Horse-by-horse-guide: Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff

By Peter Fornatale

This year’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (9.01pm) - live on Sky Sports Racing - seems more marked by its high-profile defections - Thorpedo Anna chief amongst them - than the fillies who’ve signed up, but it’s not without some star power. Seismic Beauty is an up-and-comer with a big numerical advantage, but she’s never faced a runner as tough and classy as Nitrogen, while others have a chance to step up and surprise as well.

Let’s take a look at the whole field, horse-by-horse…

#1 NITROGEN

Jockey: Jose Ortiz | Trainer: Mark Casse

She’s a really talented dual-surface performer, and while her Spinster was disappointing in the fact that she didn’t win, she was still impressive - trying all the way to the line against an advantaged rival (the official chart caller comment that she “hung” is harsh). She’s got good tactical speed as well as a little bit of finish, and she’s properly battle-tested. All those things make her a leading contender, but she has a tricky draw over this course, and that hurts her chances.

#2 SARAWAK RIM

Irad Ortiz Jr. | Ignacio Correas

A Group 1 winner in her native Argentina and has a fantastic race record, with four wins and a second in five career starts. However, those were short fields and overmatched rivals. She hasn’t run since May either, so this would be a truly remarkable training job. She’s an unknown quantity in here, but my guess is she’ll have plenty to find with the best of these.

#3 CLICQUOT

Flavien Prat | Brendan Walsh

Progressive three-year-old that arrives here after four wins on the bounce, culminating in Grade 1 success last time out in the Cotillion at Parx. She has a nice, tactical running style as well as a little bit of finish, but when you look at her final times - that win last time out was a career-best 92 on the Beyer (speed figure) scale - she might not be quite ready for a race like this.

#4 SCYLLA

Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott

A very talented filly that has gone back and forth between shorter and longer races throughout her career, and it’s interesting that her master conditioner points her here - she was only beaten a length in the Filly & Mare Sprint last year. Her run in the seven-furlong Ballerina two starts back is better than it looked. She really took the race to Hope Road when at a seeming tactical disadvantage. Stretched back out to nine in the Spinster, she ran with credit - beaten less than two lengths with a tough trip. I could see her moving forward in her second race going long this year. Odds of 20-1 are too big, even though she’s seemingly not fast enough.

#5 SCOTTISH LASSIE

Joel Rosario | Jorge Abreu

She disappointed as the favourite in the Grade 1 Cotillion, but that feels forgivable to me - Parx is a track that not every horse likes, and she was probably on a disadvantageous part of the racing strip down on the inside. Her race two starts back was the opposite story, where she seemed to benefit from a track in Saratoga that was favouring her front-running style that day. Still, that was an impressive effort, winning a Grade 1 by 15 lengths and notching a 99 Beyer Speed Figure in a race that’s produced good form. Which run represents the real Scottish Lassie? The answer is probably something in between, and that doesn’t quite feel good enough.

#6 ALICE VERITE

Kyle Frey | Kazuya Nakatake

Finished fourth in the Distaff last year and has only run okay on turf in Japan since. Looked to be building to something when fifth in the Victoria Mile in May but then wasn’t seen until the start of August when eighth in the Hokkaido Shimbun Hai Queen Stakes. Yet to win above Grade 3 company and hard to see her changing that here.

#7 GIN GIN

Luis Saez | Brendan Walsh

Since switched to Brendan Walsh’s barn she’s been on an excellent run of form, culminating with her upset win in the Grade 1 Spinster - a race that history will remember as Thorpedo Anna’s last before retiring to become a broodmare. She won in fine front-running fashion, at a time when her barn was firing on all cylinders, and she was a big price in there. She also appears to just love Keeneland/Kentucky, so we’ll see if she can now take her act on the road. She has to be amongst the leaders in the betting on figures and form, but I don’t fully trust her in this spot.

#8 SEISMIC BEAUTY

J. J. Hernandez | Bob Baffert

In the right year, I might try to really take on a horse like Seismic Beauty. Her past-performance paper, on the surface, is gorgeous. Improving figures and form, great tactical speed, fantastic connections, and a recent Beyer Speed Figure of 110. But I do worry just a little that all three of her efforts have come under favourable circumstances against short fields. In the end, however, I feel almost forced to take a positive view because of the way this race shapes up on paper.

#9 MAJESTIC OOPS

Umberto Rispoli | Dan Ward

A reformed claimer that managed a Grade 1 placing two starts back in the Ballerina behind Scylla. She placed going longer earlier this year at Graded level, but her last race at nine furlongs was extremely dull in the mud. She will be tested for class here, and I doubt she passes.

#10 GUN SONG

Tyler Gaffalione | Mark Hennig

She had a terrific run late last year, when it looked like she’d be a divisional player in ‘25 after going close in the Grade 1 Cotillion and Grade 2 Mother Goose. This year hasn’t gone to plan, however, with four straight losses to start it off, though she did bounce back last time with a perfect-trip win in the Grade 2 Beldame. Still, the 87 figure she earned there won’t have any of these quaking in their metaphorical boots.

#11 DRY POWDER

Antonio Fresu | Chad Summers

Progressive three-year-old that was only beaten a neck in the Grade 1 Cotillion. This will be her first start against her elders, and her career-high Beyer is 91. She’ll need significant improvement as a result, but it isn’t out of the question. Odds of 20-1 are a little big, but not massively so.

#12 DORTH VADER

John Velazquez | George Weaver

A Grade 1-winning five-year-old that ran a career best on the clock last time out in the Personal Ensign, just going down by a nose to future hall-of-famer Thorpedo Anna. The 100 Beyer she ran there gives her a big chance of making the frame in this spot, and she could absolutely win this if Seismic Beauty doesn’t continue her progression. The Florida-bred has long shown her ability to tackle open company, and it’s interesting that George Weaver chose to train her up to this spot, presumably hoping to have her run back the same race she did at Saratoga.

#13 REGALED

Joseph Ramos | Whit Beckman

It’s always great to see lower-profile connections get a chance on the big stage that is the Breeders’ Cup. They paid $300,000 for her, so she was always meant to be good, but it took the switch to the new barn for her career to really start to take off. She smashed her rivals in the Grade 3 Delaware Handicap last time, but that was a short field in the mud. She does possess a nice late kick, and so I can’t rule out an in-the-frame run at a massive price.