Last season's race

• Winner: Kalif Du Berlais
• Jockey: Harry Cobden
• Trainer: Paul F Nicholls
• Owner: Ferguson, Mason, Hales, Done & Hogarth
• Age: 5 Weight: 11st 7lbs
• Starting Price: 15/8
• Season Form Figures: F114
• Previous Best: 1st - Class 3 Novices' Limited Handicap Chase, Cheltenham (January 2025)

By Paul Jones

All but one of the last 27 winners could be found in the first three in the betting (and 18 of the last 22 in the first two in the betting), so this is not a race to actively go in search of an upset. 

To further underline just what a massive race this is for the leading fancies, the first two in the betting have finished first or second (in either order) in 12 of the last 21 runnings.

The biggest upset was when the subsequent Champion Chaser, Special Tiara, won at 28/1 for Henry de Bromhead who also won with Sizing Granite and Ornua meaning that he has saddled three of the last 12 winners. The Irish have won half of the last dozen runnings with Willie Mullins (x2) and Gordon Elliott also chipping in.

Twenty-two of the last 30 Maghull winners contested the Arkle if we exclude Ballinclay King in 2001, when Cheltenham was abandoned due to the outbreak of Foot and Mouth. However, the key stat here outlining how the profile of winners has changed dramatically is that all eight of those winners to bypass the Arkle have been in just the last 13 runnings; Tataniano, Special Tiara, Balder Succes, Sizing Granite, San Benedeto, Diego Du Charmil, Gentleman De Mee and Kalif Du Berlais. Six of that octet were trained by either Paul Nicholls or Henry de Bromhead.

If Kargese is sent over having won the Arkle then she will bid to emulate Nakir, Flagship Uberalles, Well Chief, Sprinter Sacre, Tidal Bay, Douvan and Shishkin who all completed the Arkle-Maghull double in the last 32 years. The were four Arkle winners that failed to double up at Aintree were Voy Por Ustedes, Contraband, Champleve and Edwardstone who all finished second.

As for the record of placed horses in the Arkle, positions filled by Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba, four horses have gained compensation for finding one too good at Cheltenham (Ashley Brook, Kalahari King, Finian’s Rainbow and Jonbon) since the race was upgraded to Grade 1 status and three Arkle thirds have also won since 2000; Cenkos, Armaturk and Foreman.

Back in fifth was Steel Ally. He had previously won the Kingmaker Novices' Chase at Warwick, which has proven to be highly-significant Maghull guide when it has beaten the weather, as six of its last nine winners that then took their chance here won. In addition, Diego Du Charmil was second in the 2018 Kingmaker before winning here. Both being speed-favouring, left-handed, flat tracks suiting good jumpers would have plenty to do with that being the case.

As the Mildmay Chase Course suits fluent, handy types with the class to hold a good pitch, we should not be surprised that prominently-ridden horses have a strong record and 25 of the last 26 winners of Maghull raced handily at worst, Kalif Du Berlais making all last year. In fact, it was only one of the top-10 two-mile chasing greats in Well Chief was given a successful hold-up ride in the last 21 runnings. The previous hold-up horse to win was course specialist and subsequent narrow Champion Chase runner-up Direct Route back in 1998.

Kalif Du Berlais’  success means that Paul Nicholls has now saddled eight winners and seven runners-up from 25 runners since 1999. Nicky Henderson has won four of the last 14 runnings, two courtesy of the subsequent Champion Chasers, Finian’s Rainbow and Sprinter Sacre, plus Shishkin and Jonbon, so four mighty good ‘uns.

Continental-bred horses have won 16 of the last 25 runnings. Fourteen of those were French-breds, but do note any German-bred contenders as they have recorded two wins and three seconds from a very small representation.

There was a time when backing five-year-olds proved lucrative (they have won five of the last 27 renewals), but that age group have produced no winners since 2007, which was around the same time that their 3lb weight-for-age allowance was knocked on the head, and since then their numbers have dwindled in the race. It’s a similar story for the Arkle. Looking back at those five-year-old winners though, you would be hard-pressed to argue that at least four of them wouldn't have won off level weights given their margin of victory. No winner has been aged older than eight.