Ante-post tips: 2027 Cheltenham Festival

Published 20:50 - 16/03

This article can be a controversial one as plenty of people think it is too early for an ante-post bet. That’s perfectly fine and I respect that decision completely. However, I only share here what I do myself and personally I always like to have a few bets while thoughts are fresh in my head.

Last year’s column didn’t work out too badly either, with Wodhooh winning the Mares’ Hurdle at 5-6 favourite, having been advised at 8-1 in the hope that Lossiemouth would go down the Champion Hurdle route. Regular readers will be playing with profit after this year’s Festival, and I don’t think there is any harm in “re-investing” some of that for the 2027 Festival.

Some people may also feel that single-figure prices are too short now. I think the opposite is true, to an extent. They tend to be the ones that go off really short and while I’m not an odds-on player (for the most part anyway), I don’t mind taking 9-2 now about a horse I think has the potential to start odds-on.

I learned (or is that re-learned?) a couple of lessons last year in this column. Horses that are ground dependent are poor choices in an ante-post book and soft ground lovers are particularly risky given how Cheltenham racecourse drains these days. An extremely wet winter still couldn’t guarantee soft ground after a dry spell in the days leading up to the Festival.

Gold Cup winners don’t always come back, either. Inothewayurthinkin ran creditably in the Gold Cup, but last year’s heroics took a lot out of the horse. Gaelic Warrior was imperious this year, but 4-1 is short enough now until we see just what mark the race leaves on him. I think he is clear in the division, but it can wait.

I do like the angle of winners from this year though. Since 2021, an average of 4.5 winners had won at the previous year’s meeting. 24 of the 27 have been in non-handicaps and considering the Triumph is exempt from that (and novice hurdles are unlikely given there is only one bumper winner), it is not a bad return.

OLD PARK STAR

Arkle Novices’ Chase

Regular readers won’t be surprised that I’ve gone for Old Park Star of this year’s winners. I am a huge fan of this horse and have been since he made a big impression on me at Cheltenham in December. I went into the Supreme thinking he was the best horse in the race and while it was workmanlike, I loved how he hit the line.

Henderson’s comments in the build up to the Festival were slightly concerning for my ante-post play this year. He suggested the horse still has a lot of growing up to do and that he wouldn’t really come into his own until next year. I am excited as to just how high his ceiling may be.

It is always a risk to back novice chasers who haven’t jumped a fence in public, but I would be shocked if Old Park Star doesn’t turn out to be a very good one. Furthermore, he is in the perfect yard for the discipline and there is no doubt about his festival target either, assuming he’s good enough over the larger obstacles at two miles.

KOPEK DES BORDES

Queen Mother Champion Chase

I thought this was a remarkable effort in defeat considering it was a strong Arkle this year, run in a good time. Kopek Des Bordes showed his inexperience early and late in the race and both of those factors contributed to his defeat. Many will point to the final fence stumble, but the early part of the race was as important here I feel.

Some were critical of Paul Townend in the closing stages, but I think his confidence in the horse was a contributing factor. Perhaps it was over-confidence, but I think that alone speaks volumes. He may have underestimated Kargese to an extent too and after the stumble he was never going to rein her in before the line.

Not only is he the clear pick of this season’s novices for me, but he goes into a division that is open for a novice. Il Etait Temps was a clearcut winner, but I thought the race fell into his lap a little and the fact that Libberty Hunter finished second brings the form down a peg in my view.

It is certainly not an insurmountable task for a horse of Kopek Des Bordes’ ability to get to that level next season, with huge potential for improvement in him. I could see him being a short-price favourite for the race next year and while that is a risky position in that contest, I think the 9-2 available now in a place  is decent value. If he reverses the Arkle form at Punchestown next month, that price could be a distant memory. 

THE NEW LION

Stayers' Hurdle

It seems like we have been saying for years that this is an open division that requires some much needed new blood. After Bob Olinger won the race last year, I tipped Jasmin De Vaux in this column. This year, it was fellow veteran Home By The Lee that came out on top, in what was incredibly his fifth attempt to win the race.

I haven’t forgotten about Jasmin De Vaux, who I still feel would have gone close this year, but with his return from injury still uncertain at this point, I have gone down a different route. The update from Dan Skelton over the weekend suggested that The New Lion could be campaigned as a Stayers Hurdle horse next season and he would certainly interest me.

I haven’t always been his biggest fan, but I got him completely wrong last season at the Festival and suffered as a result. This year, I never felt he had the pace for a Champion Hurdle campaign, but he ran with credit once more last week. I think looking at his form though, he could certainly rattle the three-mile hurdling division.

He wouldn’t necessarily have to improve for the step up in trip, and if he produces the same level, it could be enough for him to go close. There is plenty of stamina in his pedigree to suggest that it is feasible and he has been strong at the finish over two miles and five furlongs in the past.

In particular, I think his Challow Hurdle effort from Newbury last year suggests it is possible (strong form with the likes of Wendigo and Regent’s Stroll comfortably brushed aside). The fact that it has been an early decision is a positive and if he was to win what looks like a warm Aintree Hurdle next month, he could shorten considerably for the Stayers'.