Horse-by-horse-guide: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

By Peter Fornatale

It is Aidan O’Brien’s world - we’re just living in it. That’s certainly been the case in the past three editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (12.25am) - live on Sky Sports Racing - where Victoria Road, Unquestionable and Henri Matisse have all been victorious for Ballydoyle. O’Brien brings a strong challenge once again in 2025 as he looks to make it four wins on the bounce in this Grade 1 - will he succeed once again?

Let’s go through the form horse by horse…

#1 HEEERE'S JOHNNY

Jockey: Javier Castellano | Trainer: Raymond Handal

Probably the best maiden in training in the US currently, having failed to win any of his first four starts. Has been placed at stakes level on his last two runs, improving his Beyers (speed figure) each time. He was no match for Final Score in the With Anticipation but did give the re-opposing Bottas a real race in the Pilgrim, closing steadily to fail by just a head. Has the potential to move forward again given his profile but it’s no easy task to win your maiden at Grade 1 level. Hunch plan for fans of The Shining.

#2 STREET BEAST

Luan Machado | Ben Colebrook

Late foal who seems to be getting better and better. Took his maiden and relished the mile distance last time out at Kentucky Downs when romping home at Listed level, clocking an 81 Beyer in the process. Clearly suited by the strong pace that day, but I’m not sure the nature of this race is going to play to his strengths as much.

#3 OUTFIELDER

David Egan | Wesley Ward

Highly-regarded sort who bolted up on debut at short odds. Was sent straight for a European Group 1 on his second start and ran a remarkable race in the circumstances given that he was coming off three-month break, was shipping, and had less experience than some top-class rivals that included Gstaad. He tried to make the running that day and was ultimately swamped, though he did box on well. Has had one run since in which he landed an allowance race on dirt with a bit up his sleeve, despite having raced three-wide throughout. Was strong at the line there but does have stamina to prove given his high cadence - 2.52 strides per second on his most recent run, according to the At The Races data - although he may be able to eke it out around this sharp track, while his tactical pace should have him in this from the start.

#4 THIRD BEER

Antonio Fresu | Tim Yakteen

Finished just in behind Stark Contrast in the Grade 3 Zuma Beach on just his second start, and he did so at least a little bit against the flow of things. The race didn’t come back great on the clock though, and I’d have liked to see him finish up a little faster in order to give him an in-the-frame chance in a salty race like this.

#5 LET’S BE FRANK

Joel Rosario | Mike Maker

Another contender to be the best maiden in training, although he actually finished behind Heeere’s Johnny last time out, so hard to rate him over that rival. Has had half the runs that his rival’s had though, so scope to continue improving, and he’s already taken one big step forward following a promising debut over an inadequate six furlongs back in September. Looked to run the best late splits in the Pilgrim last time out, off fractions that weren’t furious, and he could step up again here with speed to run at. But he’ll need to.

#6 NORTH COAST

Dylan McMonagle | Joseph O’Brien

Looked green when beaten by Daytona at Naas, but he proved his ability to act on a sharp, left-handed track when bolting up in the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown (main rival looked to run below form) and showed good tactical pace in the process. Well behind Gstaad in the National Stakes last time out but was off a break there, and he pressed the pace into the wind, while the ground may also have been soft enough for him. He’s a potentially-interesting longshot at about 20 times the price of the favourite.

#7 GORDON PASS

Irad Ortiz Jr. | William Walden

Achieved some lowly figures at Horseshoe Indianapolis, first when making a promising debut and then when stepping forward to land his maiden at the second time of asking. Appeared to step up significantly on that effort when producing a nice closing effort to run into third in the Bourbon at Keeneland on his most recent start, adding 22 points to his previous best Beyer of 50. Clearly going the right way but will need another big step up just to match the best of his compatriots, never mind the best Europeans.

#8 STARK CONTRAST

Kazushi Kimura | Michael McCarthy

Some promise on debut over six furlongs on dirt but has found his niche routing on turf. Won his maiden before going on to win the Zuma Beach last time out, with Third Beer a length back in second. Had a lovely trip around that day but a 71 Beyer leaves him with plenty of work to do. He’s in the right hands to continue to move forward on his third try going long and has a chance to make the frame at big odds over a course we know he likes.

#9 ARGOS

Flavien Prat | Riley Mott

Debut winner that closed nicely into third on his second start in Listed company over six and a half furlongs. Took his form and figures to the next level in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine next time out when upped to a mile, scoring by a head from the late-closing Wild Desert. He was settled in midfield off a strong pace and managed to save ground on the rail all the way from stall 1 before unleashing his finishing kick to lead close home, finding more when Wild Desert came to him. Had a much better trip than his rival in that contest and would be far from certain to uphold the form, but Wild Desert isn’t here and Argos is a likeable horse with proven talent.

#10 ARDISIA

Oisin Murphy | Hugo Palmer

Will be having his 11th start of the season here. Ran well at a big price in the Ascot conditions race for two-year-olds on Champions Day. That race might be a little better than its Class 2 status suggests - and this horse has done nothing but improve since being gelded - but this is a big jump up on a short rest and the mile distance certainly looks a major question mark.

#11 TURF STAR 

Tyler Gaffalione | Graham Motion

Landed his maiden at the second time of asking under Frankie Dettori at Kentucky Downs before stepping up in class in the Bourbon at Keeneland last time out, running a gallant second behind Final Score. Chance wasn’t helped by having to switch late there but had been plugging away for a while without looking like going past, while a 74 Beyer leaves him with a lot of improvement needed here.

#12 BOTTAS

Manny Franco | Miguel Clement

Impressive winner of the Pilgrim Stakes, where he closed well to win in what was just an even pace and showed a good attitude in the lane. The 80 Beyer Speed Figure he earned there will need to see significant improvement if he’s going to step up and win a race like this. Having said that, the late pace he showed hints at further ability, and he’s in good hands to continue to move forward.

#13 HEY NAY NAY

Hector Berrios | John Sadler

Likely pace angle here, having won a Listed stakes over five furlongs two starts back in a fast time, with his 82 Beyer the best in the field. Stretched out to a mile over this course and distance last time out and managed to carry his speed to victory, tracking the pace initially before leading at the top of the lane and kicking clear. He was never seriously threatened after that, and I like that he had a good kick off a decent gallop. However, these west coast turf juveniles look just okay on the clock, while the figure there was only 78 - I think a good European runs him down easily enough off similar fractions.

#14 GSTAAD

Christophe Soumillon | Aidan O’Brien

Awesome winner of the Coventry back at Royal Ascot, so we know he handles firm ground. Has been mildly disappointing in the three runs since, just from the fact that he hasn’t won as favourite each time, but they were still big runs against quality opposition. Would seem to give the Ballydoyle team a very solid shot at a Juvenile Turf/Juvenile Fillies’ Turf double two years running. Connections have frequently mentioned that he is a big horse and that he is yet to run around a bend, so he does have that to prove around Del Mar’s tight turns. Late defections of Wild Desert and Humidity, both of whom were pre-entered, make this a much easier assignment, and his B-race probably still wins this.

#15 CARO BUONO

Jose Ortiz | Leonard Powell

Racing as an also-eligible and will get in if there are any scratches ahead of race day. Disappointed as favourite in the Zuma Beach when he emptied out like a drain. Improved nicely late on his Stateside debut but there's really nothing in his form, either here or in France, that suggests he'll be up for a challenge like this.