Published 9.53 - all selections online
Ed Bethell has a 22% strike rate at Catterick and at the time of writing, is operating above that in the last 14 days overall. My first port of call is the EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (3.22).
We haven’t seen BORJINA since she finished fourth on her debut at Newcastle in September, but the form of that race has worked out well and she should surely improve on her second start. Her debut run looks strong, with the second, third and fifth all winning races since. Borjina was ridden patiently, but she made good headway with 3 furlongs to run, recording times of 11.68 and 11.30s for the 5th and 6th furlongs. These times were within 0.05s of the those recorded by the winner, Malachy’s Wish, who had the advantage of running alongside the stands rail.
Borjina recorded the shortest stride length in the field, reaching a peak average of 23.53 ft and so she was understandably tired on the run up to the line. As might be expected, her peak average stride frequency figure of 2.46 per second was the highest figure in the race and so the switch to Catterick should actually suit, where the emphasis on having a balanced horse around the bend can outweigh the need for stamina.
Most of her rivals had every chance on their latest starts so I don’t think she will need to find too much improvement to win on this 3-year-old return.
John Riches has a very good record with his runners in handicaps at Catterick, returning at a 17% strike rate and a healthy profit of £26.45 to a £1 each-way stake. His 7-year-old, EVOCATIVE SPARK (3.52) got the better of Vince Le Prince in a course and distance handicap here two-weeks ago and despite a significant swing at the weights and a fitness edge, I think he is fair value to follow up that win.
He is a five-time winner on turf and having been caught short of room at the top of the straight, he had to work very hard to run down Vince Le Prince, who enjoyed a much more comfortable passage. Evocative Spark closed with furlong splits of 11.76 and 11.90s, which was 0.57s quicker than the runner-up. He galloped through the line with a run-out speed of 33.4 mph.
That effort marked the second time in the last six months that he has won over this course and distance and took his record at Catterick to 2 wins and 1 place from four starts. He is up to a mark of 64, but he was rated much higher in his younger days and the way he finished his race last time would suggest that he will be able to follow up in the same grade.
TPD'S ADAM MILLS'S BEST BETS
3.22 CATTERICK
BORJINA (10-11 bet365 & 8-11 general)
3.52 CATTERICK
EVOCATIVE SPARK (5-1 Unibet & 9-2 general)
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.
