LAST YEAR'S WINNER - REBEL'S ROMANCE

• Trainer: William Buick
• Jockey: Charlie Appleby
• Owner: Godolphin
• US Tote Win: $5.80
• BETTING STATS
• 2007-2024
• Favourites: 5/18 (27.8%) | Level stake loss -32.8%
• Odds-on Favs: 2/4 (50%) | Level stake loss -7.5%
• Median winning price: 5.9-1
• 2008-2024 in California
• Favourites: 4/11 (36.4%) | Level stake loss -6.4%
• Odds-on Favs: 1/1 (100%) | Level stake profit +90%
• Median winning price:  5.8-1

By Barry Faulkner

All the way back to the inaugural running of this division in 1984 - when Lashkari, trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre, took it - this has been, unsurprisingly, a good division for invaders from this side of the Atlantic, with Rebel’s Romance adding to that excellent tally last year.

Last year’s winner became the fifth jolly to prevail in the last 18 renewals, but this has not been a strong division for the chalk-eaters, with three of the winning favourites in that time going off at even-money or shorter.

Run record and class clues

Rebel’s Romance made it made it 14 of the last 18 runnings of the Turf to go to ‘Team Europe’. It was also the second time that he had won, adding to his victory in 2022 at Keeneland. He gave Charlie Appleby his third winner in the last four years, putting him two behind the five accrued by Aidan O’Brien in the last 18 runnings. Adding in the two he picked up before then makes him the all-time leader in the trainers’ table for this division.

Last year’s winner became the seventh consecutive last-time-out winner to score in this, but in the 11 years before that seven of the victors turned up following a defeat. Fifteen of the winners already had a G1 success to their names too.

Run styles

This may be the longest of the races, but it has delivered some of the tightest finishes, including the sole dead-heat in Breeders’ Cup history. Rebel’s Romance held on to win by ¾ of a length last year, and that made it 11 times in the last 18 years that the winning margin was that margin or less.

Although Rebel’s Romance raced near the lead for most of the way in 2024, closers have the greatest success rate.

Age group

As a six-year-old, last year’s winner became the oldest winner in the last 18 runnings, with four a year younger, but four-year-olds have been successful eight times.

Draw

The draw has made little difference in the outcome of the Turf.

Guidelines

• Although this has not been a helpful race for favourite-backers, four of the last seven have won

• This is one of ‘our’ races - treat it as such, but maybe look beyond the obvious

• Closers with a strong, late kick rather than grinders

• It takes a good representative of the classic generation to win this

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