Horse-by-horse-guide: Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

By Peter Fornatale

The Dirt Mile is a race I have mixed feelings about generally speaking in that it has the potential to detract from two other races – the Classic and the Sprint. Cody’s Wish’s amazing double made me a huge fan of the race during his amazing run, but now we’re back to it being the Breeders’ Cup race for horses that don’t fit neatly into one of those other races. One of the main storylines this time around will be Full Serrano, looking to emulate Cody’s Wish by winning the race two years in a row? Can he do it? Let’s look through the field and see what we think

#1 WILL TAKE IT

Mike Smith | Dallas Stewart 

Best effort came when winning a minor Stakes race at Churchill Downs in June. Wasn’t seen for three months prior to beating only one home in the Ack Ack and has generally plied his trade outside optional claiming company. Looks to be just making up the numbers here. 

#2 GOAL ORIENTED 

Luis Saez | Bob Baffert 

Lightly-raced type who ran extremely well in the Preakness given it was just his third start and his first in Stakes company. Just edged out in the Haskell with a 101 Beyer and that form looks pretty darn good, while he also ran a blinder in the Pennsylvania Derby last time out at Parx. Travelled supremely well through that contest and looked sure to win when taking up the running off the turn but just got outstayed I felt at a track that can be very testing, while it was also his first run for two months. The drop back to a sharp mile won’t bother him and I can see him getting a nice run around here from two before unleashing his challenge. Needs more on form and figures, but he is training sharply. 

#3 NYSOS 

Flavien Prat | Bob Baffert 

In his six starts, Nysos has shown real flashes of brilliance. At one point he was the favourite for the ’24 Kentucky Derby and he wouldn’t have been too far down the market earlier this season for this year’s Classic. In both cases, injuries caused a change of plans. He was scratched on the morning of this year’s Pacific Classic with a foot issue and he’s been playing catch-up ever since. On his best days, he’s looked like a prototypical Baffert superstar in that he has speed and can really grind on in the late stages of the race. But the questions about his preparations are real. The vibes seem very positive on him in terms of his workouts and the market. 

#4 MYSTIK DAN 

Francisco Arrieta| Kenny McPeek 

The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner was starting to look like a flash in the pan after a three-race stretch culminating earlier this season where he ran eighth, sixth, and ninth. But Ken McPeek persevered and proved that this is a legitimate graded stakes animal with wins and Grade 2 and Grade 3 level. I have a couple of concerns for this spot. For one thing, all of his best races have come under the twin spires of Churchill Downs – he’s just 1 for 11 elsewhere – but that could be an anomaly. The bigger issue is that there is still a gap between a good G2 horse and a proper Grade 1 horse, and it might be the latter that’s needed to win this. 

#5 TUMBARUMBA 

Tyler Gaffalione | Brian Lynch 

Really cool Louisiana-bred son of Oscar Performance has impressed me a lot over the past couple of seasons because he is such a hard tryer. He’s been in the frame in 17 of his 19 dry dirt starts. One of the rare out-of-the-money tries came in this race last year, when he was fourth while running his race. And therein lies the problem, he’s just a little outclassed against this level of competition. With the right kind of run, he can make the frame, but that’s the ceiling. 

#6 FULL SERRANO 

Joel Rosario | John Sadler 

Connections were considering a tilt at the Classic but his flat effort late in the Goodwood at odds-on quelled that thought. Instead, he’ll head back to the Dirt Mile, which he won so impressively last year. He arrives in similar form, turning back in distance off a second in a Grade 1 where he couldn’t quite see things out. There’s not much pace signed on for a race of its type and it’s possible that he could get to the lead without too much trouble here. Either way, he can rate just off the speed if needed and I think the last run represented a step forward from his seasonal bow even in defeat. Every chance of doubling up. 

#7 CITIZEN BULL 

Javier Hernandez | Bob Baffert 

Possible pace angle who was last seen dominating a three-horse listed race at Del Mar at 2-5, earning a 98 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Normally I’d write something like “we didn’t learn much from that,” but in this case, that’s not really appropriate because with as disappointing as he’d been for much of the season, at least we were able to finally see the promise that last year’s Juvenile winner showed at two and in that first start at three. Baffert has had good success bringing three-year-old horses forward with this exact type of layoff at Breeders’ Cup before. He’ll need to improve and you can make a case that he will. For me, who has never really been a supporter, it would be an odd time to jump on board. But every horse has its price and he’s double-figures with the UK bookmakers now. 

#8 CHANCER MCPATRICK 

Jose Ortiz | Chad Brown 

The horse I only half-jokingly declared the Derby winner after his maiden win last year hasn’t quite reached those heights, to say the least. He won a brace of Grade 1s after that, allowing me to feel smart for a second, but his only win since came in a second-tier Travers prep at Saratoga. They took a shot with him in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens, and he ran with credit there, sticking on well enough late, though he looked outclassed by the brilliance Patch Adams showed. Here’s the good news: the Dirt Mile is a race for horses who are slightly outclassed by proper Grade 1/Grade 1+ types and given that he goes with a chance. There are questions to answer here but I could see him running a career best and if he does, he can win as the potential best closer if the pace is strong. 

#9 TOUCH OF DESTINY 

Luis Caceres | Mike McCarthy 

Unbeaten Uruguayan import who comes here having won all of his six starts in increasing dominant fashion. Very hard to get a handle on that form but it’s interesting that a shrewdie like McCarthy, who has won this before, pitches him into this company and he’s been doing some pleasing things in the morning. Massive ask to win his on his US debut off a break but you are getting a huge number on him if you think he’s up to it.

#10 WHITE ABARRIO

Irad Ortiz | Saffie Joseph Jr.

Charismatic gray has a bit of an all-or-nothing profile. The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner has run 109+ speed figures twice and that’s something no one else in that field can say. The Jockey Club Gold Cup can basically be ignored as there was that wild incident early on and he lost all chance from there. Having said that, I didn’t expect anything from him there off the two just OK previous runs, both fourths with good figs in Grade 1s. Back in January when he won the Pegasus with a 109, you’d have thought he’d be odds-on here (in truth, you’d have expected him to be headed to the Classic). He looks about a 10-1 shot to me and that’s what he currently is with the bookmakers in the UK.