Horse-by-horse-guide: Netjets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

By Peter Fornatale

My general idea in this year’s Juvenile Fillies is to try to back something at a bit of a price. It’s not that the favourites are bad – Tommy Jo, Percy’s Bar, and the Baffert tandem all have valid claims – but looking at where they are in the market and the historical profile of this race, I am OK going out on a limb.

But which longshot should we pick? Let’s go through the field and find out.

#1 IRON ORCHARD

Jockey: Joel Rosario | Trainer: Danny Gargan

It’s a great year for New York-breds at the Breeders’ Cup between this runner and Rhetorical in the Mile, both of whom go with chances. Iron Orchard punched her ticket with a stellar run in the Grade 1 Frizette, a run I mark up a little bit. She was actually pretty close to the fast pace in there before settling under Rosario only to unleash a sweet little flourish late to get the money. The Beyer speed figure was light – just a 79 – and that leaves her something to find with the best of these but she’s a contender given my questions about those at the top of the market.  

#2 BOTTLE OF ROUGE

Mike Smith | Bob Baffert

It came as a surprise to me that Bob Baffert has only won this race twice and hasn’t been victorious since 2007. He definitely goes with a solid chance to get back among the Juvenile Fillies winners between this runner and stablemate Explora. They ran one-two with Bottle of Rouge on top in the Debutante, with Explora coming back to win the Oak Leaf while this gal sat on the sidelines. Based on her sire, BC Classic winner Vino Rosso, you’d think the distance would be OK, but the dam side does look a little sprint-y. Perhaps the bigger concern is that she’s yet to crack an 80 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale. She offers more questions than answers for me.  

#3 MEANING

Umberto Rispoli | Michael McCarthy

The secret was out on this Eclipse Thoroughbred colourbearer on debut as she went off at 1-5. She made no mistake in that Los Al maiden, pummeling an overmatched field. There has been a lot of interest in her early on in the markets – early in the betting there were quotes as low as 7-1. That level of exuberance is reminiscent to me of the tulip bubble. We’re talking about a filly, as talented as she might be, who is facing winners for the first time exiting a maiden where she ran a 70 Beyer against a field where four have run back and none have won. She could be a lot better going longer and the market signal is screaming out her name so I’d start to get interested around 15-1. I look forward to seeing her in the flesh and she might be a better one to back on the tote if that’s an option.  

#4 PERCY’S BAR

Luan Machado | Ben Colebrook

Crossed the wire first in the Grade 1 Alcibiades in a game, frontrunning effort but was taken down for interference. She’ll have to deal with Tommy Jo once again as well as speedy local rival Explora. I wonder if a change to closing tactics might be in order? She has to be a contender around 5-1 on form but her high figure is just an 80 and that might not be quite enough for me.  

#5 TOMMY JO

John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher

Spendthrift Farm colourbearer looked like a potential odds-on shot for this off her first two runs. She ran a couple of 85 Beyer Speed Figures (fast enough to go close in a typical Juvenile Fillies) and her romp in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga was impressive. Stretched out next time to a two-turn mile-and-a-sixteenth at Keeneland, she simply wasn’t as good. She stalked the fast pace set by Percy’s Bar through fast fractions, was interfered with while making her move, and eventually awarded the race in the steward’s room. I just didn’t love how she finished up in there, and her final figure of 75, after the brilliance she’d shown sprinting, suggests to me that she might be better going shorter.  

#6 LA VILLE LUMIERE

Kizushi Kimura | Michael McCarthy  

She made a nice middle move into the frame in the Oak Leaf at a massive price, but that wasn’t the strongest trial race and she was still beaten five lengths. It’s not easy to conjure reasons why she’ll be able to reverse the form with the two opponents she faced there and the competition gets even tougher now. Looks a big longshot.  

#7 EXPLORA

J.J. Hernandez | Bob Baffert

She’s a candidate for favouritism here. Her win in the Grade 2 Oak Leaf was comprehensive and the form has since been franked by stablemate Himika. Her debut run was fabulous and she ran a speed figure of 88, faster than the par for this race, which is 86. She’s got to reverse form with Bottle of Rouge, who bested her in the Grade 1 Debutante, but it should be noted that that was a surprise (the winner was 9-1 to Explora’s 3-5). And the winner hasn’t run since so she must answer the distance question. Explora is a clear and obvious contender but nothing like a certainty.    

#8 SUPER CORREDORA

Hector Berrios | John Sadler

Recent maiden winner dominated a field on the front end going a mile at Santa Anita. That was an easy trip but I do like the way she finished, both visually and on the clock. Further improvement will be required but I will be keeping an eye on her in a race where I don’t think the favourites are invincible. I would consider her in the 20-1 range.  

#9 LA WALLY

Antonio Fresu | Mark Glatt

Progressive daughter of Constitution has been in behind Explora in the last two starts, and while she has lengths to find on that rival based on the Oak Leaf, it’s not crazy to think she might have more upside still. She must prove that she’s fast enough – career high fig is just 76 – but there’s a world where in this bigger field she can employ proper hold up tactics and come running late. She’s an interesting each-way possibility at double-digit odds.