Kevin Blake's Breeders' Cup Friday tips

Published 12.30

The Breeders’ Cup is one of the great occasions in the international horse racing calendar. The two-day meeting brings together the best that America has to offer and any international challengers that are game to come and have a go. 

What it produces is an event that really does feel very big. I made my belated first trip to the Breeders’ Cup last year and such was the impression it made on me that I booked this year’s trip just weeks after returning home. Seeing all the horses having the final touches put on their preparations in the mornings and witnessing all the storylines building as the week progresses serves to heighten expectations and excitement to the two days of action. It really is a special one.

Anyway, enough of that. Let’s try to cut through the razmataz and find a winner or two.

The first race of interest is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (21.45). The Europeans have enjoyed a strong recent run of form in the race and they represent half this 12-strong field, but they arguably take up too much of this market and I’m inclined to side of with one of the home team at a big price in the shape of the Steve Asmussen-trained OBLITERATION.

The son of Violence put up one of the very best performances in his work at the OBS March Sale, showing excellent speed but a short stride. He has delivered on the promise of that by putting together a strong body of work on the racecourse over longer trips than this. He most recently finished second to the less experienced Schwarzenegger in a Listed race at Keeneland, failing by ½-length to give him 2lb. He is 2lb better off here and crucially has a much better draw than that rival. 

However, the main angle to him is the potential suitability to the drop to the shortest trip he has tackled combined with a good draw. The mechanics he has shown thus far suggest that a sharp test over 5f will play to his strengths and might well help him produce a career-best effort here. Most of his rivals drawn underneath him are European and we know that historically they often don’t break quite as sharply as their American counterparts, so one can envisage Obliteration taking up a very favourable position in the early stages. He looks a very big price and makes plenty of appeal as a win/place proposition.

For those of a European inclination, the two big focus points of the action on Friday will be the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf (23.05) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (00.25). They both present a real conundrum in having clear form picks that are trained by Aidan O’Brien, but have both been burdened with the very widest stall. While Precise in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf is getting much more air time and one can understand why, I think that it is GSTAAD in the Juvenile Turf that represents the better bet of the two.

The son of Starspangledbanner has established a really strong body of work throughout this season. He made the perfect start to his career by beating True Love in a maiden back in May and went on to win the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in great style. Since then, he has been beaten three times in Group 1 company, but has run very well indeed on each occasion and arguments could readily be made that he could have won any one of those three races in slightly different circumstances.

His stride mechanics suggest that the step up to this sharp mile will suit him well, as will the fast ground. The main focus point surrounding his chance will be his wide draw, but I am not as downbeat about it as most. The main focus of my attention is the relative lack of strength of opposition that he has to face compared to Precise. 

I think Gstaad is much the best horse in this race and while one would never pick the widest stall, I am comfortable with him sacrificing a few lengths by travelling wider than his better drawn rivals if it allows him to slingshot into the straight and get an uninterrupted opportunity to express himself down the outside in the straight. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t get the job done under Christophe Soumillon.