile. Far from it in fact with 11 of the last 15 winners drawn in the higher half and six of those from the highest three stalls.