Last year’s race

• Winner: Lazzat
• Jockey: James Doyle
• Trainer: Jerome Reynier
• Owner: Wathnan Racing
• Age: 4 Weight: 9st 5lbs
• Starting Price: 9/2
• Season Form Figures: 41
• Previous Best: 1st - ARC Prix Maurice de Gheest (Group 1), Deauville (August 2024)

By Paul Jones

Twelve of the last 27 winners were sent off at double-figure odds, so this has been the hardest of the eight Group 1 races at Royal Ascot for punters.

It was an international 1-2 last season as Lazzat from France held off Satono Reve for Japan, the pair pulling clear of the field with Flora Of Bermuda faring best of the rest. Lazzat will not be here to defend his title, but Satono Reve could be back and Lugal is another potential runner for the Japanese. Joliestar has the option of running in both this race and the King Charles III Stakes for Australia.

International raiders have a good record with Choisir and Black Caviar winning for Australia, Cape Of Good Hope for Hong Kong and Undrafted for America. Both of Aidan O’Brien’s winners, Starspangledbanner and Merchant Navy, were formerly trained in Australia. In addition, the Aussie pair of Takeover Target and Star Witness also finished third here after winning and finishing second respectively in the King’s Stand and three other American-trained horses have hit the frame since 2009 in addition to Wesley Ward’s Undrafted causing a mini-surprise.

Previous Royal Ascot form has been a useful pointer as half of the last 30 winners had been placed at worst at this meeting before. In fact, the 2022 Godolphin-owned 1-2, Naval Crown and Creative Force, had also finished 1-2 in the previous season’s Jersey Stakes, though the other way round. In addition, Dream Of Dreams had finished a close-up second in this race for the previous two years before making it third time lucky in 2021. Whether it is the Berkshire course that brings the best out of such contenders or the fact that their connections have readied them for this particular week is a difficult one to weigh up. Though I would argue that there is something in both arguments.

Continuing that theme, seven years ago Blue Point emulated Choisir in completing the King Charles III-Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee double on the opening and closing days of the meeting. Five of the last 23 winners ran in the King’s Stand Stakes as have two of the last 11 runners-up.

Outside of previous Royal Ascot form, the renamed Minster Stakes at York (formerly the Duke Of York) has been the best guide as, since 1992, 11 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes winners ran in that Group 2 event on the Knavesmire over the same trip with six finishing first or second before striking here. In fact, the 2024 1-2-3 all prepped in that Group 2 contest. This season’s running witnessed the York specialist Elmonjed beat Kind Of Blue and Regional. Group and Listed race winners with a victory earlier in the season have won 18 of the last 31 runnings.

The brilliant Black Caviar was the last female winner 14 years ago (and only winner since the race became a Group 1) and she was a bit special. Prior to that it was Posada back in 1988, so this Group 1 sprint at Royal Ascot has been much tougher fillies and mares at Royal Ascot than the other two.

There can a huge difference between five and six furlongs at top level for many horses, as both trips have their specialists and the majority of horses more at home over the minimum trip tend to get caught out over an extra 220 yards at Group 1 standard. It is interesting that Sir Henry Cecil believed that 6f at Ascot races more like 6½f, so maybe there is something in the fact that only Kingsgate Native had not previously won over 6f prior to his victory since 1990. Six of the last 10 winners had never run over 5f. In fact, only two of the last 24 winners had not run over at least 7f at some point.

Take out Hello Youmzain in the Covid year when the season was only two weeks old and only Naval Crown has won its seasonal debut in the last 43 years.