Horse-by-horse-guide: Breeders' Cup Mile

By Peter Fornatale

A few years back, a radio interviewer asked me to name my favourite race. It was a regular question the host would pose and the typical answers were the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont, or the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I was the first guest to ever to name the Breeders’ Cup Mile as my favourite. I love the international element, and I love the race as a test of a good horse. It’s a mile, of course, but it often plays out like a sprint – the competitors get no break at any stage. This year’s running is a typically competitive renewal, with the market led by last year’s third, Notable Speech. Let’s take a look at the field from the rail out.
 

#1 ONE STRIPE

Juan Hernandez | Graham Motion

Multiple Grade 1 winner in his native South Africa, albeit on yielding ground, and didn’t run too badly behind Notable Speech in the Woodbine Mile, boxing on well enough from an tricky position. Hard to see him making up the five-length deficit on that rival, however, and needs more.

#2 NOTABLE SPEECH

William Buick | Chalie Appleby

Something of a disappointing record this season in terms of actual wins, but upon closer scrutiny you realise he’s not really had a lot go right for him. He probably wasn’t on the right part of the track in either the Lockinge or the Queen Anne, and that was certainly the case in the July Cup where he was also too close to a strong pace when dropping back to sprinting. He was desperately unlucky in the Jacques le Marois, throwing in some superb late splits to just fail, and showed his true worth and customary acceleration in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last time. Looks to be coming to the boil at just the right time for connections who excel in this type of contest and surely the one to beat, but he is beholden to luck, which he didn’t really have when finishing third in this last year. A major contender, no doubt, but perhaps not the standout the current market suggests. The draw is perfect for him.

#3 SAHLAN

Mickael Barzalona | Francis-Henri Graffard

He was better than he looked in the Group 1 French Guineas and the listed Prix de Saint-Patrick, the latter of which saw him race against an inside bias. Back to winning ways next time out and made a huge leap forward on his most recent start to hold off the late rally of Rosallion, having got first run to land the Group 1 Prix du Moulin. Lightly raced sort who appears to be improving all the time and has plenty of upside, although he’s unproven on very fast ground and around a left-handed track, while his form also requires a little bit of improvement. He’s a contender who should be around 6-1.

#4 THE LION IN WINTER

Christophe Soumillon | Aidan O’Brien

One time Derby favourite who flopped in the Dante and ran abysmally in the Derby itself. Has reinvented himself as a miler but once again ran poorly in the Jacques le Marois prior to two better efforts most recently. He was third behind Sahlan in the Moulin and only had 100-1 shot Cicero’s Gift in front in the QEII on Champions Day when he may have been on the best part of the track. Something of a nearly horse and I don’t think his form is good enough to win this, particularly given he’s now right towards the head of the betting. An edgy and sweaty sort, I’m not sure how he’ll handle the hubbub at Del Mar either, although on the plus side he should get a good trip as a prominent racer with a great draw.

#5 PROGRAM TRADING

Flavien Prat | Chad Brown

Dual Grade 1 winner as a three-year-old and also scored at that level on his four-year-old debut before disappointing in the Manhattan. Presumably wasn’t right there as missed over a year of action following that defeat prior to returning with a fine second in a listed stakes when closing nicely to miss by a neck off steady enough fractions. Showed he is back to his very best in the Grade 1 Coolmore Mile Stakes last time out with a good closing effort from off the pace, a run that should tee him up perfectly for this. Talented performer whose best Beyer of 102 wouldn’t be far off winning a race of this nature.

#6 GRAN ORIENTE

Hector Berrios | Jose Alvarez

Snapped an eight-race losing run in his native Chile when taking the Group 1 Premio Club Hipico de Santiago over 10 furlongs back in May. Was switched to turf there after racing on dirt for most of his career, coming home 0.75 lengths to the good. Not been seen since that victory and he would seem to have an almost impossible task to beat the very best milers on the planet off a five-month break, particularly as he doesn’t appear to be a standout performer in his native land.

#7 JOHANNES

Umberto Rispoli | Tim Yakteen

Five-year-old son of Nyquist has had a light campaign in 2025 as he bids to go one better than when second in the Mile last year. Presumably in need of the run when a disappointing ninth in the Fourtstardave, he showed that effort was all wrong when landing the City of Hope in dominant fashion. He travelled strongly through that contest and quickly put the race to bed when asked. And he did so despite having to swing very wide, looking right back to his very best. A horse who basically always runs a huge race whenever he steps onto the track, he has recorded a 100+ Beyer in six of his last seven starts and is probably reaching the peak of his powers now. Proven on the track, tactical versatile with a good turn of foot, third off a break and ready to fire a big shot, and arguably has the best bit of form in the race from last year’s version of this – what’s not to like here?

#8 FORMIDABLE MAN

John Velazquez | Mike McCarthy

Loves it in California having won his last seven starts in the Golden State, including twice at Grade 1 level in the Hollywood Derby and the Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Scored over this course and distance on his most recent outing, landing the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile with something to spare. Hasn’t been beating anything like the quality he will face at the Breeders’ Cup but he does have some nice wins quickening up well off slow paces so we know he’ll be suited by the demands of this race. Ultimately needs a little more, however, having yet to run faster than a 98 Beyer.

#9 ARGINE

Frankie Dettori  | Mitsumasa Nakauchida

Like most of the Japanese horses that have run solely in their home country, he is very hard to weigh up. Narrowly touched off on his seasonal debut before running a fine fourth in the Grade 1 Victoria Mile in May, beaten just half-a-length. Wasn’t seen again until August where he returned at Sapporo to win the Hokkaido Shimbun Hai Queen Stakes by a head. Looked to either be tying up or pulling himself up late on there and he would have been beaten in another stride. Respected as all runners from this country are, but looks to have double-figures to find on ratings and minor honours are probably the best he can realistically hope for.

#10 JONQUIL

Colin Keane | Andrew Balding

French Guineas runner-up got a bit lost after that run with connections fiddling about with trips including dropping to sprinting, a move that didn’t really work out. Defied market weakness to land the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood and closed strongly off a hot pace in the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland last time when behind Rhetorical and Program Trading. Was drawn widest of all in stall 11 that day, which probably necessitated the hold-up ride he was given, and might be able to close the gap on those rivals with a better post position. Needs more than what he's shown to win a race of this nature, but he’s a late season three-year-old whose form is a bit better than it looks.

#11 RHETORICAL

Irad Ortiz | William Walden

Talented New York-bred has only tasted defeat once in a light career, steadily ascending the grades, and he made light work of the jump from his own kind to Grade 1 company last time when winning the Coolmore Mile. His 101 Beyer there was very good for a horse having just his sixth start and he looked like he could go faster there having chased a quick pace, particularly as his numbers have improved with basically every start. Tactically versatile but seems like a sort that will get a perfect tracking trip off a steady pace and looks a massive player with the prospect of even more to come.

#12 GAS ME UP

Jose Ortiz | Kevin Attard

Canadian runner rode a fantastic setup in the Grade 2 King Edward over the E.P. Taylor turf course to a closing win. Moved up to Grade 1 company for his next start on the decidedly tighter two-turn inner turf, he ran a very even race, getting third, 3.5 lengths behind Mile favourite Notable Speech. That was his career best speed figure and it was just a 94, so it’s tough to make an in-the-frame case for him here.

#13 QIRAT

Rossa Ryan | Ralph Beckett

Freak winner of the Sussex Stakes when pacemaking in a crazy race, holding off Rosallion to win at 150/1. Limitations were exposed in the Group 1 City Of York Stakes and Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein on his last two starts but possibly had excuses with the distance and the ground respectively and he should be well placed, so it’s possible he could outrun big odds again. The draw makes his assignment a little trickier as he’ll need to use extra petrol to clear.