By Adam Mills
Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1)
The 2025 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic went to Japan. Forever Young crowned a phenomenal 2025 campaign with a superb victory, racing on the front end under Ryusei Sakai before kicking for glory off the home turn. Having finished third in the race 12 months ago, he certainly wasn’t a shock winner, and this performance confirmed his place as one of the best international dirt horses we have seen run in the US. He is clearly the horse to focus on, but this was such an entertaining renewal of the Classic that it felt right to analyse the performance of each of the nine runners that went to post.
1st Forever Young (Real Steel - Forever Darling): Ryusei Sakai became briefly unbalanced when leaving the stalls, but that was probably the only point in the race at which Forever Young looked in trouble. Once into a rhythm, he quickened smartly from the stalls with opening furlongs of 12.38s and 10.79s. The sectional times might suggest a case that Forever Young was in the right place at the right time, and that’s probably an accurate assessment. At no point in the race did he run the fastest furlong split, though his 10.79s second furlong was just 0.01s behind the early pacesetter (Contrary Thinking). The outsider of the field actually helped his cause, giving him a pace to track around the far turn, but the back stretch was very different this year. Middle furlongs of 12.11s and 12.21s (5th and 6th) compared to the 11.80s and 11.88s run by last year’s winner Sierra Leone over the same part of the course in 2024 point to a noticeable drop in the pace at halfway. This led to a concertina effect, and as a result there was perhaps an advantage to be gained by Forever Young from his more prominent position. As the field headed into the far turn there were just six lengths from front to back, and this allowed Forever Young to get first run into the straight. Once in front, he found plenty for Sakai, with each of his final three-furlong splits ranking in the top three and a run-out speed of 35.61mph only surpassed by the runner-up. In the 2024 Classic he lost ground in the straight and drifted into the centre of the course, but he has since made amends and added a Breeders’ Cup Classic to his Saudi Cup victory from earlier in the year. He has set a very high standard from a worldwide campaign, and despite the drop in pace in the early stages it shouldn't be missed that he ran a faster winning time (2:00.19) than Sierra Leone managed in 2024.
2nd Sierra Leone (Gun Runner - Heavenly Love): Last year’s winner lost very little in defeat in a race that wasn’t run to suit. Once again he recorded a much longer average stride length figure than Forever Young, hitting a race peak average of 26.41ft compared to the 25.13ft recorded by the winner. Although the overall winning time was faster, this year’s race lacked the frantic early speed from 2024, and as a result Sierra Leone found himself striding into the back of the pack as they compacted into the far turn. Once out in the clear he made ground down the centre of the course, with his final furlong time of 12.02s - a race-best figure - 0.31s faster than both the winner and third. A run-out speed of 36.19mph - another race-best figure - might point to the fact that he was an unlucky loser, but this race was lost at the start. It wasn’t a total surprise to see him drop in behind the early pace, but he conceded 1.15s to Forever Young by the time they reached the mile pole. In a race where he was 0.46s slower over the opening quarter of a mile than he was in 2024, the Classic just wasn’t run to suit him this time around. A finishing speed of 95.81% in 2024 compared to the 97.43% that he recorded on this occasion highlights the fine margins by which these races are won, with the slight movement of the needle towards speed over stamina having seen him come up just short in his bid to defend his crown. Sierra Leone lost nothing in defeat, confirming the form with Fierceness and getting the better of Journalism in the process - the best three-year-old to make it to this year’s renewal.
3rd Fierceness (City of Light - Nonna Bella): Enjoyed a relatively-easy trip around the course from his plum draw in stall 1. Although slightly inconvenienced when Forever Young came across him to the inside rail in the penultimate furlong, it didn't affect his chance of winning. Closing furlongs of 12.05s and 12.33s ranked first and second in the field, but he was just 0.02s quicker than the winner over the final quarter of a mile, while his final time of 2:00.43 was 0.65s faster than he ran 12 months ago. Having been well drawn and well placed, there are no obvious reasons to think that he could have won this race with a different trip. To give him due credit, despite a 2lb swing at the weights he has upheld the form with Journalism from the Pacific Classic in August, as well as proven himself to be a Grade 1 performer on multiple occasions. It is simply that he comes up a few pounds short of those at the very pinnacle of the dirt racing pyramid.
4th Journalism (Curlin - Mopotism): Can we use his performance to rate where Sovereignty would have finished in this race? Possibly, though the drop in pace in the back straight may well have inconvenienced the champion three-year-old. Regardless of that, Journalism has produced close to a career best to finish fourth behind three well established dirt racing champions. At an average of 25.40ft, he consistently recorded the longest stride in the field and was the fastest horse for furlongs four and eight. Much like Fierceness, he sat in the box seat behind the leaders before making his challenge three-wide around the turn. Covering the extra ground clearly didn’t help his chances, but he was found out for stamina in the home stretch as Sierra Leone readily came past him. His closing splits of 12.26s and 12.69s were over 0.5s slower than the three horses that finished in front of him - a very similar story to his earlier defeats behind Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. As he showed in the Preakness, he has a superb turn of foot, and when we look back at his 2025 campaign it may point to a long-striding miler whose stamina was slightly stretched by this 10-furlong trip.
5th Mindframe (Constitution - Walk of Stars): He ran a fine race after what happened to him in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes at Saratoga, confirming the earlier impression that his form gave after beating Sierra Leone in June. At 43.96mph he recorded the highest top speed figure in the contest, but he couldn’t sustain that effort into the straight, and once headed he was beaten. Mindframe has lost very little in defeat, and having been quicker than Forever Young in furlongs five and six to get himself into a challenging position, he can be forgiven his tired effort in the straight. Having had a less-than-ideal preparation for this race, this was certainly a solid effort, and it’s not impossible to think that he could get closer if he returns in 2026.
6th Baeza (McKinzie - Puca): He came into this race on the back of a victory in the Pennsylvania Derby in September, but much like earlier in the season in the Triple Crown races Baeza came up slightly short at the very highest level. He was the fastest horse in furlongs six and seven (11.90s and 12.17s) as Hector Barrios attempted to close on the leaders, but his race top speed of 41.45mph ranked last of the nine runners, and he simply lacked the class and stamina required to get on terms. He is a Grade 1 winner and has hit the frame in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Santa Anita Derby to add to an already impressive CV. However, with a shorter stride than the likes of Journalism and Sovereignty, he has come up slightly short this year, with the data from his run in the Classic simply confirming that. “A very good horse in an exceptional year” would sum up his three-year-old season.
7th Nevada Beach (Omaha Beach - Morrow Cove): A very lightly-raced three-year-old, making just his fifth career start in a Breeders’ Cup Classic. He managed to get the better of Full Serrano in the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita in September, but that rivals below-par run in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile would now suggest that the form of that race is slightly open to question. He still ran with great credit, but he lost ground around the far turn when the run for home began before keeping on again in the home straight. His final furlong time of 12.76s ranked fifth, while his run-out speed of 33.55mph ranked third, which would suggest he did have something left. With more time and experience he may yet be capable of further improvement, and he certainly shouldn’t be written off on the back of this run given how lightly raced he is for Bob Baffert.
8th Antiquarian (Preservationist - Lifetime Memory): He was a slightly fortunate winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga and, as may have been expected, that form was readily reversed by Sierra Leone. His stride frequency averaged 2.24 per-second in the back stretch, and he appeared to be going as fast as he could to hold his position as they approached the far turn. The likes of Forever Young, Sierra Leone and Fierceness were able to increase their stride frequency into the ninth furlong, whereas Antiquarian was not. He has had a fine season, and his connections will be delighted to have a Grade 1 victory on his CV, but this proved to be a step too far.
9th Contrary Thinking (Into Mischief - Valadorna): Proved to be the pace angle in the race, and he was the fastest horse in each of the opening three furlongs in reaching the seven-furlong point in 34.24s. He couldn’t sustain such a pace and was eased when beaten, but given his bright early speed and the fact that he had the highest average stride frequency figure in each of the first eight furlongs, he isn't a horse to entirely dismiss, especially if his connections decide to drop him back to the mile trip. He is a nice horse but was ultimately outclassed, running to a level that his SP of 66/1 suggested he would.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.