Kevin Blake's Breeders' Cup Saturday tips

Published 17.10 31/10

Day two of the Breeders’ Cup features the main jewels in the crown of the big meeting. Like many reading this, I have so many happy (and plenty of unhappy!) memories of this event over the decades that all come flooding back at this time of year. With a bit of luck, hopefully this column will be able to steer you towards the creation of some happy memories for the 2025 edition of this great meeting.

The first race of interest is the Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (19.41). While there is plenty of European interest with the three-strong raiding party, it is hard to get away from the strong impression that the current crop of sprinters in Europe are a below-par group. This makes it easy for me to side with the Philip D’Amato-trained MOTORIOUS for the home team.

The seven-year-old son of Muhaarar started his career in Britain for Stuart Williams, but has lifted his form to another level in sprints in America. What is particularly eye-catching about his form in the context of this race is that he has an exceptional record over this sharp course and distance, winning four of his five starts over it (albeit getting one in the steward’s room having been beaten by a nose by Reef Runner who reopposes here on 5lb worse terms) with his only defeat coming by a neck in this race last year. That defeat was arguably a shade unfortunate too, as he had to switch from the rail to the four-path to get a clear run whereas the eventual winner Starlust followed him through and got a much kinder split.

In what are such frantic contests, Motorious has put together an admirably consistent body of work and clearly thrives over this course and distance. His low draw and hold-up style will mean that he will be diving for room in the straight, but he seems sure to be powering home in the closing stages.

The main event of the entire meeting is the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (22.25). We don’t have a big European interest as we did with City Of Troy last year and the race was struck a blow with the superstar Sovereignty being ruled out during the week, we are still left with a captivating clash of the generations with a huge amount of subplots.

The more I delve into the race, the more I keep coming back to the Todd Pletcher-trained FIERCENESS. The four-year-old would never be put forward as a model of consistency, but when he is at this best, he really is something special. What he did in this race last year was as commendable a run in defeat as one will ever see, as he sat up right in the searing heat of a blistering pace from the outset and picked up the baton to lead fully three furlongs out. That he rallied as well as he did to go down by 1½ lengths to Sierra Leone really was a huge effort.

While his form since has varied somewhat, he returned to his brilliant best in the Pacific Classic over this course and distance nine weeks ago. Drawn in stall one, he made a somewhat disconcerting dive left at the rail spur soon after the start, but despite that scare he went on to produce one of the more impressive performances of his career, surging to the lead off a strong pace fully three furlongs from home and seeing off the challenge of the more quietly ridden Journalism by 3¼ lengths.

Fierceness is owned by Mike Repole who has made no secret of his displeasure regarding the use of Contrary Thinking as a pacemaker for Sierra Leone in the Whitney Stakes earlier this year and with Contrary Thinking again taking his place in this field, it has created another layer of narrative to the build-up. While we are well accustomed to the use of pace makers in our part of the world, the use of “rabbits” in the US is rarer. Repole has generated a lot of entertainment by referring to Contrary Thinking as Sierra Leone’s “emotional support rabbit.”

Mind, rather than the use of Contrary Thinking being a negative for Fierceness, I can see it being a benefit to him to have a strong pace in front of him that he knows is going to stop. The great Johnny Velazquez will be fully aware of what is likely to happen and will be prepared to make his adjustments when Contrary Thinking cries enough. 

Similarly, Johnny V will be more aware than anyone that Fierceness dived to the inner from stall one in the early stages over this course and distance last time and will be prepared to do what he can to stop it happening again. The way the 10f course at Del Mar has been playing, I’d much rather be with one that is going to be more forward than back, so all told Fierceness is very much the one for me. I can’t wait to see it!