Horse-by-horse-guide: Longines Breeders' Cup Turf

By Peter Fornatale

This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is widely regarded is the race of the meeting and one of the best of the century anywhere in the world. But the Breeders’ Cup Turf at 9.41 on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing, is also a fascinating renewal and one of the best, if not the best, I can remember. 

We have the amazing Minnie Hauk, with her Enable-like season, bidding to close out the year on a victorious note. And we also have Rebel’s Romance looking to make Breeders’ Cup history as the first three-time winner of the race. And the contention runs deeper than that. Let’s have a look at each horse in post-position order.

#1 REBEL'S ROMANCE

William Buick | Charlie Appleby

Magnificent seven-year-old who hasn’t lost a step despite his advancing years. Probably unlucky not to finish closer in the King George having beaten Al Riffa easily in the Hardwicke and has won two Group 1 races since. Workmanlike in Germany the first time around, but looked as good as ever in the Joe Hirsch at Belmont most recently, dominating under a fine ride from Frankie Dettori. That 106 Beyer matched his number from last year’s BC Turf win and was only a point below the number he recorded when winning in 2022. No seven-year-old has ever won the Turf, but he bucked the age trend last year and has every chance of doing so again and recording an historic third win in the race. I like that he’s drawn inside of Minnie Hauk.

#2 GOLIATH 

Mickael Barzalona | Francis-Henri Graffard

Last year’s King George winner has had an up and down campaign, having run poorly twice in Group 1 company either side of better efforts in Group 3s. He put things right in the Grosser Preis von Baden last time out when he looked to very much have the run of the race, leading at a steady pace and then coming across to grab the near side rail, which looked to be an edge. That form looks around half a stone below his best but it showed that he has plenty of fizz left and he may be building towards something better.

#3 AMILOC

Rossa Ryan | Ralph Beckett

I’ve always been a huge fan of this horse and was really impressed with the speed he showed at the start of his three-year-old year, winning over a mile at Goodwood when really, on breeding, that trip should have been far too short. He’s predictably thrived over farther, most notably when a cosy winner of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot back in June. However, his stamina didn’t seem to stretch to 14 furlongs last time out in the Irish St Leger and he was quite tame in the final furlong there having chased a fast early pace. He moved through that contest like a good horse though, and I think it’s a defeat you can easily forgive, and looking at it another way, Timeform consider it a career-best so maybe you don’t need to forgive it at all. I expect he’ll step forward from that race in fitness terms as it was his first run for three months and it should tee him up nicely for this. Tactical speed and running style should ensure a prominent sit here and we know he handles sharp tracks very well even if he hasn’t gone left-handed. Progressive and plenty to like at big odds each way.

#4 REDISTRICTING

Flavien Prat | Chad Brown

Improving sort who ran consecutive triple-digit Beyers at Monmouth prior to chasing home Rebel’s Romance last time out. Was off a short break there so might step forward a little but will need to have done to erode a 3.5 length deficit. Looks the best of the home team.

#5 REBEL RED

Irad Ortiz Jr. | Cherie DeVaux

Ran well behind El Cordobes in the Sword Dancer but last of five in the Joe Hirsch on his most recent start. Yet to win a graded stakes and hard to see that changing here.

#6 WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE

Frankie Dettori | James Owen

Talented juvenile who had a mixed start to the season but has found his feet for a trainer having a breakout year. Looked unlucky not to win the Gordon Stakes where the flag start did him no favours and showed his class in the Nashville Derby last time, grinding things out resolutely over shorter. Runner up was a Grade 1 winner on dirt having a first try on grass, so maybe you can be positive about that form. Still, has ground to make up with both Amiloc and El Cordobes and I think minor honours are likely to be the best he can hope for.

#7 SILAWI 

James Doyle | Hamad Al-Jehani

Took advantage of a good front-running ride and the favoured rail to win a Group 3 at Windsor two back and produced another career-best to break through at Grade 1 level in the Canadian International last time. Clearly improved for gelding having started the season rated just 92 but needs another chunk of progress to figure in the finish here.

#8 MINNIE HAUK

Christophe Soumillon | Aidan O’Brien

Star three-year-old filly who had swept all before her prior to finishing a gallant second in the Arc, pulling clear with the unexposed Daryz. Clearly the one to beat off the back of that effort, even allowing for her being favoured by a low draw on the day. Fast ground and a sharp left-handed track are no issue whatsoever – she’s won around Epsom and Chester – but she probably had a hard enough race last time out and a speed test around here might not be totally her bag. In the best possible hands, however, and clearly has the best form, so should be hard to beat getting the weight allowances.

#9 GOLD PHOENIX 

Umberto Rispoli | Philip D’Amato

Talented performer who was a staying-on fourth in this last year having filled the same spot in 2023 too. Running to a similar sort of level this time around, winning the John Henry Turf Championship on his most recent start having also scored in the Del Mar Handicap prior. The high 90s Beyers he ran there need work and hard to see him landing a second Grade 1 at the age of seven. But I don’t mind the idea at all of building a few trifecta and superfecta bets where he has to be third or fourth.

#10 EL CORDOBES 

Billy Loughnane | Charlie Appleby

Recipient of an excellent ride when beating Wimbledon Hawkeye at Newmarket three back and gained a first top level success on his next start when beating Rebel Red in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga. Held behind Rebel’s Romance next time out in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and ultimately looks the yard’s second string, though the race could be run to suit his closing style if the top two in the market engage a long way out.

#11 RASHABAR

Joe Leavy | Brian Meehan

Trainer knows what it takes to win this race and this horse is tough if nothing else. Had a long season without winning, however, and his form needs to jump forward another stone for stepping up to this distance, which looks most unlikely.

#12 TAWNY PORT

Manny Franco | Miguel Clement

Progressive sort who fired his peak effort to chase home Silawi at Woodbine last time out. Deep closer who will need a furious pace to run at – there’s not much pace on paper here – and is likely going to have to sprint past some of the best middle-distance turf horses on the planet. Seems unlikely, given his overall profile.

#13 HILL ROAD

David Egan | Chad Brown

Promising two-year-old who finished third, staying on, in the Juvenile last year. Had a Classic campaign on the back of that and a win in the Peter Pan, but cut little ice in the Belmont and was well beaten in the Jim Dandy. Two runs on turf since have been moderate with the latest coming out at just an 82 Beyer, and he has ground to make up with Wimbledon Hawkeye on their Nashville Derby running. Hard to fancy.

#14 ETHICAL DIAMOND

Dylan McMonagle | Willie Mullins

It’s not often you run in a Punchestown Maiden hurdle and a Breeders’ Cup Turf in the same year, but that highlights just how versatile and progressive this horse is. He’s excelled on the flat this summer, winning with loads in hand at Ascot having had a perfect trip and then overcoming a three-wide position, albeit with cover, to win the Ebor off a mark of 104. Grabbed the favoured near side rail there but the race was over quickly when he was asked, shooting clear inside the final furlong. Shouldn’t have a problem dropping back in distance, even on this sharp track, but clearly has a lot more on his plate against genuine Group 1 horses.