Last year’s race

• Winner: Carmers
• Jockey: Billy Lee
• Trainer: Paddy Twomey
• Owner: Mrs Fiona Carmichael
• Age: 3 Weight: 9st 2lbs
• Starting Price: 9/2
• Season Form Figures: 11
• Previous Best: 1st - Yeats Stakes (Listed), Navan (May 2025)

By Paul Jones

Since 2017 the Queen’s Vase has taken place over 1m6f rather than 2m so the draw becomes more important as there is a very short run to the first bend and low numbers are favoured. True, the Evens favourite, Gregory, imposed his class on proceedings to win from stall 8 in 2023 but no winner has won from a double-figure stall since the change and five of the last six winners were drawn 1-5.

Also upgraded to Group 2 status in 2017 in an attempt to breathe new life into this division, that move worked perfectly with four of the first six winners since that change being the subsequent three-time Ascot Gold Cup hero, Stradivarius, the subsequent St Leger winners and second, Kew Gardens, Eldar Eldarov and Illinois, and Santiago who went on to win the Irish Derby. It had also seemed to be doing okay to me beforehand though having recently featured three other St Leger and two Gold Cup winners ahead of that change, so it is certainly a race to take note of contenders going forward. Kyprios was also declared for the 2021 running but was withdrawn having become upset in the stalls and three races later won the Gold Cup at Ascot.

It has been the Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute and Godolphin show since the turn of the century carving up 21 of the 26 runnings between them. Only John Gosden (two winners), Andrew Balding, Roger Varian and Paddy Twomey have got in on that act during that period. Seven years ago, it was even a 1-2-3 for O’Brien and he is chasing a seventh win in the last 14 years (and a ninth in 20).

With his father having trained seven of the last 25 winners, we wait to see what Charlie Johnston can do but it will be harder for him now that it’s a Group 2 over 1m6f and not a lower-class race over 2m like when the stable was having their winners.

Also take note that Sheikh Mohammed has won seven Queen’s Vase's since 1990, four in his maroon-and-white colours and three in the Godolphin blue, the latest with Kemari in 2021.

Also note that the Queen’s Vase has been a mighty good race for followers of the market with 17 of the last 18 winners starting in the first three in the betting and just one winner during that time period started at any bigger than 11/1. The favourite has obliged on 11 occasions in the last 26 years.

Sixteen winners this century had recorded a victory earlier in the campaign so it is a little surprising that half of the last 24 winners were beaten last time out. That said, 12 of the last 17 winners to beaten on their most recent start were contesting Group and Listed races in defeat.

The most surprising statistic with regards to winners since 1996 was that as many as nine were unraced at two after Carmers last season and Gregory two years earlier (both were 2-2) after a drought of 14 years for them.