LAST YEAR'S WINNER - SIERRA LEONE

• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Jockey: Flavien Prat
• Owner: Brant, Peter M , Magnier, Mrs John, Tabor, Michael, Smith, Derrick, Westerberg and Smith, Brook T
• US Tote Win: $15.80
• BETTING STATS
• 2007-2024
• Favourites: 5/18 (27.8%) | Level stake loss -20.9%
• Odds-on Favs: 2/4 (50%) | Level stake loss -21.5%
• Median winning price: 4.1-1
• 2008-2024 in California
• Favourites: 2/11 (18.2%) | Level stake loss -32.7%
• Odds-on Favs: 0/2 (0%) | Level stake loss -100%
• Median winning price: 4-1

By Barry Faulkner

Some US Hall of Famers have tasted defeat in this. Curlin (2008), Zenyatta (2010), California Chrome (2016) and Arrogate (2017) were all beaten, although three of them had won it in the previous year before coming up short 12 months later.

In a competitive renewal last year, Sierra Leone was the fourth pick in the betting and led home the first and third favourites in the Trifecta. Twelve of the last 18 winners were in the first three in the betting, and in that time only two of the winners have returned at double-figure odds.

Run record and class clues

New York, with 10 winners in the last 18 years, has been the favoured calling post prior to winning the Classic, with Sierra Leone running in the Travers before heading to California last year. However, he did not win that race, becoming the sixth horse to win the Classic off a losing final prep, though all 18 winners had already been successful in G1 company.

Run styles

This division has been significantly impacted since the Dirt Mile joined the party in 2007. Previously runners that now run in that race had to pick - the Sprint or the Classic? Did they have enough stamina for the 10 furlongs? Or were they speedy enough for six? That often resulted in those trying to stretch their stamina and perversely going off too quickly, leading to a burn up which suited deep-closers.

Taking out the two synthetic strip years at Santa Anita, both of which were won by closers, on or pressing the pace has been the best run style. However, a late charge from way off the pace did not hinder Sierra Leone last year, after the Japanese runner Derma Sotogake set off as if he thought it was the Sprint.

Age group

Sierra Leone became the seventh winner from the classic generation to win the Classic in the last 18 runnings, tying for top spot with four-year-olds for the number of winners.

Draw

Twelve of the 18 winners have broken from the inside half of the starting gate but four of them emerged from one of the two outside posts too.

Guidelines

• Despite last year’s pace oddity, runners that race on or close to the front are usually favoured

• Although the outright favourite has been costly to follow, the betting has been a fair indicator of the result

• The draw may marginally favour those drawn in the inner half of the starting gate, but possibly not the one right on the rail

• New York preps have been historically important