LAST YEAR'S WINNER - FULL SERRANO

• Trainer: John Sadler
• Jockey: Joel Rosario
• Owner: Hronis Racing LLC
• US Tote Win: $28.80
• BETTING STATS
• 2007-2024
• Favourites: 6/18 (33.3%) | Level stake profit -29.7%
• Odds-on Favs: 4/6 (66.7%) | Level stake profit +11.7%
• Median winning price: 5.1-1
• 2008-2024 in California
• Favourites: 3/11 (27.3%) | Level stake profit -52.7%
• Odds-on Favs: 3/4 (75%) | Level stake profit +30%
• Median winning price:  9-1

By Barry Faulkner

After two wins for favourite Cody’s Wish in 2022 and 2023, last year it went to the easy-to-back Full Serrano, having just his third start in US after starting his career in his native Argentina.

Only two favourites prevailed in the first 13 runnings of the Dirt Mile. Then came four on the bounce to restore the equilibrium of chalk-eaters. However, two of that quartet were odds-on shots, as were two earlier winners, making it four-from-six jollies to prevail. However, five winners having also taken it at double-figure odds, with the one before Full Serrano being Battle Of Midway at 14.2-1 at Del Mar in 2017.

Run record and class clues

Only two of the first 12 winners of the Dirt Mile turned up from a winning prep, but then came five on the spin. Full Serrano finished second in the Pacific Classic on his prior outing to become the 13th winner to take this race after a finish in the exacta spots on their latest start. Half of the 18 had previously won at G1 level and only one hadn't won in any type of Graded Stake.

Run styles

Full Serrano pressed a strong pace the whole way last year, settling ½ a length behind the leader T Sanit Denis from Japan before moving clear in the stretch run. However, there has been no dominant run style, with a check on the likely pace profile a key requirement.

Age group

Last year’s winner became the third five-year-old to win this division but half of the previous runnings went to four-year-olds, while another three went to representatives of the classic generation.

Draw

When the Dirt Mile is contested at Churchill Downs it is a one-turn event. Otherwise, like this year, it is on standard US oval, meaning there is a dash to the first turn. However, in the 15 runnings on a standard oval, seven of the winners have started from the inside of the gate, and eight from the outside.

Guidelines

• Betting has been a more reliable guide in recent runnings of this division

• Check the likely pace profile; that should identify the run style required

• Runners with a clear class edge have been successful in this, but they are seldom bargains in the betting

• The draw has had little effect