Last season's race

• Winner: Caldwell Potter
• Jockey: Harry Cobden
• Trainer: Paul F Nicholls
• Owner: Ferguson, Mason, Hales, Done & Hogarth
• Age: 7 Weight: 11st 7lbs
• Starting Price: 11/4
• Season Form Figures: 1321
• Previous Best: 1st - Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2), Cheltenham (March 2025)

By Paul Jones

The first two winners of the race in Bregawn and Burrough Hill Lad later went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, as indeed in more recent years did both Native River and Inothewayurthinkin. Two other winners in Rhyme ‘N’ Reason and Royal Athlete later added the Grand National to their respective CVs, which is where 2023 winner Gerri Colombe is supposedly heading.

First run in 1981, this year’s running of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase will be its 12th as a Grade 1 contest and it’s been a good race for punters with 16 favourites (including joint-favourites) and four second-favourites winning in the last 28 runnings. In fact, only one of the last 35 winners started at bigger than 10/1, so this is not a race to go in search of an upset.

Two of the last four winners in Ahoy Senor and Gerri Colombe were gaining compensation for finishing second in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, in which Willie Mullins saddled this season’s 1-2 in Kitzbuhel and Final Demand.

Twenty of the last 23 winners took part at the Cheltenham Festival, but don’t just rely on the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase as, since 1997, Cyborgo contested the Gold Cup as a novice before winning here; Barton got run off his feet over two miles in the Arkle; Irish Hussar only found one too good in the now-defunct Cathcart Chase; Big Buck’s failed to place off top weight in the novice handicap chase which Caldwell Potter won last season before winning here; Dynaste, Terrefort and Lostintranslation all finished second in the old Turners (while Chantry House won both races); Holywell was following up his victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase; Saphir Du Rheu finished second in the Stayers’ Hurdle; Native River filled the same berth (second) in the National Hunt Chase, and Inothewayurthinkin won the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir. So, a right old mish-mash then!

The Brown Advisory can be a tough race but do not be fooled into thinking that the Mildmay Chase is any less tough because it is run on a flatter, sharper course as they generally go a real good lick. Aintree may be a flat, speed-favouring track but you won’t win here without staying 3m1f very well indeed as there is little chance to get in a breather. It is no coincidence that horses to have run well in this race down the years have a fine record in the Coral Gold Cup the following November, which is also very much a race where stamina is at a premium and two of the last three winners went on to finish second and first in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The last 29 winners had run in a Grade 1 race earlier in their career over hurdles or fences (14 of the last 15 having finished in the first two in such a contest) and 15 of the last 23 winners had won a graded chase.

Of the last 42 winners all but six had won at least twice over fences. Given that most recent winners have arrived here via Cheltenham, it isn’t a great surprise to see a mix of last-time-out finishing positions, so it doesn’t look essential to arrive here on the back of a good run, although preferable of course.

Half of the last 12 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton in which Kitzbuhel beat Thomas Mor, Wendigo and Salver.

Nicky Henderson is the race’s leading trainer with six wins including three of the last eight. Paul Nicholls took it for the fourth time last season and Colin Tizzard won with Native River and Lostintranslation.

It took 19 years for the Irish to first register a victory when Boss Doyle justified 5/4 favouritism for Mouse Morris in 1998. Since then, Like-A-Butterfly, Quito De La Roque, Gerri Colombe and Inothewayurthinkin have added their names to the Roll of Honour but, on the whole, they seem to bypass this meeting with their best staying novices waiting for Punchestown. Or at least Willie Mullins does, with the trainer having yet to win the race. He ran two well-fancied contenders last season, but one brought the other down at the 14th fence.