LAST YEAR'S WINNER - LAKE VICTORIA

• Trainer: Aidan P O'Brien
• Jockey: Ryan Moore
• Owner: Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier
• US Tote Win: $3.40
• BETTING STATS
• 2008-2024
• Favourites: 5/17 (29.4%) | Level stake loss -21.5%
• Odds-on Favs: 2/2 (100%) | Level stake profit +65%
• Median winning price: 6.5-1
• 2008-2024 in California
• Favourites: 2/11 (18.2%) | Level stake loss -53.6%
• Odds-on Favs: 1/1 (100%) | Level stake profit +70%
• Median winning price: 9-1

By Barry Faulkner

Aidan O’Brien has an excellent record in the Juvenile Turf but has not been anywhere near as successful in the Fillies’ division. Before last year, when Lake Victoria prevailed, his only other winner was Meditate at Keeneland in 2022.

Although both the odds-on shots to have contested this have won, including Lake Victoria at 7-10 last year, favourites have not made for profitable betting.

Run record and class clues

In contrast to Aidan O’Brien, Chad Brown has been the go-to handler in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Although he was not represented last year, his 22 runners previously provided six wins, earning horseplayers who backed his charges blind a whopping 75% level stakes profit.

Last year Lake Victoria became just the fourth filly from over here to take this division, with the last two coming from a run in the Cheveley Park at Newmarket. However, six winners turned up after contesting the Miss Grillo in New York.

Only one winner of this finished out of the frame last time out, with 12 of the 17 arriving from a win, and the other four taking the runner-up spot.

Run styles

After getting buffeted around and tightened up from her inside post going into the first turn, Lake Victoria was settled in midfield and did not make her move until the turn for home, putting a strong late kick to win. The ability to put in such a charge is the key attribute here.

Draw

The turf tack at Del Mar, like the majority in North America, is inside the dirt track, with a circumference of just seven furlongs, resulting in a short dash to the first bend. Nine of the 16 winners have won after being drawn in the inside half of the starting gate but last year’s emerged from post 12 in a 14-runner field.

Guidelines

• The betting may be becoming a better guide.

• Look for a strong performance last time out.

• Chad Brown’s record in this is second to none

• Pay close attention to fillies arriving from the Miss Grillo