Last year’s race

• Winner: American Affair
• Jockey: Paul Mulrennan
• Trainer: Jim S Goldie
• Owner: Barraston Racing & Mr J S Goldie
• Age: 5 Weight: 9st 7lbs
• Starting Price: 11/1
• Season Form Figures: 115
• Previous Best: 1st - Lindum York Handicap (Class 2), York (May 2025)

By Paul Jones

Formerly known as the King’s Stand, we again look set to have an international flavour, with the Australian-trained pair of Overpass and Joliestar currently heading the ante-post betting.

The Aussies have plundered this 5f Group 1 contest on six occasions going back to 2003, and during that time there have also been international successes for Ireland in 2013 and 2014 - both for Sole Power - for America in 2017 with Lady Aurelia, for Hong Kong in 2012 with Little Bridge, and even a Spanish-trained winner in 2008 when Equiano recorded his first of two successes in the race. There have also been three wins for France between 1997-2005.

British-trained horses have fought back to win seven of the last 11 runnings, having previously been up against it since the sprinting scene became more global, and American Affair was giving Jim Goldie a very popular first Group 1 and Royal Ascot winner when successful last season, in a career which has spanned three decades. The last of 12 horses to win this race on two occasions was Blue Point in 2019, though three horses have managed to do so going back to 2010 (with Equiano and Sole Power being the other two).

Asfoora won the 2024 renewal when trained by Henry Dwyer, representing Australia, but last season’s champion sprinter - following wins in the Nunthorpe and Abbaye - is now trained by Lemos de Souza in Newmarket and so has had a different preparation. How much she would have enjoyed a British winter is up for debate, and she has only beaten two rivals home in her two prep races.

Three of Australia’s six King Charles III winners (all since 2003) won the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington in February (won this season by Tentyris), which is unlikely to have a representative this season. Overpass hasn't won since November 2024 and finished fourth behind Joliestar in a Grade 1 at Randwick in April off a 112-day break, but it is he of the Aussie pair that has managed to get closest to Ka Ying Rising (1½ lengths) when they have taken on the world’s best sprinter, and some would say racehorse.

Given how outnumbered they are, fillies/mares actually have a decent strike rate, winning seven of the last 32 runnings, so that’s a tick in Joliestar and Asfoora’s box.

Age is not a critical factor, with recent winners aged from three right through to seven in the last decade, but over a longer period of time three-year-olds have a decent-enough strike rate, winning on average twice a decade, which may not sound exciting but they are always heavily outnumbered, so do afford them respect. However, the Commonwealth Cup over 6f and restricted to the classic generation is likely to take some contenders away from this 5f contest.

The Temple Stakes - won this season by Night Raider, who was following up his success in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket - has been the best guide to date, featuring eight winners since 1990, so two ahead of the Prix du Gros-Chene with five winners in the last 30 years. Despite not being able to blast it from the front as usual after a slowish start, Karl Burke’s improved five-year-old stayed on strongly to win comfortably, so the stiffer 5f at Ascot could well bring about further improvement. Making all is not easy on the straight course, so a similar running style as at Haydock could also benefit him.

Exactly half of the last 26 winners were also successful on their most recent outing. In fact, exactly two-thirds of the last 21 winners finished either first or second last time out.

As you would expect for a competitive Group 1 sprint, pattern-race winners have come to the fore, with 27 of the last 37 winners having already won at Group 1 or Group 2 level, so no massive angle there. All but five of the last 26 winners had also won a Group race over the minimum trip of 5f (also to be expected), while all bar two of those last 24 winners had also enjoyed the benefit of a run earlier in the season (still nothing to get particularly excited about).