LAST YEAR'S WINNER - CITIZEN BULL

• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Jockey: Martin Garcia
• Owner: Sf Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Bashor, Dianne, Determined Stables, Masterson, Robert E , Ryan, Tom J, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine
• US Tote Win: $33.80
• BETTING STATS
• 2007-2024
• Favourites: 5/18 (27.7%) | Level stake loss -31.7%
• Odds-on Favs: 0/4 (0%) | Level stake loss -100%
• Median winning price: 4.9-1
• 2008-2024 in California
• Favourites: 2/11 (18.2%) | Level stake loss -57.3%
• Odds-on Favs: 0/0
• Median winning price: 11.5-1

By Barry Faulkner

In 2024, Citizen Bull became seventh winner in the 11 runnings of this division since 2007 in California to go off at double figure odds, with just two favourites winning in that time.

Overall, this has not been a good division for favourites, although it has been marginally better away from the west coast, where the median price of the winners is an eye popping 11.5-1.

Run record and class clues

Last year’s winner became the 11th in 18 runnings to arrive with a G1 already on his CV, However, four of others had no better than a Maiden score to their names, with Good Magic in 2017 remaining the only winner to get his first success on the big day.

Last year, Citizen Bull became the 12th champion to follow up a winning final prep, taking the American Pharoah on his previous start. That made that race, and its predecessors, the richest source of last out winners, with seven, followed by five coming from the Champagne.

Run styles

Last year’s winner appeared to steal it from the front after the other major pace player, and favourite, East Avenue stumbled badly at the start, effectively putting him out of the race. That left Citizen Bull to win it off fractions that would not have stretched a decent claimer. However, decent early pace has been the run style for this, with deep closers only successful on a couple of occasions.

Draw

Fourteen of the 18 winners of the Juvenile have broken from posts 4-7 in the starting gate.

Guidelines

• All four odds-on shots have failed - avoid unless poverty is your aim

• Four of the last seven winners had their final prep in the American Pharoah, so start there but don’t overlook the Champagne

• Although not so marked in the fillies’ division, a central draw has been helpful here

• Early pace is generally beneficial

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