LAST YEAR'S WINNER - STARLUST

• Trainer: Ralph Beckett
• Jockey: Rossa Ryan
• Owner: Mrs Fitri Hay
• US Tote Win: $69.20
• BETTING STATS
• 2008-2024
• Favourites: 5/17 (29.4%) | Level stake profit +15.9%
• Odds-on Favs: 0/2 (0%) | Level stake loss -100%
• Median winning price: 7.2-1
• 2008-2024 in California
• Favourites: 4/11 (36.4%) | Level stake profit +49.1%
• Odds-on Favs: 0/2 (0%) | Level stake loss -100%
• Median winning price: 7.2-1

By Barry Faulkner

This is a division of two halves, separated by considerations of trip and strip. Six of the first nine Turf Sprints were run over six and a half furlongs on the downhill course at Santa Anita. In those races, five of the six winners had already run over it previously. One of them in Mizdirection won five of her six lifetime starts on it, two of them in this race in 2012 and 2013.

This year it will again be contested over five furlongs on the standard oval at Del Mar.

The favourites that won this started at prices between 2.2-1 and 3.8-1, which resulted in good profits for the followers of the jolly. However, that hides a horrible truth. Looking only at the times this was contested on a standard oval, only two of 11 favourites have won overall - and one from five in California. The associated losses are in ‘read ‘em and weep’ territory, with last year’s winner Starlust the seventh to triumph at double-figure odds and Cogburn becoming the second odds-on favourite to fail to win.

Run record and class clues

Just one of the winners of this division did not have a Graded or Group victory in their locker before winning this, eight of them in G1 or G2 races.

Starlust last year, turned up from a ninth-place finish in the Abbaye at Longchamp, and only six previous winners had won last time out.

Last year’s winner became the second winner of this division from ‘over here’.

Run styles

Starlust closed from off the pace last year, but early speed has usually been a useful asset, particularly over the trip this year, rather than 110 yards further.

Age group?

This race has gone to three-year-olds through to six-year-olds. Fillies have also proved competitive, with five of the 17 runnings so far falling to distaffers.

Draw

This has now been contested 11 times over five or five and a half furlongs on a level oval, and the ability to break has proved much more important than the draw.

Guidelines

• Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints on standard ovals have been a favourite-backer’s nightmare

• A final prep defeat has been no bar to victory on the big day

• A swift break is more important than the draw

• All ages can win, and do, as do females