LAST YEAR'S WINNER - IMMERSIVE

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Jockey: Manuel Franco
• Owner: Godolphin
• US Tote Win: $6.00
• BETTING STATS
• 2007-2024
• Favourites: 7/18 (38.9%) | Level stake profit +11.1%
• Odds-on Favs: 2/3 (66.7%) | Level stake profit +13.3%
• Median winning price: 4.9-1
• 2008-2024 in California
• Favourites: 3/11 (27.2%) | Level stake loss -32.7%
• Odds-on Favs: 1/2 (50%) | Level stake loss -10%
• Median winning price: 7-1

By Barry Faulkner

Before the introduction of a two-day Breeders’ Cup, this division was the place to play for chalk-eaters, with 57% of the jollies winning, earning a level stake profit of 34%. Six of seven odds-on shots came home in front, returning an even higher ROI.

However, although things have quietened down, backing favourite since the expansion has still returned a fair profit overall. However, that has not been the case out west, despite Immersive landing the odds last year. It is also worth remembering that, in the two-day era, four of the winners of this division took it, lighting up the odds board with returns of $36.60; $66.60; $69.20 and $125.40 for a $2 stake.

Run record and class clues

In the first 11 years after the increase in the number of divisions, a previous G1 success was not a requirement to win this, with just three filles having attained that level, and the same number arriving with no more than a win in Maiden company. Since then, all the subsequent winners have turned up with at least one G1 success on their CVs.

Immersive became the fifth filly to succeed from a final prep in the Alcibiades, but the Frizette is the favourite last stop over, with eight of the 18 winners taking in that race last time out. Another three emerged from the Chandelier, and its predecessor the Oak Leaf, with the last of those, Champagne Room successful at 32.3-1 back in 2016 at Santa Anita.

Last year’s winner meant that Brad Cox joined Steve Asmussen on the top on the trainer’s leader board with a two of winners apiece since the increase in divisions in 2007.

Run styles

Last year, Nooni set a scorching pace, going through the first half mile in 44.99 seconds, while establishing a lead of 4½ lengths at that point of call, in a time just 0.3 seconds slower than it took the leader to reach that stage in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. She checked out soon and the group of fillies - generally pace-pressers - came to challenge, with Immersive proving the best of them.

Interestingly, although Quickick ran on to finish third, it was the pressers, rather than the deep closers who thrived, reinforcing that the view that early (but not kamikaze) pace is the preferred run style in this division.

Draw

Last year’s winner came from the three slot and strengthened the case that draw has had little impact, with class and run style being more important attributes.

Guidelines

• The Frizette in New York and the Alcibiades in Kentucky are the key preps

• Overall market messages have been mixed

• No trainer has dominated in this division

• A prominent run style has negated the importance of the draw