Horse-by-horse-guide: John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

By Peter Fornatale

This is a race whose profile has changed in recent years. In eight of the last 10 editions of the Juvenile Fillies Turf, a North American-based contender has won, but the race went to Ballydoyle in both 2022 and 2024 with Meditate and Lake Victoria, respectively. That more recent trend might be the one to follow as Aidan O’Brien has shown he is not afraid to send his better two-year-olds to this race, something that was not the case during the run of North American dominance.

O’Brien’s got a great chance to make it three from four, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves as we take a look at the field from the rail out.

#1 ULTIMATE LOVE

Jockey: John Velazquez | Trainer: Michael Trombetta

Recorded 81 and 80 Beyers at Laurel the last twice when winning an allowance race and then a Listed stakes by wide margins. Clearly has far too much ability for the horses she has been competing against but it’s hard to know how that translates to competing against some of the best juveniles on the planet. Her Beyers (speed figures) suggest she is at least the match of many of the home side even if her form isn’t quite up there, and you are going to be getting a big number on her if you think she’s got the class to mix it here. Looked more of a grinder to me on her most recent start and I imagine there will be one or two too good for her but she has some each-way appeal for her underrated trainer.

#2 QUEEN OF HAWAII

Dylan McMonagle | Joseph O’Brien

Lightly raced filly who’ll be having just her fourth run here. Not seen since winning at the Curragh in August but did that nicely having raced wide without cover into the wind, quickening well. Form hasn’t really worked out and she has a fair bit to find on ratings, but looks to have some good tools for this race and an emphatic win around Leopardstown suggests this track will very much suit. She’s interesting at a price.

#3 IMAGINATIONTHELADY

Frankie Dettori | Brendan Walsh

This two-from-two runner won at Kentucky Downs on her debut. Has since followed up in the Jessamine where she came from just off the speed to win cosily enough. The Beyer only came back as 73 which would not be good enough, and they were all fairly well bunched in behind, but the two she beat are both entered in this and had looked promising sorts beforehand, so maybe that form is better than it looks. Needs more but has talent.

#4 INFINITE SKY

Flavien Prat | Brad Cox

One of the horses that finished behind Imaginationthelady last time out having also been a winner at Kentucky Downs prior. Didn’t have a good trip relative to Imaginationthelady and couldn’t really uncoil until quite late having had to switch, although I don’t think her effort off the bridle suggested she was unlucky to any meaningful degree. Needs a fair chunk of improvement.

#5 FINAL ACCORD

Jose Ortiz | Mark Casse

Well backed to win under a five-pound bug rider on debut over five furlongs at Woodbine, this filly was chucked into stakes company next time out in the Grade 3 Matron and answered every call. Towards the rear off a good pace, she initially looked a bit green when asked for her effort at the top of the stretch but really got the hang on things and came through strongly late to win with any amount in hand. The form doesn’t look worth much relative to the European runners, but she’s clearly got a lot of ability and shapes as though she may relish a mile, in which case her speed should stand her in very good stead. Her 79 Beyer with scope for better suggests she is very much a leading light amongst the home team.

#6 SWITCH IN LOVE

Ryusei Sakai | Yoshito Yahagi

Japanese filly who was a winner at Chukyo on debut prior to finishing a 3.5-lengths second at Hanshin to Alankar. That rival is a daughter of a Japanese Oaks winner so is bred to be good, but it’s very hard to get a handle on what she has achieved there. Trainer knows what is required to win Breeders’ Cup races, but I’d be surprised if this horse is a good as the best of these based on what we’ve seen to date.

#7 CELEBRITY WARRIOR

Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher

Maiden daughter of Saxon Warrior was second to Ultimate Love in the Selima at Laurel in just her second career start. She obviously has talent but seems like a clear case of too much too soon.

#8 BRAVE DEB

Mirco Demuro | Richard Mandella

Unbeaten filly who looks the best of the locals. Has raced prominent near fast paces to date but has had enough in reserve to hold off the closers. Clearly has plenty of tactical speed and talent, but here’s the rub: her best Beyer, which she recorded in the Surfer Girl last time out, is just 64, so she has a lot to find with her North American compatriots, never mind genuine European Group 1 horses.

#9 TIME TO DREAM

Irad Ortiz | Todd Pletcher

Looked a very good horse on her first two starts winning by wide margins, including taking a minor Stakes at Saratoga by open lengths. Was only third best in the Jessamine but that perhaps doesn’t tell the full story as she ended up a long way back, found trouble, and could then never really unleash as she was hanging and being leant on by a rival. She found plenty when she did get out of trouble and her jockey was finally able to get her moving forward, and shaped at least second best. She might have given the winner more of a race with a clean run and I could see her reversing that form with Imaginationthelady and Infinite Sky, but she’ll need to really step up to win a race like this. I wouldn’t rule her out but others appeal more.

#10 BALANTINA

Oisin Murphy | Donnacha O’Brien

Sole win came in a maiden back in May and she has plied her trade exclusively in Group company since then. Had a good trip from off the speed in the Albany when finishing third and was again suited by the way the race was run in the Prix Six Perfections at Deauville, just touched off by the talented Green Spirit. She was last seen towards the end of August when finishing fifth in the Deubtante at the Curragh. Unlike her previous two races, things did not pan out for her here, as only the front two ever mattered in a strange race. She did some decent splits from 3out to 1out but that took its toll and her last furlong was slow. Has at least a stone to find and hard to fancy her to do so off the back of a break and a moderate effort.

#11 GROUND SUPPORT

Adam Beschizza | Kelsey Danner

Huge price on debut for a valuable Kentucky Downs maiden but that didn’t stop her from causing a huge shock before she stepped up in grade to tackle the Miss Grillo. Despite being relatively unfancied in the betting again, she managed to work her way to the lead after a quarter mile and her rivals simply couldn’t match her gears in the straight, as she took a couple of lengths out of the field when asked to quicken, after which she was never getting caught. She had a pretty decent trip there but seemed to clearly have the most ability of that talented field, and I liked the way she ground it out. A 78 Beyer needs a bit of work, but the Miss Grillo has typically been a very good trial so she goes with an on-the-board chance.

#12 PACIFIC MISSION

Colin Keane | Andrew Balding

She showed minor promise at best on debut and seemed relatively unfancied at Kempton next time out when sent off 11-2 behind a well-backed Gosden debutante that she ultimately beat with ease. Stepped up to Group 2 company for her most recent start, she ran an absolute blinder in the May Hill, racing without cover from the wind but travelling as well as anything. She still looked a bit green when asked for her effort, but made the lead and was only run down by the smart Aylin who had received a perfect ride in the conditions. I think she shaped like the best horse in that race and looks like a type who is improving rapidly, while I like her breeding for an easy mile and think she’s shown some nice pace. Big chance and may be underestimated. This isn’t the draw you’d have chosen for her but it will also contribute to the price.

#13 PRECISE

Christophe Soumillon | Aidan O’Brien

Looks to be the best juvenile filly at Ballydoyle based on her recent exploits, having won her last four starts, including when bolting up in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile last time out. Handled the sharp track at Goodwood extremely well despite a bad trip which suggests she’s likely to be fine around these sharp turns and hard to argue any horse in here has more ability than her. I have two concerns, however. Firstly, she’s not going to be much of a price. Secondly, she does tend to hit a little flat spot before she takes off which might prove problematic around Del Mar. Her best effort last time was off a strong pace over a testing mile and Aidan O’Brien’s fillies that have won this in the past – Meditate and Lake Victoria – were both coming off sprint preps. With that said, she looks like the best horse here and has a big chance, even with the wide draw.