Horse-by-horse-guide: FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile

By Peter Fornatale

Ted Noffey comes into the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile (11.45pm) - live on Sky Sports Racing - as one of the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend, but there will also be plenty of market support for Brant. The latter has genuine credentials as well as the legendary trainer Bob Baffert on his side, who has won this race six times. But this race isn’t necessarily a match between those two, as I have my eye on one who could also make the frame at a price.

Let’s have a look at the whole field…

#1 INTREPIDO

Jockey: Hector Berrios | Trainer: Jeff Mullins

His performance in the American Pharoah was like something out of a superhero film - a lone battler facing four assailants and managing to prevail. I’m joking, but it was impressive to see him fight off the flotilla of four Baffert runners in the spot, a race the latter had won 13 times. Intrepido is an improving sort and is probably a bit better than the 87 Beyer (speed figure) he earned in the Pharoah, but that still leaves a lot of room between him and the likes of Ted Noffey.

#2 BLACKOUT TIME

Irad Ortiz Jr. | Ken McPeek

I thought he was pretty much the only reasonable alternative to Ted Noffey in the Futurity, but I was very surprised by the flood of money that came for him - in the end he was 6-4 into the teeth of the odds-on favourite. This suggests that he’s been very impressive in the mornings and has talent beyond what’s on the page. And what’s on the page is already very impressive. He won his maiden in a solid time at Ellis two races back and he stepped up at Grade 1 level in the aforementioned Futurity, running a good second to Ted Noffey and giving the visual impression of a horse who could come forward yet again with the way he was finishing. He’ll have to reverse form with that rival once again, and that won’t be easy, but it feels likely to me that the Futurity will be the key form line in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

#3 MR. A. P.

Antonio Fresu | Vladimir Cerin

He just about scraped home in a maiden race at 3-5, but at least that effort was going a mile. Looking at his sectionals there, I’m not sure the added ground will be to his liking, and we have the obvious questions about class and speed as well. Looks like a big longshot.

#4 COMPORT

Tyler Gaffalione | Eddie Kenneally

He was bet into favouritism in the Iroquois but was no match for Spice Runner, despite having an easy trip. Spice Runner’s subsequent flop in the Breeders’ Futurity did nothing for that form. Comport’s big win at Ellis at Listed level also came courtesy of an easy go on the front end, but he simply doesn’t look fast or classy enough at this stage to tackle this level of opposition.

#5 CIVIL LIBERTY

Frankie Dettori | Doug O’Neill

Would have loomed a very short price in a maiden race but connections instead elect to be the longest shot on the board in the Juvenile. In theory, he earned his place with his okay third to Brant in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity, but his subsequent drubbing in the mile-plus American Pharoah made me think they might seek an easier spot. There’s no real angle for me to suggest he can make the frame against these, but it’s a short enough field and someone has to run third and fourth.

#6 LITMUS TEST

Jose Ortiz | Bob Baffert

He was the third-place finisher behind Ted Noffey and Blackout Time in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, a race where he made the running and went away rather tamely. I don’t have a lot of hope for him to better either of those rivals based on his previous races - a fourth in the Del Mar Futurity and a grind-y win in a maiden race with questionable form. These are two-year-olds, so of course he could improve second time going long, but it’s not something I’m interested in betting on.

#7 BRANT

Flavien Prat | Bob Baffert

This $3 million son of Gun Runner looks every inch the future superstar for Zedan Stables at this stage. Broke the 100 Beyer Speed Figure barrier on start one at Del Mar, a race that produced good form, and came right back to win the seven-furlong Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. The time of the latter run was still good, though regressive, but the form has worked out poorly, with five starts from it and no wins. On his breeding, he is supposed to thrive going further, but it’s always a little tricky to go long for the first time while moving way up in class. All six of Baffert’s previous Juvenile winners had a good race going at least a mile. Prince Of Monaco, Baffert’s best two-year-old in 2023, had similar preparations to Brant and was off the board. Brant is certainly a contender based on his brilliance, but I am tempted to shy away in terms of making him my main selection.

#8 TED NOFFEY

John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher

Simply put, Spendthrift Farm colour-bearer Ted Noffey’s past performance cut simply looks like one of a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner. An impressive maiden score in a good maiden at Saratoga, followed by wins in the prestigious Grade 1 Hopeful and the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. All three of these races were smiled upon by the clock, and I love that he’s already passed the two-turn test. His combination of tactical speed and finish should make him pretty bomb proof in terms of trip. Looms the shortest-priced favourite of the weekend, with this perfect draw outside of main rival Brant.