Last year’s race

• Winner: Scandinavia
• Jockey: Tom Marquand
• Trainer: Aidan P O'Brien
• Owner: Mr M Tabor, D Smith & Mrs John Magnier
• Age: 3 Weight: 9st 3lbs
• Starting Price: 2/1
• Season Form Figures: 1511
• Previous Best: 1st - Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1), Goodwood (July 2025)

By Paul Jones

With regards to the market for the world’s oldest classic first run in 1776, of the five British Classics it has been the St Leger that has been by far the best in terms of churning out successful favourites over the last three decades or so by winning over 50% of the last 34 runnings (18 to be exact) following the success of Scandinavia last year.

As many as 20 of the last 30 runnings have gone the way of either Aidan O’Brien (9 wins), Godolphin (7 wins) or John Gosden (5 wins) and O’Brien has a strong hand again headed by the Derby winner, Christmas Day.

The Great Voltigeur Stakes has become the principal guide over the last quarter of a century or so, having featured 12 of the last 30 winners and all 12 finished in the first four at York. That may well have been more except for the fact that the 2021 and 2022 winners were ineligible for the St Leger being geldings, and one of those in Yibir went on to win The Breeders’ Cup Turf instead. This season’s ‘Voltigeur’ was won by Maltese Cross, who is being aimed at the Arc instead, but the O’Brien-trained second and third at York in Pierre Bonnard and Christmas Day look set to renew rivalry with the Derby winner now meeting his stablemate on 5lb better terms for 2¼ lengths.

Joseph O’Brien may well provide the stiffest opposition to Ballydoyle with Enceladus, who followed up his Royal Ascot handicap win with success in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. Seven of the last 26 St Leger winners took their chance in that Group 3 contest on the Sussex Downs.

The case for the Queen’s Vase runner-up, Del Maro, is that he was only beaten a nose for Godolphin but then finished only third in the Bahrain Trophy. The Queen’s Vase was cut in distance eight years ago to 1m6f and so should theoretically suit St Leger types more now than in the past. Kew Gardens, Leading Light and Eldar Eldarov have all won the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot in recent seasons before adding the St Leger and Illinois was just edged out when he tried to emulate that trio two years ago. In addition, Southern France placed in both the Vase and Leger in 2018, and Harbour Law (2016) and Mastery (2009) placed in the Vase before they won the St Leger.

With regards to Derbies, a notable 12 of the last 29 Leger winners ran at Epsom a little over three months earlier and the Irish Derby has featured seven St Leger winners in the last 28 years. Christmas Day had Pierre Bonnard behind him in both those Classics this season at level weights. In the case of Continuous in 2024, it was unusually the French Derby as that takes place over two furlongs shorter.

The King Edward VII Stakes is also a notable guide with nine of the last 33 St Leger winners having taken part in that contest. Causeway beat Ancient Egypt in this season’s running.

Fillies have four wins (Sun Princess, Oh So Sharp, User Friendly and Simple Verse), nine seconds (Diminuendo, Hellenic, Quiff, High And Low, Ramruma, Unsung Heroine, Talent, Haskoy, Lah Ti Dah) and three thirds (Untold, Roseate Tern and Look Here) from just 30 representatives since 1980.

Five of the last 29 winners entered the race not yet having won a Group race and when Harbour Law was successful, he was breaking a big pedigree statistic as he is by Lawman whose Stamina Index is only 8.9f whereas the next lowest SI was 9.4 (Bollin Eric’s sire, Shaamit) in the last 38 years.