The bookies appear to have taken a bashing so far this summer with the prolonged dry spell making ground conditions and formlines more predictable for punters to get a handle on.
Indeed, a glance at how some of the big festivals played out this year for favourite backers may give punters confidence ahead of Doncaster . . .
Watch every race of the Betfred St Leger Festival live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 519) from Thursday 10th to Sunday 13th September.
Favourites
Favourites at summer festivals in 2026
Festival | W-R | Strike-rate | £1 | A/E |
Glorious Goodwood | 19-43 | 44% | +23 | 1.38 |
York Ebor | 11-31 | 35% | +4 | 1.15 |
Royal Ascot | 13-39 | 33% | 0 | 1.06 |
Favourites at the St Leger Meeting
Year | W-R | Strike-rate | £1 | A/E |
2025 | 7-32 | 22% | -11 | 0.68 |
2024 | 8-34 | 24% | -4 | 0.83 |
2023 | 10-31 | 32% | +6 | 1.06 |
2022 | 5-15 | 33% | +1 | 0.97 |
2021 | 11-31 | 35% | -1 | 0.92 |
Favourites enjoyed the run of things here in 2023 and 2022, but trailed in the profit column during the last two renewals.
One consistent thread came via a favourite's age, especially the younger 2-3yos, which is a good angle to use throughout the four days.
Favourites - Ages
Year | W-R | Strike-rate | £1 | A/E |
2-3yos | 31-94 | 33% | +8 | 0.99 |
4yos+ | 11-52 | 21% | -15 | 0.71 |
Drilling down even further with the younger 2-3yo favourites shows the bigger the price the better:
2-3yo favourites
9/4 or bigger: 18-49 (+£22)
5/2 or shorter: 13-45 (-£14)
As for races with a good record for favourites, the Group 2 Doncaster Cup has an outstanding long-term record:
Doncaster Cup - Favourites record
2025 - Won 10/11
2024 - Won 7/4
2023 - 5th 5/4
2022 - 2nd 2/9
2021 - Won 4/11
2020 - Won 6/4
2019 - Won 1/9
2018 - Won 2/1
2017 - Won 2/1
2016 - 2nd 5/2
2015 - Won 9/2
2014 - Won 11/8
The miserable record of favourites in the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes continued 12 months ago when the 7/2 shot Shuwari could finish only 12th – making it 14 losing favourites in 15 years.
Second Favourites
The second favs at Doncaster's big September meeting also had their winning years, including in two of the last three.
Second favourites at the St Leger Meeting
Year | W-R | Strike-rate | £1 | A/E |
2025 | 8-33 | 24% | +5 | 0.99 |
2024 | 5-30 | 17% | -2 | 0.79 |
2023 | 7-30 | 23% | +6 | 1.08 |
2022 | 3-16 | 19% | -2 | 1.01 |
2021 | 5-28 | 18% | -8 | 0.85 |
Second favs that ran last time at Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket (July) or Epsom returned a collective record of 13-36 (+£30), with a further nine placed, making an each-way return of +£38.
And, as with the favourites, there were certain races which proved more receptive, with the Champagne Stakes worth mentioning.
Second favourites (last six years)
Group 2 Champagne Stakes: 4 wins from 6 (+£9)
First two in the betting
While the above two in the market came in for an overall loss, they did actually come good in specific races.
Races won by one of the first two in the betting:
May Hill Stakes - 12 of the last 14 renewals; Aylin won the 2025 running at 5/1
Carrie Red Fillies' Nursery - 8 of the last 11 renewals; Half Sovereign won the 2025 running at 9/4
1m Handicap (Class 2) - 7 of the last 8 renewals; Treble Tee won the 2025 running at 9/4
Big-priced winners
As for hitting it big, then the following two races proved receptive to some juicy prices.
Sceptre Stakes
8 of the last 14 winners were: 8/1, 8/1, 8/1, 11/1, 11/1, 14/1, 18/1, 20/1, 22/1, 25/1
Class 2 Handicap 7f
5 of the last 8 winners were: 12/1, 12/1, 14/1, 14/1, 20/1
Money Talks?
Keeping an eye on the market can prove worthwhile at the St Leger meeting, especially in handicaps.
Adding a some additional criteria can help whittle things down when looking at the market beforehand.
SP shorter than opening show in handicaps
- 3-5yo’s
- 0-8lb higher than last time
22 wins from 84 runs for a level profit of +£51 (A/E 1.45).
There were five such winners at the 2025 St Leger meeting, including Getreadytorumble, a 3yo who had been raised 2lb since his last run, and was backed into 9/2 from 5/1.