Breeders' Cup Favourites: Three to believe, three to leave

By Barry Faulkner

In this space in 2024, I managed to side with three of the jollies who justified their place at the head of the market: Immersive in the Juvenile Fillies at 11-4, who won at 5-2; Lase Victoria in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, tipped at 11-10, before winning at 4-7, and Thorpedo Anna, put up at a thin 8-13 in the Distaff, before scoring at skinnier 2-5. 

Of the three on the ‘leave’ side, I opposed East Avenue at 2-1 in the Juvenile, the same price as he was on the day, when finishing last but one – with an excuse; Cogburn in the Turf Sprint, opposed at 6-4 and who finished fifth at 4-5, and finally, City of Troy, who was a 7-4 favourite at the time of writing, before finishing eighth at 7-2 in the Classic.

So, onto this year…

Believe

#9 TRUE LOVE

(NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, 22.45 Friday)

True Love got off the mark on her third start, when winning the G2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Going five furlongs, she won that by 1¼ lengths, and had one of the main US hopes here, Lennilu, among her victims. She has advanced significantly since then, winning the G2 Railway Stakes at the Curragh on her next start, before a hiccup in the top-level Phoenix Stakes there three weeks later. However, this daughter of the speedy No Nay Never, out of an unraced mare by Fastnet Rock, put up a scintillating effort to take the G1 Cheveley Park at the end of September, seeing off Havana Anna by ¾ of a length.

A lot has been made of the fact that last year’s winner of the Chevely Park, Lake Victoria, stepped up in trip to win the Juvenile Fillies Turf, whereas this lass is cutting back in trip. However, on all the measure we have over here, she is well ahead of last year’s winner Magnum Force, and I think she has the tools to take required to take this.

#13 PRECISE

(John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, 23.05 Friday)

Precise looked very impressive when winning the bet365 Fillies Mile at Newmarket three weeks ago, striding away to score by 3¼ lengths. That was her second Group 1 win on the bounce, having taken the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh in the middle of September. Before that, she was handy enough to win the Virgin Bet Prestige Stakes at Goodwood, and that nimbleness at that tricky track will serve her well scuttling around the turf oval at Del Mar.

The one possible negative may to be the draw but Lake Victoria scored after breaking three from the outside last year. That filly, who arrived here with similarly impressive credentials in 2024, also became the second winner in three years for Aidan O’Brien, in a division which was previously a bit of a bogey for him. Add in an able deputy in the plate in Christophe Soumillon, and Precise should make it three from four in this race for the Ballydoyle maestro.

#14 GSTAAD

(Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, 00.25 Saturday)

Royal Ascot’s Coventry Stakes winner Gstaad is out to snap a three-race run of second placings here. However, all those reversals came by under a length in three of the most prestigious juvenile races of the season over here; the Prix Morny at Deauville in August; the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh in September, and Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket earlier this month. All three were excellent efforts on the clock, earning figures ahead of the ones Henri Mattise brought to the party last year.  

Like his Coolmore compatriot two races before, he will have to cope with a ‘parking lot’ draw but, by the time we get to this race, Christophe Soumillon will have worked out the requirement, and I am hoping that this lad complete the hat-trick in the juvenile turf races for Aidan O’Brien.

Leave

#8 TED NOFFEY

(FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, 23:45 Friday)

Ted Noffey has not put a hoof wrong so far, winning all his three races. They were a Maiden Special Weight, followed by the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga, winning the first by 1½ lengths, then demolishing the opposition by 8½ lengths and up next time out. Next came another top-grade contest, the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. He went off at a shade of odds on for that race and settled comfortably off modest fractions, before doing what was expected, coming home a 2¾ length winner from the second favourite,

So, what is not to like? First, he earned a speed figure below the one he got for the Hopeful there and secondly, it was not a true test of his ability to get a strongly run two-turn race, which is not guaranteed looking at his pedigree. He looks like being the shortest-priced favourite across the two days, but has a couple of interesting looking locals to contend with and, at the price, is one I’ll be playing against.

#8 SEISMIC BEAUTY

(Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff, 21.01 Saturday)

Seismic Beauty is one of the real talking horses at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. After finishing in the frame in a couple of entry level Allowances sprinting, she won one at that level on her first go around two turns, thumping four rivals while doing as she pleased in front. That was in the middle of April, on her fifth start overall. The following month she met and mastered four opponents in the G2 Santa Margarita, controlling the pace again going nine furlongs to win by 5 lengths. Those four races were at Santa Anita. Then, after a break of close to ten weeks, she returned to win the G1 Clement Hirsch going eight and a half furlongs here. Once more, she had things all her own way up front and came home 1½ lengths ahead of Kopion, with Richi 3½ lengths further back in third. (Those two are racing over shorter trips here.)

It is the speed figure that she earned from that race that has horseplayers purring. My issue is that she has been unchallenged by west coast regulars in those last two, enjoying the benefits of running her race with no hindrance. She is meeting stronger opposition from the east in this race, and any flaws in her constitution will be tested. That puts her on my oppose list.

#8 MINNIE HAUK

(Longines Breeders' Cup Turf, 21.41 Saturday)

I feel a bit guilty putting up Minnie Hauk here. I mean she has won four Oaks and was only beaten a head in the Arc just under four weeks ago. However, it is that race which leads me to my conclusion. Drawn from the inside, Christophe Soumillon did what he had to do and got her away sharply from the gate on the soft going. She continued to race prominently on a part of the track that was, admittedly, less of a test than those racing wider were encountering. However, she then kicked for home two furlongs out, and was under a strong drive as she drifted across the track late on, before getting picked up by Daryz close to the line.  

She had a very hard race there and comes back from a break of just four weeks. To win this, she will have to have the freakish recovery ability of Found who managed to slip in a couple of runs on Champions Day in between the Arc and the Turf back in 2015 and 2016. I am not taking that chance at a likely skinny price.